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Ocenění akcií na kapitálových trzích
Melnyk, Dmytro ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Žamberský, Pavel (referee)
In this paper, we examine the foremost valuation techniques and propose a target valuation of the publicly traded stock, swiss-based Ascom AG. The thesis consists of three parts and begins from the detailed review of the stock market, trading instruments and methods of equity valuation. Then we move beyond theoretical issues and continue with the updated valuation case, which has a practical implication. The main method used in valuation is the discounted cash flow (free cash flow to firm), supported by the relative valuation of a peer group of companies. The valuation is supplemented by the detailed financial model constructed in MS Excel. The final outcome of the valuation is 12 months target price of the valued company, while the final chapter emphasizes on the practical interpretation of the obtained results.
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Financial Risk Management - Comparison of Value at Risk Methods on Stock Portfolios
Yigiter, Yasin Cagri ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
Recent developments in the financial sector and with the effects of globalization, restrictions on portfolio investments are in lowest in its history. These improvements help to facilitate fund transfer between countries, which causes high diversity and degree of risk. Also, this situation remarked itself in unexpected bankruptcies of major international financial institutions such as Barings Bank. As a result, international investors and academics forced to discover easy and efficient risk measurement techniques. Value at Risk method has emerged as a result of these requirements. Value at Risk is the maximum loss that value of an asset can experience with a given confidence level over a specific time frame. The purpose of this study compares the calculations of Value at Risk Methods, namely Variance- Covariance Method, Historical Simulation Method, and Monte Carlo Simulation Method. Firstly, ten stocks are chosen randomly from Istanbul Stock Exchange for the analysis. Descriptive statistics of these shares are calculated, to achieve final results. Secondly, normality tests are made to determine the distribution of return series. In the next step, optimal portfolio obtained according to Markowitz model. Finally, Value at Risk values of the optimal portfolio calculated with three different methods.
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The role of rating in terms of FDI
Bohuslavová, Petra ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Vinš, Petr (referee)
The world crisis that countries were facing since 2008 strongly affected the international capital flows. Beside other factors, the cause was found in inaccurate ratings hence the rating agencies were criticized very harshly. The mail goal of this diploma thesis is to study the interconnection between sovereign rating and FDI inflow from 2011 until 2015. The first chapter describes FDI and main factors which play a key role in FDIs setting. The second chapter concentrates on rating and rating agencies. The third part of the thesis works with representative countries data in 2006 and 2015 and its aim is to compare FDI inflow and sovereign rating of each country using static data. Last chapter consists of three case studies: Slovenia, Portugal and Ireland and tries to find out if there is a correlation between FDI inflows and ratings from 2011 until 2015.
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Integration of the Financial Markets of the New Member States of the EU
Chaloupka, Jiří ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Záklasník, Martin (referee) ; Varadzin, František (referee)
The subject of the thesis is the integration of financial markets of the new member states of the European Union (hereinafter referred to as the NMS). According to the standard economic theory, the process of financial integration should be associated with several positive effects, among others a) the enforcement of the law of one price in the form of the interest rate parity, b) the smoothening and the synchronisation of the consumption growth among countries, c) the increased diversification of investors portfolios, and d) the decreased dependence of domestic investments on national savings. These envisaged effects serve in the thesis as the indicators of the integration of NMS financial markets with the global financial market. These indicators show that the degree of the financial integration differs among the NMS, despite the fact that they all went through the process of integration with the EU. However, the order of the NMS based on the degree of their financial markets integration could not have been determined as each test indicated a different order. However, most tests indicated that there is a trend towards more integration of the NMS financial markets as the dependence of the domestic consumption growth on the global consumption growth has been increasing and the dependence of domestic investments on national savings has been decreasing. Surprisingly, the indicators did not prove the hypothesis that NMS financial markets are more integrated with the financial market of the EU, despite the fact that these countries had to open their markets to investors from the EU and had to harmonize their legislative requirements. Contrary to the results of previous articles, indicators used in the thesis show that majority of the analysed puzzles in international economics disappeared for large developed markets like the USA. On the other hand, these puzzles persisted for the NMS. Given that majority of the NMS adopted euro during the period under investigation, results presented above indicate that the financial markets of the NMS were not fully integrated with the financial market of the EU and therefore one of the conditions for the existence of the optimum currency area has not been met. Such result also contradicts the hypothesis of the endogeneity of the optimum currency area as the adoption of the common currency did not improve the degree of financial market integration.
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Podmíněný Účinek Institucí na Hospodářský Růst: liší se systematicky úroveň institucí se stupněm hospodářského rozvoje?
