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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Analysis of drawing contributions from the Regional Operational Programme in the Košice Region 2007 - 2013
Hupka, Peter ; Kalábová, Markéta (advisor) ; Abrhám, Josef (referee)
Regional policy is becoming one of the strategic priorities of the European Union after its extension. The main tools of the policy are subsidies for less advanced regions in EU. This work aims to evaluate the Regional operational programme in the Košice region during the programming period 2007 to 2013. In the theoretical part author describes the process of forming the European Union, the overall characteristics specified by EU funds and gives basic information on Slovak Republic and Košice Region. The analytical section is dedicated to the characteristics of the Regional operational program. This work compares the individual priority axes of the operational program and the successful utilization of the allocation. For an objective assessment Košice region is compared with other regions of the Slovak Republic at the level of priority axis. Based on the analysis the author reviewed the regional operational programme in the Košice region as successful with space for improvement in the fulfilment of allocations
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The capacity of the European Union to form a common foreign policy: The approach towards Russia during the crisis in Ukraine
Grycová, Adéla ; Rolenc, Jan Martin (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee)
The thesis deals with the issues of framing and europeanization of the foreign policy of the European Union in the context of an actorness of the EU. These two theoretical concepts are applied on the case of an approach of the Czech Republic and European Union towards Russian Federation during the crisis in Ukraine. The aim of this thesis is to find out if the European Union is capabble of affecting the behaviour of a member state in order to create unified and operational foreign policy. The first chapter deals with teoretical definition of the two concepts and detailed description of the stances of Czech Republic and European Union follows in the second one. On the basis of these chapters the assessment is conducted. The last part firstly concludes if any attempt of influecing is present and secondly the success rate of the attempt is evaluated.
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Legal analysis on the management of the refugee crisis in the Federal Republic of Germany
Sikorská, Eliška ; Grmelová, Nicole (advisor) ; Kříž, Radim (referee)
This thesis analyzes the management of refugee crisis in the Federal Republic of Germany in relation to the applicable law of the European Union. In theoretical introduction, the thesis focuses on the definition of key concepts and the related areas of EU law. The second part is devoted to the policy of the Federal Republic of Germany led by Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel and the actions adopted. In the last part, these actions are analyzed in accordance with the main research question of this thesis, namely whether Germany is dealing with the immigrant crisis in accordance with the law of the European Union.
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International trade with fresh fruit and vegetables
Laketić, Aleksandar ; Štěrbová, Ludmila (advisor) ; Halík, Jaroslav (referee)
The main goal of my Master´s thesis is to evaluate dynamic environment of international trade with fresh fruit and vegetables. In the first part of my thesis I analyzed importance of the production of fresh fruit and vegetables for economies of selected countries. Next I had described the trade flows and patterns. In the second part I made a characterization of payment terms and trade negotiations in the context of international trade with fresh fruit and vegetables. Furthermore I made an analysis of import and export rules and regulations of the EU. Based on this analysis I came to general conclusions on the trade policies of countries and communities. In the last part of my thesis I applied findings from the previous parts on the analysis of two cases. The first analyzed case is the situation of imports of Chinese pomelo to the EU, with regards to maximal residue levels of pesticides. Second analyzed case is the situation of South African citruses imported to the EU, with regards to the problematic of citrus black spots.
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Czech administrative justice from the viewpoint of comparison with French and German system
Kukačová, Sára ; Matula, Miloš (advisor) ; Louda, Tomáš (referee)
Diploma thesis is devoted to the theme of Czech administrative justice, its current form and comparison with chosen models of European administrative justice, that is with French and German model. Goal of the thesis is on the basis of description and analysis of these models of administrative justice to get the comparison and evaluation of the differences and positive and negative elements of chosen models in relation to Czech system of administrative justice. The first part focuses on rather theoretical side and the introduction to this problem. Fundamental terms and characteristics are described and the concept of administrative justice is put to a broader scope. There is also mentioned the historical development of administrative justice in the Czech lands from year 1848 until the present day. The second part is devoted to the study of specific current legislation of chosen countries - Czech Republic, France and Germany. On this foundation is in the closing part accomplished the analysis and comparison of particular systems of administrative justice together with stating their mutual positives and negatives.
