|
|
Life tables analysis using selected multivariate statistical methods
Bršlíková, Jana ; Vilikus, Ondřej (advisor) ; Miskolczi, Martina (referee)
The mortality is historically one of the most important demographic indicator and definitely reflects the maturity of each country. The objective of this diploma thesis is the comparison of mortality rates in analyzed countries around the world over time and among each other using the principle component analysis that allows assessing data different way. The big advantage of this method is minimal loss of information and quite understandable interpretation of mortality in each country. This thesis offers several interesting graphical outputs, that for example confirm higher mortality rate in Eastern European countries compared to Western European countries and show that Czech republic is country where mortality has fallen most in context of post-communist countries between 1990 and 2010. Source of the data is Human Mortality Database and all data were processed in statistical tool SPSS.
|
|
|
Multistate Analysis of Unemployment and Additional Statistical Methods for Modelling of Unemployment
Miskolczi, Martina ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Fiala, Tomáš (referee) ; Kotýnková, Magdalena (referee)
Unemployment modelling covers both view of the labour market such as is, economy and knowledge of mathematics, statistics and, thus, econometrics. The importance of unemployment seems to be even more significant after the period of crisis; high unemployment is not only economic burden bud serious social risk and psychological problem as well. In the dissertation thesis, selected models used for unemployment modelling and -- in some cases for its prediction -- are introduced. To be able to predict the future trend of labour market reliably means to be able to plan tools of active and passive employment policies effectively. Alternatively, it means to search programs and supports that help in reduction of unemployment. Specific applications of models for the Czech labour market involve model of multistate life tables, simultaneous econometric models and Phillips curve. Phillips curve of mutual "trade-off" of unemployment and inflation is confirmed in short periods, in longer and long period of time rather fails, it is not reliable. It is not possible to use it for prediction at all; it would be needed to predict inflation. Analogous characteristics has the Beveridge curve. Simultaneous econometric models for number of economically active persons and for unemployment and inflation de facto fail, even though they demonstrate the range of opportunities including point and interval forecasts. Period of economic crisis when changes in labour market principles occur means usually problem for such the models, which work well in periods of stable growth or decline. More, it is difficult to specify these models correctly with regard to threat of multikolinearity. Multistate models aiming at calculation of multistate life tables, or even multistate projection are extremely demanding for input data. But they enable to understand relations or transitions among states, respectively. It is very beneficial tool for comprehension and policy planning in the area of labour market and social affairs in the process of lowering unemployment. Forecasts in such a type of model are possible but difficult because it is necessary to predict probability of transition among states.
|
|
|
Analysis of the Demographic Characteristics focused on Gradutes and Requalification Programms
Kotrbatá, Alena ; Miskolczi, Martina (advisor) ; Průša, Ladislav (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to analyze the labour market status of graduates from 2002 to 2013 (according to available data 2005--2012) and then to evaluate the efficiency of tools to decline the unemployment among graduates. Data for this analysis come from Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports. Development of number of unemployed graduates is shown on their proportion to total number of unemployed people and their share to all graduates. This research is beside these calculations focused on factors, which affect the rate of unemployment of graduates, like total rate of unemployment, demographic situation, legislation changes etc. Graduates belong to specific workforce, which are more secured. Retraining is just one of tools target on that people. According to calculation, the efficiency of retraining programms for graduates is very high in comparism to other labour market groups.
|
|
|
Demographic analysis unemployment above 50 years in the period of 1999-2013
Komínková, Eva ; Miskolczi, Martina (advisor) ; Průša, Ladislav (referee)
The subject of the bachelor thesis are unemployed persons in higher age groups. The objective is to analyse and describe the development on the labour market of unemployed persons older than 50 years, and simultaneously describe the development on the labour market of entire population of unemployed persons. Data are analysed through economic indicators in the period of 1999-2013 base on publicly available statistics from the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. The result of the analysis is the outcome that absolute number of unemployed persons is increasing, primarily in higher age group. Gender ratio among the unemployed has recorded development thanks to legislative changes, mainly in the group of people above 50 years. Gradual aligning of ratio between males and females has happened in the analysed period, in all age groups with the exception of persons above 60 years
|
|
|
Analysis of fertility in the Czech Republic in selected periods within the context of political and social development
Slámová, Lucie ; Miskolczi, Martina (advisor) ; Šimková, Martina (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to analyze development of fertility in Czech Republic in selected time periods. There is a question of whether the important political and social changes affect the reproductive behavior of the population or not. The task is divided into two main parts. The first, theoretical part describes the historical background, political and social changes that occurred from 1940 to 2012. Also the theories of family policy and state support for families with children are described. The second part, practical one, is prepared by using data from Czech Statistical Office. Here are graphically illustrated demographic indicators mainly fertility, the average age of mothers and first-time mothers and the net reproduction rate. The observed data are then confronted with the historical context. The work suggests that significant social and political changes actually affect fertility. This effect, however, is only temporary. In the observed period, there was not such a strong impulse, which would affect the behavior of young families permanently.
