The impact of monetary policy and the housing market in the Czech republic

Šuslik, David

I analyse impacts of monetary policy on housing prices and real household credit in the Czech Republic using structural VAR model identified by Cholesky decomposition. I focus on the period after the financial crisis from 2008, through the period of near zero interest rates from 2014 to 2017 until the end of 2022. I dedicate a chapter to major policy decisions of Czech National Bank in relation to housing market and household credit. My empirical strategy closely follows Bjørnland and Jacobsen, (2010). I identify six economic variables, namely exchange rate, GDP, inflation, interest rate, household credit and house price index. Subsequently I calculate their impact on housing prices and household credit in the Czech Republic. My estimations confirm findings of Robstad, (2018) that house prices respond stronger to monetary policy shocks in comparison with household credit. Yet, another finding is that household credit does not respond to interest rate shock while real house prices exhibit positive response. However, magnitude of this effect is relatively small in comparison with shocks from remaining variables.

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