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Rating agencies and their importance for financial markets and economic policy
Svačina, Lubomír ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Pícl, Michal (referee)
This paper performs an analysis of rating agencies and evaluates their importance for financial markets and economic policy. The importance of rating agencies and their ratings is assessed based on two criteria -- independence and accuracy of ratings, both criteria are analysed in detail from different views throughout this paper. Independence of rating agencies is considered in terms of historical context and the most important development milestones and trends, in terms of market positioning and demand for services of rating agencies, in terms of ownership structures and financing models. Accuracy of ratings is considered by historical analyses of sovereign ratings from the times of the Asian financial crisis, the European debt crisis and sovereign debt defaults and restructuralisations since 1990. In the issue of independence, the paper has revealed several risk factors, mainly in relation to financing model "issuer pays". In the issue of sovereign rating accuracy, the paper has come to a conclusion that rating agencies were only able to identify the most visible negative trends -- defaults and restructuralisations of debts in countries, where the problems had developed gradually. On the other hand, in surprising and sudden cases such as the Asian financial crisis and the European debt crisis, rating agencies were suprised just like the wider investor's public.
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Do footballers follow Nash equilibrium?
Svačina, Lubomír ; Lahvička, Jiří (advisor) ; Koubek, Ivo (referee)
This paper deals with the question whether kickers and goalkeepers optimaly choose the direction of their shoots and saves in penalty kicks. It examines real data from play-off stage penalty shootouts of the football Champions League, World Cup and EURO which ocurred in years 2000-2011 and tests whether players play in line with the predictions of mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium model. Predictions of the Nash equilibrium are then compared to predictions of other alternative models of the game theory. Using these structure, the paper follows up on the research of Azar and Bar-Eli (2009) and extends this with new data collected in the circumstances of increased stress, higher quality and higher motivations of the players. Analysis yielded different results in comparison to the forementioned research, did not confirm the validity of the MSNE predictions, and thus indicates that those circumstances have significant impact on players' behavior in penalty kicks.
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