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Dissection of Bornholdt's model: examination of inner dynamics and effect of parameter change
Chrz, Štěpán ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
Dissection of Bornholdt's model - Analysis of Inner Dynamics and Effect of Parameter Change Mgr. Štěpán Chrz Abstract In this work we thoroughly analyze Bornholdt's version of Ising model of ferro- magnetism, with emphasis on its ability to mimic some basic stylized facts of financial series. Initially, we provide a breakdown of model definition and anal- ysis of underlying dynamics. Subsequently, we examine and confirm model's ability to mimic stylized facts of financial series. To examine robustness of this ability to parameter change, we conduct simulations over a set of parameter combinations. We conclude that there is a wide set of combinations that yields acceptable simulation results. We also note that the seemingly best results are obtained at parameter values close to border of this set. 1
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Relationship between liquidity and volatility of selected exchange rate pairs
Kotek, Martin ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Benčík, Daniel (referee)
The thesis explores relationship between volatility and liquidity of ten selected exchange rate pairs. Several volatility and liquidity measures are computed and the relationship between volatility-liquidity pairs is tested for cointegration and Granger causality; impulse response functions are computed as well. We find that volatility measures provide similar information (are cointegrated), while volatility measures differ to a large extent. A few cointegrating relationships between volatility and liquidity are found, but they are specific to only some currency pairs. Granger causality tests give different results for different currency pairs, but in general, the relationship between volatility and liquidity is two-way (feedback). Shocks in volatility or liquidity have little impact on the other and quickly fade away, usually within one or two days. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Modeling Conditional Quantiles of Central European Stock Market Returns
Burdová, Diana ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
Most of the literature on Value at Risk concentrates on the unconditional nonparametric or parametric approach to VaR estimation and much less on the direct modeling of conditional quantiles. This thesis focuses on the direct conditional VaR modeling, using the flexible quantile regression and hence imposing no restrictions on the return distribution. We apply semiparamet- ric Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) models that allow time-variation of the conditional distribution of returns and also different time-variation for different quantiles on four stock price indices: Czech PX, Hungarian BUX, German DAX and U.S. S&P 500. The objective is to inves- tigate how the introduction of dynamics impacts VaR accuracy. The main contribution lies firstly in the primary application of this approach on Cen- tral European stock market and secondly in the fact that we investigate the impact on VaR accuracy during the pre-crisis period and also the period covering the global financial crisis. Our results show that CAViaR models perform very well in describing the evolution of the quantiles, both in abso- lute terms and relative to the benchmark parametric models. Not only do they provide generally a better fit, they are also able to produce accurate forecasts. CAViaR models may be therefore used as a...
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How do the efficient portfolios at various investment horizons differ?
Růžek, Pavel ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
The Efficient Market Theory that assumes the homogeneity of investors' ex- pectations has several shortcomings and has failed to predict development of fi- nancial markets many times, recently. Previous research, therefore, has focused more intensively on incorporation of some aspects from Behavioural Finance to their models. This thesis implements another form of heterogeneity coming from different investment horizon preferences, and investigates the impacts on the selection of the efficient portfolios compared to the original Markowitz's framework. We employed the mean-variance model adjusted for the purpose of the work, and, additionally, suggested extensions that assure robustness of the model and the highest possible objectivity of the empirical results inde- pendently on the choice of data sets. The findings from our research strongly confirmed proposed hypotheses that the efficient portfolios do differ at the var- ious investment horizons and that the efficient portfolios for long investment horizons are less risky. JEL Classification G10, G11 Keywords portfolio selection, mean-variance, optimization, investment horizons, Dow Jones Index Author's e-mail pavel.ruzek.ies@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail kristoufek@ies-prague.org
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Applicability of online sentiment analysis for stock market prediction
Rýgr, Petr ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to explore various possibilities of performing online sentiment analysis and utilizing obtained information in stock market prediction. Firstly, several tools and sources available for sentiment analysis are presented and brief history of research related to each tool is provided. Additionally, Google Trend model is designed to evaluate whether information about searching volume of selected terms can be used to predict future movements of S&P 500 index. Strategy based on such model is implemented on historical data and its cumulative return is compared to classical buy and hold strategy. Furthermore, hypothesis whether it is possible to utilize publicly released news as a leading indicator for future stock returns is tested. Lastly, process of algorithmic sentiment analysis is described and its strengths and weaknesses are assessed.
