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Rule-of-Thumb Consumers in the New Keynesian Framework: The Implications for Fiscal Policy
Adam, Tomáš ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Čech, Jan (referee)
iv Abstract This thesis investigates the effects of government spend- ing on aggregate economic variables in the Czech Republic. The standard RBC and New Keynesian models assume only forward-looking households despite the evidence of a sig- nificant fraction of non-optimizing households. These mod- els do not provide reasonable predictions for the response of consumption: both models predict its fall following a gov- ernment spending shock. Therefore, a variant of the New Keynesian model, where rule-of-thumb households coexist with optimizing households, is used for the analysis. We have found that fiscal policy has a positive impact on output, although government spending multiplier does not exceed one. Also, the impact on consumption is positive for several periods following a fiscal spending shock, which is consistent with the evidence. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E62 Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal multipliers, fiscal VAR, rule- of-thumb consumers
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When Austerity Didn’t Work: A Case Study of Greece
Stamatiadis, Andreas ; Chytilová, Helena (advisor) ; Prokop, Jaromír (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the austerity measures implemented by Greece during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. After providing information on the structural deficiencies of the Greek economy and how they created the crisis and affect economic growth, this thesis provides academic literature and empirical research on the austerity effects on the Greek economy and the Greek people. Furthermore, it criticizes austerity and the fallacies of the IMF, while also debating the Keynesian and supply-side approaches. The results show that albeit remarkable achievements in fiscal consolidation, austerity caused an ongoing recession, while failing to tackle existing structural problems of the Greek economy and increasing regional inequalities and deterioration of the Greek peoples physical and mental health.
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Effects of Fiscal Policy in the DSGE-VAR Framework: The Case of the Czech Republic
Babecký, Jan ; Franta, Michal ; Ryšánek, Jakub
In this paper we explore the potential of the DSGE-VAR modelling approach for examining the effects of fiscal policy. The combination of the VAR and DSGE frameworks leads theoretically to more accurate estimates of impulse responses and consequently of fiscal multipliers. Moreover, the framework allows for discussion about the differences of the effects of fiscal shocks in DSGE and VAR models and to some extent discussion about misspecification in fiscal DSGE models. The DSGE-VAR model is estimated on Czech data covering the period from 1996 to 2011 at quarterly frequency. The government consumption multiplier attains a value close to 0.4 at the horizon of four years. The public investment multiplier is about 0.4 higher, which confirms findings in the literature. On the other hand, the DSGE model alone implies a similar government consumption multiplier but a much lower public investment multiplier, suggesting misspecification of the fiscal DSGE model.
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Fiscal Policy and Debt Crises
Pikhart, Zdeněk ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Zamrazilová, Eva (referee) ; Pastoráková, Erika (referee)
Thesis deals with a fiscal policy issue with emphasis on the debt crisis. First specifics of the data capture of the government sector for the purpose of evaluating the fiscal position are analyzed. It includes assessment of the fiscal sustainability indicators and the historical reaction function of fiscal policy in the EU. The analysis of cyclical adjustment of the government balance, definition of fiscal impulse and the estimation of fiscal multipliers in the Czech Republic precedes the contribution to the debate regarding the optimal fiscal policy setup with respect to debt sustainability in the long run and sufficient degree of flexibility in the short run. The thesis concludes with the identification of the causes of the fiscal debt crises with the subsequent analysis of possible ways to resolve the already existing fiscal imbalances and assessing the appropriateness of the Czech government's consolidation.
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Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy
Ambriško, Róbert ; Babecký, Jan ; Ryšánek, Jakub ; Valenta, Vilém
We build a satellite DSGE model to investigate the transmission of fiscal policy to the real economy in the Czech Republic. Our model shares features of the Czech National Bank’s current g3 forecasting model (Andrle, Hl´edik, Kamen´ık, and Vlˇcek, 2009), but contains a more comprehensive fiscal sector. Crucial fiscal parameters, related mainly to the specified fiscal rule, are estimated using Bayesian techniques. We calculate a set of fiscal multipliers for individual revenue and expenditure items of the government budget. We find that the largest real GDP fiscal multipliers in the first year are associated with government investment (0.4) and social security contributions paid by employers (0.3), followed by government consumption (0.2).
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Kvantitativní analýza interakcí fiskální politiky a reálné ekonomiky v České republice
Valenta, Vilém ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Arlt, Josef (referee) ; Slačálek, Jiří (referee)
After many decades, macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy have returned to the centre of the economic policy debate. Both automatic fiscal stabilizers and discretionary fiscal stimuli have been used to support aggregate demand during the recent global economic crisis with a subsequent need for large-scale fiscal consolidations. In this context, a proper assessment of the size of automatic fiscal stabilizers and fiscal multipliers represents a key input for fiscal policymaking. This dissertation provides a quantitative analysis of the interactions between fiscal policy and real economy in the Czech Republic. The impact of real economy developments on public finances is assessed based on the methods of the OECD, the European Commission and the ESCB for the identification of general government structural balances, i.e. balances adjusted for effects of the economic cycle and net of one-off and other temporary transactions. I find that the underlying fiscal position, as approximated by the government structural balance, was mostly below the level stabilising the debt-to-GDP ratio since mid-1990s. An indistinct improvement in the structural balance can be identified in the period 2004--2007, which was subsequently reversed by the adverse structural impact of the world economic crisis. At the same time, dynamics of unadjusted fiscal balance was largely determined by one-off transactions in the past. The effects of fiscal policy on real economy are analysed using the structural VAR approach. I find that an increase in government spending has a temporary positive effect on output that peaks after one to two years with a multiplier of around 0.6. Tax multiplier appears to be small and, in contrast to standard Keynesian assumptions, positive. Government spending is supportive to private consumption, contradicting the hypothesis of Ricardian equivalence, but it crowds out private investment in the short run. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the analysis is complicated by rapidly changing economic environment in the period of the economic transition, relatively short available time series and a large number of one-off fiscal transactions.
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