Shvechikov, Ivan ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
The institutional quality concept, advanced by academic literature as a mean to enhance output growth, suffer from the absence of a clear implementation strategy. Considering that developing countries usually lack resources to be able to afford large-scale universal institutional reforms, the lack of roadmap puts substantial obstacles to practical application of the given concept. This thesis therefore goes beyond the simple statement of institutional primacy and sets an objective to differentiate the institutional effects relative to the level of development. To test it empirically, fixed effects model is chosen and interaction terms between the measures of institutional quality and the share of middle class are employed. Obtained coefficients indicate that institutions promote economic growth only when middle class share exceeds 25%. At the same time, different aspects of institutional quality exhibit contradictory dynamics. The control of corruption becomes growth enhancing only when middle class constitutes over one third of the population, while the relevance of government effectiveness for economic growth on the contrary decreases with the enlargement of middle class. These findings confirm the presence of conditionality and deny the existence of universal recipe for institutional reforms. Implementation of better institutions based on context-specific approach would therefore bring greater results in terms of economic growth than the direct adoption of best-practice institutions, so intensively advanced by the World Bank and the IMF.
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Česká republika: Evropská integrace a rozvoj ve struktuře obchodu
Christensen, Tobias Ibsen ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
Trade structure changes over time as a result of fundamental changes within the country or the world around it. This thesis will investigate the case of Czech Republic in the period from the transition period till today with the foundation in classical and neoclassical trade theory. The trade structure will be analyzed in regard to trade partners, commodity structure, relative comparative advantages and degree of intra-industry trade within an industry or sector. It will provide basis for assessing the effects of increased European integration which the Czech Republic increasingly engaged itself in with the accession to the EU in 2004.
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Quantitative Easing and its Impact on Wealth Inequality
Lazar, Stefan-Alexandru ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Čajka, Radek (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to show how the unconventional monetary policy rounds of Quantitative Easing introduced in the United States between 2008 and 2014 have led to an increase in wealth inequality. The need for the thesis arises due to the uncharted nature of QE and because of more and more information is surfacing to light which points to this connection. By analysing the distribution of these funds and adding it to the then base distribution of money supply, this study was able to determine a significant 10 % increase in the Gini Index. Furthermore it highlights how a large portion of wealth was transferred from the middle class over to the top 5 % income households. Starting from a set of assumptions the calculation is performed by extrapolating the data required and by isolating the system from any external variables. The result is a theoretical model meant to describe the mechanism that links Quantitative Easing to wealth inequality. Moreover a detailed comparison is provided with the effect of a conventional monetary policy such as Open-Market Operations. Finally solutions to this issue are being discussed from economical, political and fiscal standpoints.
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Analysis of specific instruments applied in the financial management of TNC with a focus on transfer pricing
Baluchová, Daniela ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Sato, Alexej (referee) ; Baláž, Peter (referee)
Transfer pricing plays a crucial role in the financial management of TNC as it significantly influences revenues and costs allocation among affiliates of TNC that are located in countries with different tax regimes, interest rates, political situation and economic environment. Recently, transfer pricing is scrutinized in respect of tax minimisation strategies adopted by TNC which raises various conflicts of interest with tax authorities in some countries of their presence. The main objective of the dissertation thesis is to provide a comprehensive empirical study on international transfer pricing in the Czech Republic from the perspectives of both taxpayer and the tax authority. With regard to the complexity of transfer pricing, manufacturing afiliates of TNC located in the Czech Republic were selected to be examined in more detail. The thesis is structured into five chapters. The first chapter defines theoretical framework based on which the analytical part of the thesis is elaborated. The strategies applied by TNC in setting transfer prices are strongly affected by the transfer pricing regulation and interpretative experience of the particular countries in which they operate. In this context, the Czech transfer pricing legislation as well as selected case law is analyzed in the second chapter. Given the complexity of the issue of transfer pricing, the third chapter deals with selected aspects that are considered critical when setting transfer prices. The fourth chapter presents key findings regarding transfer pricing strategies applied by TNC located in the Czech Republic to transfer pricing issues. The fifth chapter summarizes the approach of the Czech tax authorities to the transfer pricing audits and at the same time evaluates related risks borne for taxpayers in this respect. The thesis reveals that manufacturing afiliates of TNC located in the Czech Republic generally prefer non market (cost based) transfer pricing methods when setting transfer prices, whereby there are several factors influencing their decision making, out of which internal economic conditions and foreign exchange risk management are deemed the most important factors, while tax optimisation as well as restrictions on profit repatriation are considered relatively less important factors. The study further indicates certain inconsistency between declared functional and risk profiles and decision making competences. In this connection, it was found out that the Czech afiliates in which the foreign parent company is involved in transfer pricing set-up incur tax losses. In response to the increasing importance of transfer pricing and international initiative Action Plan BEPS (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) it can be stated that the approach of the Czech tax authorities has become more intensified and sophisticated. The Czech tax authorities challenge declared and actual functional and risk profile of taxpayers as well as economic substance of realized intercompany transactions. Furthermore, number of transfer pricing audits has increased and become targeted on risky taxpayers such as companies granting investment incentives or incurring tax losses etc. As a result, additional tax assessment due to incorrect transfer pricing significantly increases over recent years.
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Speculation on oil markets and its impact on commodity's price
Melcher, Ota ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Baláž, Peter (referee) ; Müller, Štěpán (referee)
This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.
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