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Statistical analysis of long hydrological and climatological data series
Ledvinka, Ondřej ; Kotvalt, Václav (advisor) ; Fošumpaur, Pavel (referee) ; Jarušková, Daniela (referee)
2 Abstract Although entitled more generally, the thesis deals primarily with trend analyses applied to the instrumental records of hydrometeorological variables measured over the territory of Czechia, sometimes specializing in particular river basins extending to the neighbouring countries such as Germany and Poland. The hydrological data (namely discharge or spring yield) predominate, to which also the climatological ones such as precipitation, snow cover depth and air temperature can be added since they significantly influence the water cycle in Czechia. Under ideal circumstances, the trend analysis might answer the question whether frequently discussed climate change has its important role in the development of quantitative water resources characteristics. However, due to the record length, starting usually in the 1960s here, it is really hard to conclude if the discovered patterns are a result of deterministic relationships or if they are rather of random origins (e.g. they are a part of climate fluctuation cycle). Trends were identified mainly using the Mann-Kendall test and its modifications whose rationales are studied here in detail. Special focus was on long-term persistence that, besides short-term persistence, may adversely influence the variance of the test statistic. The detection of long-term...
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Seasonal probabilistic hydrological forecasting
Šípek, Václav ; Daňhelka, Jan (advisor) ; Kašpárek, Ladislav (referee) ; Fošumpaur, Pavel (referee)
Seasonal hydrological forecasts represent a very current topic, especially in the context of extreme hydrological events that have taken place at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century. These events are represented by large scale floods and long lasting periods of drought. This has led to a need for the effective water management strategies. These management strategies have to be able to efficiently distribute water resources both in the space and time. Seasonal hydrological forecasting systems constitute an essential part of water management strategies, as they enable the runoff estimation in a sufficient advance. This thesis deals with the seasonal hydrological forecasting system with a one month lead. The aim of this study is to apply three forecasting methods using an experimental watershed in the Czech Republic. The first method is represented by the reference climatology approach, the latter by the well-tested Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system (ESP), and the last by its newly proposed modification. This modification (modified ESP - mESP) is based on the restriction of input data established on their relations to the large scale climatological variables and patters. The first part of the thesis is focused on the investigation of possible relations among hydrometeorological...
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Metodika zajištění bezpečnosti historických vodních děl při povodních
Brouček, Miroslav ; Fošumpaur, Pavel ; Králík, Martin ; Satrapa, Ladislav ; Zukal, Milan
Metodika slouží pro zdokonalení stávajících postupů při zvyšování bezpečnosti historických vodních děl při povodních metodami hydraulického modelování na fyzikálních modelech. Metodika reaguje na aktuální potřebu zvyšování kapacit funkčních objektů vodních děl dle významně zvýšených bezpečnostních požadavků dle platné legislativy. Metodika je obecně platná také pro případy vodních děl, která nemají statut kulturních památek. V případě historických vodních děl je třeba přistupovat k jejich rekonstrukcím citlivě z důvodu zachování jejich kulturně historického charakteru. Metody hydraulického výzkumu umožňují nejspolehlivější modelovací nástroj pro ověřování stávajících kapacit funkčních objektů a optimalizaci navržených rekonstrukcí s minimálními dopady na charakter památkově chráněných staveb.
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