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Can Model Combination Improve Volatility Forecasting?
Tyuleubekov, Sabyrzhan ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Nowadays, there is a wide range of forecasting methods and forecasters encounter several challenges during selection of an optimal method for volatility forecasting. In order to make use of wide selection of forecasts, this thesis tests multiple forecast combination methods. Notwithstanding, there exists a plethora of forecast combination literature, combination of traditional methods with machine learning methods is relatively rare. We implement the following combination techniques: (1) simple mean forecast combination, (2) OLS combination, (3) ARIMA on OLS combined fit, (4) NNAR on OLS combined fit and (5) KNN regression on OLS combined fit. To our best knowledge, the latter two combination techniques are not yet researched in academic literature. Additionally, this thesis should help a forecaster with three choice complication causes: (1) choice of volatility proxy, (2) choice of forecast accuracy measure and (3) choice of training sample length. We found that squared and absolute return volatility proxies are much less efficient than Parkinson and Garman-Klass volatility proxies. Likewise, we show that forecast accuracy measure (RMSE, MAE or MAPE) influences optimal forecasts ranking. Finally, we found that though forecast quality does not depend on training sample length, we see that forecast...
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Growth opportunities and financing of renewable energy in Germany and Czech Republic
Tyuleubekov, Sabyrzhan ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Chytilová, Julie (referee)
According to Directive 2009/28/EC overall share of RES in EU energy consumption must be 20% and 10% in transport consumption. The 2020 target for Germany is 18% and for the Czech Republic is 13%. The major financial supporting schemes in the Czech Republic and Germany include feed-in tariffs and green bonuses. Likewise, we propose some ways to resolve some flaws of RES, such as intermittency character of RES, free-rider problem in case of quota obligations scheme etc. Though European Commission approved the shift from FIT scheme towards auction scheme, we analyse the dependence between FITs and installed capacities of RES. As a result of this analysis we obtained optimum intervals of FITs for some types of RES. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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