|
|
|
Ageing of populations in Czech Republic and surrounding countries
Reichelová, Jana ; Miskolczi, Martina (advisor) ; Dotlačilová, Petra (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to show ageing of population in the last 23 years in Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Austria and to outline the future development in 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060 using a large scale of economic and demographic indicators. Ageing of population is a global phenomenon which has been here for many years and it is supposed to continue in the future. This process will have big impacts on pension and health systems of each country.
|
|
|
The consequences of an aging population in the financing of the pension system
Novotná, Veronika ; Fiala, Tomáš (advisor) ; Miskolczi, Martina (referee)
This thesis describes the pension system of the Czech Republic. The aim of this thesis is to analyse the ways of financial funding of the pension system based on current demographic progression and future demographic prognosis in the Czech Republic. The analysis has been done in accordance with the aging of Czech population in the recent years. Various suggestions for changes in the Czech pension system and some pension reform issues in some foreign systems vs. Czech system are also part of this thesis. The final part concerns with the overall assessment of the analysis and potential changes.
|
|
|
Development of the European Union according to selected demographic indicators
Illeová, Iva ; Fiala, Tomáš (advisor) ; Miskolczi, Martina (referee)
This diploma aims to analyze the development of the European Union Member States for last thirty years in terms of demographic indicators. First chapter is focused on the historical development of the world's population, followed by the development of the European population and political history of the European Union. Next chapter is focused on the most commonly used demographic indicators for international comparisons divided into groups according to demographic processes, their interpretation and calculation. The main part of the work is analysis of selected indicators for the Member States of the EU with regard to the European average of 27 Member States in the period between 1981 and 2011. Another chapter is devoted to modify data for above mentioned simple analysis and cluster analysis, which is located in the last chapter. Cluster analysis was performed using Euclidean distance and using nearest and furthest neighbor and Ward's method. In 1981 the furthest neighbor method divided Member States into five clusters and in 2011 the Ward's method divided Member States again within five clusters, but with a different composition. Original data for Multidimensional description is added to annex with the results of calculations and graphs.
|
|
|
Comparison of early retirement options from demographical point of view
Mačková, Zuzana ; Miskolczi, Martina (advisor) ; Fiala, Tomáš (referee)
The topic of this bachelor thesis is comparison of options for early retirement in the Czech Republic and assesment of their potential toward years 2014--2060. To achieve this, a model for calculating the number of potential persons to retire each year will be used. For over two decades citizens of the Czech Republic with 3 years and less to the standard retirement age can apply for early retirement. Upon granting their request the state begins paying them old age pension which is however permanetly reduced. Since 2013 there exist a new form of early retirement called "předdůchod". Any person with at least 2 years and at most 5 years to the standard retirement age qualifies for this new option provided she has enough funds saved in the so called III. pillar of the pension funding programme. The advantage of this alternative is that the standard old age pension is not reduced. The potential number of early retirees will change rapidly in the following years. The biggest surge will occur by the year 2040 as people born in the 1970's baby boom will begin to reach their retirement age. Their number will then decline again after the year 2040.
|
|
|
Cluster analysis of destricts of the Czech Republic ecording to demographic indicators
Saifrtová, Barbora ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Miskolczi, Martina (referee)
Master thesis deals with dividing destricts of the Czech Republic in to clusters acording to demographic indicators during the year 2011. After the theoretical introduction with exploratory data analyiss, factor analysis and cluster analysis is described practical implementation of agglomerative hierarchical clustering. Within the frame cluster analysis we compare results calculated by four methods of clustering, which are the single linkage method, the complete linkage method, the average linkage method and Ward's method. At the conclusion we select the method which divides destricts of the Czech Republic in to the clusters the best. Master thesis includes a prezentations of discovere results with the help of dendrograms and cartograms. The analysis were carried out with the help of the statistical program STATISTICA.
|
guest ::
