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Predikce měnových kurzů
Dror, Marika ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee) ; Hančlová, Jana (referee)
The thesis investigates different exchange rate models and their forecasting performance. The work takes previous literature overview and summarize their findings. Despite the significant amount of papers which were done on the topic of exchange rate forecast, basically none of them cannot find an appropriate model which would outperform a forecast of a simple random walk in every horizon or for any currency pair. However, there are some positive findings in specific cases (e.g. for specific pair or for specific time horizon). The study provides up-to-date analysis of four exchange rates (USD/CZK, USD/ILS, USD/GBP and USD/EUR) for the period of time from January 2000 to August 2013 and analyse forecasting performance of seven exchange rate models (uncovered interest rate parity model, purchasing power parity model, monetary model, monetary model with error correction, Taylor rule model, hidden Markov model and ESTAR model). Although, the results are in advantage of Taylor rule model, especially for the exchange rate of USD/CZK, I cannot prove that the forecasting performance is significantly better than the random walk model. Except of the overall analysis, the work suppose instabilities in the time. Stock and Watson (2003) found that the forecast predictability is not stable over time. As a consequence, the econometric model can give us better forecast than random walk process at some period of time, however at other period, the forecasting ability can be worse than random walk. Based on Fluctuation test of Giacomini and Rossi (2010a) every model is analysed how the out-of-sample forecast ability changes over time.
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Bayesovský odhad DSGE modelů
Bouda, Milan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
Thesis is dedicated to Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models. Firstly, the history of DSGE modeling is outlined as well as development of this macroeconometric field in the Czech Republic and in the rest of the world. Secondly, the comprehensive DSGE framework is described in detail. It means that everyone is able to specify or estimate arbitrary DSGE model according to this framework. Thesis contains two empirical studies. The first study describes derivation of the New Keynesian DSGE Model and its estimation using Bayesian techniques. This model is estimated with three different Taylor rules and the best performing Taylor rule is identified using the technique called Bayesian comparison. The second study deals with development of the Small Open Economy Model with housing sector. This model is based on previous study which specifies this model as a closed economy model. I extended this model by open economy features and government sector. Czech Republic is generally considered as a small open economy and these extensions make this model more applicable to this economy. Model contains two types of households. The first type of consumers is able to access the capital markets and they can smooth consumption across time by buying or selling financial assets. These households follow the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). The other type of household uses rule of thumb (ROT) consumption, spending all their income to consumption. Other agents in this economy are specified in standard way. Outcomes of this study are mainly focused on behavior of house prices. More precisely, it means that all main outputs as Bayesian impulse response functions, Bayesian prediction and shock decomposition are focused mainly on this variable. At the end of this study one macro-prudential experiment is performed. This experiment comes up with answer on the following question: is the higher/lower Loan to Value (LTV) ratio better for the Czech Republic? This experiment is very conclusive and shows that level of LTV does not affect GDP. On the other hand, house prices are very sensitive to this LTV ratio. The recommendation for the Czech National Bank could be summarized as follows. In order to keep house prices less volatile implement rather lower LTV ratio than higher.
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An Econometric Approach to Efficiency Analysis
Chylíková, Alena ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Bisová, Sára (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the stochastic frontier approach -- a tool for the analysis of technical efficiency. First, general outline, basic terms and approaches to efficiency analysis are overviewed. Also the theoretical background of production functions is involved, focused on the Cobb-Douglas production function. Furthermore, the frontier approach and the stochastic frontier approach for cross-sections data is covered. Based on this, stochastic frontier model with time-varying technical efficiency for panel data is introduced with respect to maximum likelihood estimation. The second part offers an application of the model to assess technical efficiency of ice hockey teams in the NHL for the 1997-2013 period. Output of the production is measured by the winning percentage, inputs are salaries of three categories -- goaltender, defenseman and centers/wingers.
