Original title: Uncertain trends in economic policy uncertainty
Authors: Buliskeria, Nino ; Baxa, Jaromír ; Šestořád, T.
Document type: Research reports
Year: 2023
Language: eng
Series: Czech National Bank Working Paper Series, volume: 16/2023
Abstract: The news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty indices (EPU) of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom display discernible trends that can be found neither in other European countries nor in other uncertainty indicators. Therefore, we replicate the EPU index of European countries and show that these trends are sensitive to the rather arbitrary choice of normalizing the raw counts of news related to economic policy uncertainty by the count of all newspaper articles. We show that an alternative normalization by news on economic policy leads to different long-term dynamics\nwith less pronounced trends and markedly lower uncertainty during recent periods of uncertainty such as Brexit or the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, our results suggest that the effects of uncertainty related to these events on economic activity may have been overestimated.
Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainty; Reliability; Reproducibility
Project no.: GA20-14990S (CEP)
Funding provider: GA ČR

Institution: Institute of Information Theory and Automation AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at external website.
External URL: https://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2024/E/baxa-0599307.pdf
Original record: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0357082

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-662676


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