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Age management
Jirásková, Barbora ; Dvořák, Marek (advisor)
This thesis processes the concept of the human resources management with respect to the age structure of employees in the intentions of the Czech Republic. In the theoretical part, there is outlined the history of the application of the principle of age management, focusing on current demographic trends, forecasts of population age structure, the aging workforce and the need to preserve the ability to work into old age. Points to the need to adapt corporate strategy, personnel management trend of an aging population. It presents ideas for the main underlying programs and legislative measures which form the basis of the latest concepts and strategic plans in the Czech Republic and Europe. The empirical part deals with a specific level of allowance organization established by TSU and two sub investigation. The first is a case study of age management staff. The resulting data are confronted with the results of a survey among employees of the organization. The second investigation are interviews with members of management and employees of the HR department on the issue of the introduction of age management, their awareness of the concept of age management, the question of age discrimination, the issue of maintaining the continuity of knowledge in the organization and their views on these topics. The outcome of this survey indicates a willingness and readiness of the organization has already received age management principles adhere to and develop further.
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Documentation of the nature reserve Miletinska bazantnice (Czech Republic)
Stejskalová, Klára ; Skalický, Milan (advisor) ; Martinková, Jaroslava (referee)
The aim of this study is to document the floristic species diversity through research in the natural reserve Miletinska bazantnice. Documentation was carried out on the territory concerned during the growing season of 2015. There was a determination of vascular species. The research was mainly focused on endangered and protected species.
The whole area is part of sites of European importance under the Habitats Directive Natura 2000 Miletinska bazantnice was declared a nature reserve in 1954 with an area of 75, 43 hectares and is part of a small-scale specially protected area. Typical features of the area are remnants of natural Podzvicinsko geobiocenosis and therefore the reason for its protection.
Further it describes the history, characteristics of the territory and the natural conditions that are typical for the locality. These include soil science, climate, hydrological, geomorphological, geological and phytogeographical. On the territory of the nature reserve are recorded two memorial trees. It´s oaks (Quercus robur) called Zizkovy duby.
At present territories were found in protected and endangered species and classified under the Red and black list of vascular plants of the Czech Republic (Grulich, 2012) and Decree of the Ministry of Environment of the Czech Republic no. 395/1992 Coll. Into the category of rare taxa that require additional attention include species such as Carex otrubae, Cerastium lucorum, Daphne mezereum, Galium boreale, Listera ovata and Primula veris. The only species Platanthera bifolia is ranked in the category of endangered under both the Red and black list of vascular plants in the Czech Republic and under Decree.
In the field survey, attention was also paid to invasive species, sorted by Catalogue of alien plants of the Czech Republic (Pyšek et al., 2012) and categorized archeophytes (Arctium tomentosum, Cirsium arvense, Convolvulus arvensis, Chelidonium majus)
and neophytes (Arrhenatherum elatius, Impatiens parviflora) and described their risks (Mlíkovský and Stýblo, 2006)
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Aging population in the Czech Republic and its consequences
Tomsová, Veronika ; Prášilová, Marie (advisor) ; Anna, Anna (referee)
The thesis deals with the demographic progression in the Czech republic and consequences of population ageing. Teoretical part characterize basic concepts related to demography, ageing and the pension system and describe causes and consequences of population ageing. Analytical part is focused on period from 2005 to 2015. Process of population ageing is evalueted using selected indicators. Evaluation of progression population, age composition, average age, life expentancy and selected indices are part of thesis. Data relating to pension system are analyzed in the context of ageing population. Method of time series analysis was used for analysis and prediction selected indicators. The thesis contains suggestions and recommendations relating to the evalueted indicators.
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