Original title: Application of Sequential Monte Carlo Estimation for Early Phase of Radiation Accident
Authors: Šmídl, Václav ; Hofman, Radek
Document type: Research reports
Year: 2012
Language: eng
Series: Research Report, volume: 2322
Abstract: The early phase of radiation accident is characterized by minimum number of measured data and high uncertainty in both atmospheric conditions and radiation situation. Our goal is to provide an accurate method of radiation situation assessment that is capable to respect the uncertainty and provide informative predictions of its evolution for the involved decision makers. We propose a state space model based on atmospheric dispersion model, numerical weather model with local corrections and random walk on the model corrections and release evolution. This model is highly nonlinear and is estimated using sequential Monte Carlo. Since the model is significantly more complex that previously considered models and its estimation with naive proposal densities become too computationally demanding. We propose to construct a proposal density using problem specific simplification followed by application of the Laplace approximation. Properties of the resulting estimation procedure are illustrated on a twin experiment.
Keywords: dispersion modeling; particle filter; radiation protection
Project no.: VG20102013018 (CEP)
Funding provider: GA MV

Institution: Institute of Information Theory and Automation AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at external website.
External URL: http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/AS/smidl-application of sequential monte carlo estimation for early phase of radiation accident.pdf
Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0209671

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-115368


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