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Efficiency, predictability and liquidity in the commodity futures markets
Čermák, Vojtěch ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
This thesis examines efficiency of several CME commodity futures and its relation to market liquidity over the ten years period. The goal is to find ARMA model that is better than white noise in terms of forecasting power and carry out analysis of market liquidity if we find such model. This is done by comparing selected ARMA models to white noise. In order to do that, we use Diebolt - Mariano test on forecast errors obtained by pseudo out - of - sample analysis using rolling window with re - estimation. Concern of furhter analysis are factors, that can influence the DM statistics. Main findings are, that we are able to find such ARMA model for small enough time period within the ten years period for almost all commodities. For most commodities, this sub period is not long enough to violate efficient market hypothesis. Only for palladium and lean hog futures this period is longer than one year. These two futures shows strong signs of inefficiency, as its predictability is not out - weighted by liquidity restrictions.
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Portfolio selection based on hierarchical structure of its components
Ševinský, Robert ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Rusnák, Marek (referee)
This thesis investigate empirical performance of three portfolio selection and covariance matrix models. The goal is to find a strategy that outperform equally weighted portfolio in the long run and survives even in times of finan- cial distress. Two models based on Markowitz approach absolutely failed in this context, however the last approach based on network analysis indeed out- perform the market even after risk adjustment of returns. Moreover this model have sparse transaction matrix throughout time, therefore exhibit excellent properties even in the presence of transaction costs. Results for network based portfolio were obtained from running a back test on 160 member companies of S&P 500 index for 6'000 trading days. JEL Classification G11, G32, C10 Keywords Portfolio selection, Minimum spanning tree, Transaction costs, Covariance matrix Author's e-mail r.sevinsky@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail kristoufek@ies-prague.org
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On the Link between Spot and Forward Power Prices: A Comparative Analysis of German and Hungarian Power Market Efficiency
Harnych, Pavel ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis examines the impact of shocks in spot prices on long-term forward contracts in power markets. A unique comparison of efficiency of German and Hungarian power markets is provided. The risk premium on week-ahead forward contract is scrutinized by both data inspection and by unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) testing. Additionally, the ex-post market's prediction error for this product is explained by main drivers of spot electricity price, which are presented in section devoted to introduction to power markets. Expectedly, Hungarian forwards with longer time-to-delivery are found to react heavily on spot market shocks after controlling for changes in short-run marginal costs of conventional power plants. Such outcome applies both to intra-day and weekly time horizons. However, this evidence was not found for German market. These results point out to immaturity and the presence of inefficiencies in Hungarian power market. However, Hungarian risk premia on week-ahead and day-ahead forward products turn out to be considerably lower than for Germany. This was confirmed by UFRH tests on week-ahead forward contracts, where a significant risk premium was found in Germany as opposed to Hungarian risk premium. This finding is surprising since Hungarian spot prices are more prone to upward...
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Forecasting in futures markets: Front, back and rolling contracts
Badáňová, Martina ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Adam, Tomáš (referee)
In the thesis we analyze sixteen commodity futures markets belonging to four families (energy type, grains, metals and other agricultural commodities) utilizing futures prices of front, back and roll futures contracts. As the tests for cointegration between front and back futures prices give us contradictory results we concentrate on roll contracts defined as the difference between front and back commodity futures contracts. We found that all commodity roll futures except natural gas and wheat futures exhibit long memory, which is usually connected with the fractal market hypothesis. Further, we employ specific ARMA and ARFIMA models and rolling window one-day-ahead technique to predict roll futures contract prices. Based on analysis of relation between resulting predictability and liquidity of roll futures contracts we concluded that lowest predictability is linked with the lowest liquidity among all commodities except metals and found evidence that predictability is positively dependent on liquidity among all commodities except metals, lumber, soybean oil and soybeans. The revealed dependence is strongest for energy type commodities. The relations and dependencies on the commodity futures markets are of high importance for all market participants such as hedge managers, investors, speculators and also for...
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