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Macroeconometric Model of Monetary Policy
Čížek, Ondřej ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
First of all, general principals of contemporary macroeconometric models are described in this dissertation together with a brief sketch of alternative approaches. Consequently, the macroeconomic model of a monetary policy is formulated in order to describe fundamental relationships between real and nominal economy. The model originated from a linear one by making some of the parameters endogenous. Despite this nonlinearity, I expressed my model in a state space form with time-varying coefficients, which can be solved by a standard Kalman filter. Using outcomes of this algorithm, likelihood function was then calculated and maximized in order to obtain estimates of the parameters. The theory of identifiability of a parametric structure is also described. Finally, the presented theory is applied on the formulated model of the euro area. In this model, the European Central Bank was assumed to behave according to the Taylor rule. The econometric estimation, however, showed that this common assumption in macroeconomic modeling is not adequate in this case. The results from econometric estimation and analysis of identifiability also indicated that the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank has only a very limited effect on real economic activity of the European Union. Both results are influential, as monetary policy in the last two decades has been modeled as interest rate policy with the Taylor rule in most macroeconometric models.
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Potential output. Econometric application for Czech Republic.
Kyncl, Jan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Bašta, Milan (referee)
I summarize different methods of potential output and output gap estimation including advantages and disadvantages in this thesis. I also applied two published models on real data for Czech Republic. Concerned models are Hodrick-Prescott filter and so called Production Approach. Both approaches are simultaneously used by ČNB. This thesis offers comparison between HP filter and production approach and comparison of Czech, Austrian and common EU-15 potential output and output gap. Potential output of Austria and EU-15 was obtained from OECD database. Comparison result refers to very similar progress of estimate obtained by univariate and multivariate method. It also shows different trend behavior of domestic economy against more developed EU countries, which is starting to be similar at the end of observed period.
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Modelování dopadů intervenčních opatření státu do ekonomiky
Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Institut pro ekonomickou a ekologickou politiku při FNH, Praha ; Vávra, David ; Straka, Ivo ; Splítek, Vlastimil ; Spitz, Jiří ; Pánková, Václava ; Malý, Miroslav ; Kouřilová, Jana ; Brůha, Jan ; Jílková, Jiřina
Metodologické aspekty modelových přístupů (CGE modelu a modelu HERMIN). Použitá datová základna, metodologie kalibrace parametrů. Základní modelové simulace; srovnání výsledků modelu HERMIN a CGE.
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Estimate of potential output for economy of the Czech Republic: Production function approach
Šálek, Pavel ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Školuda, Václav (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to estimate potential output of the economy of the Czech Republic from 1999 to 2011. In the first chapter I focus on description of the overall product of the economy, introduction and definition, mostly NAIRU approach, of the potential output and several approaches to estimate potential output. Production function is analysed in the following chapter from econometric as well as economic perspective. The most important properties of the production functions are also described in this chapter. In the end of the second chapter I deal with three most common types of production function. Estimated values of the variables in the production function including the value of the potential output of the Czech economy and relevant interpretations are presented in the last chapter of this thesis.
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Weather influence on speculation on stock markets
Horáček, Jan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Křepelová, Marika (referee)
Topic of this master thesis is to examine whether weather related mood changes are in correlation with price of stocks. Thesis focuses on middle Europe stock market indexes PX, SAX, ATX and DAX. Research is based on relationship between daily cloud cover and development of the indexes form 1995 to 2012. It also focuses on comparison of several different models, especially models of seemingly unrelated regressions. It shows that indexes PX and ATX are significantly negatively correlated with local cloud cover. Use of seemingly unrelated regressions offers slightly better results. The relation between cloud cover and stock indexes is not strong enough to be used for weather based speculations
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The Bankruptcy Rules in Linear Ordered Structures
Muchna, Jan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Černý, Michal (referee)
The bankruptcy problem involves the distribution of perfectly divisible goods. Particular attention is paid to the situations, where the amount of goods available is not enough to cover the demand. An example of real life situations that can be solved using various bankruptcy rules may be a division of a heritage or when a company goes bankrupt and its estates are sold to satisfy interested parties' claims. This paper introduces to the problem a linear structure of the participants, meaning that participants are now satisfied one after another in a preset order. It applies the equal awards (CEA) and the equal losses (CEL) solutions on the revised problem. Since their axiomatization is no longer valid, both solutions are extended and new characterizations are given in the thesis. The thesis contains a series of original proofs for both extended solutions and whole problem is examined in the setting of the well-known river sharing problem.
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