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Development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic between 2006-2016
Ditrichová, Gabriela ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Klement, Josef (referee)
This bachelor's thesis is focused on the development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic in the decade between 2006 and 2016. A strong economic growth between 2006 and 2007, which had positive effects in the mortgage loan market, was followed by a deep slump in the form of global financial crisis unleashed by speculations in the real estate market in the U.S. The main aim of the work is based on the development of mortgage interest rates and the significant factors that affect their amount - to verify or disprove the hypothesis that interest rates respond to changes of these factors. The results confirm the hypothesis only in certain areas. The influence of changes of interest rates has been proven in the case of inflation and discount rates by usage of the econometric model. Factors that have not shown a significant direct influence of interest rates may have an indirect influence on their change.
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Changes to rights to claim foster care benefits since year 2013
ZEMANOVÁ, Hana
Foster care is a form of social care in the Czech Republic. A fostered children and foster parents receive from state a foster care benefits. Up until 2012 these benefits were set by Act No. 117/1995 Coll., on State Social Support. In 2012, Amendment No. 401/2012 Coll., transferred foster care benefits to Act No. 359/1999 Coll., for Social-Legal Protection of Children. With this change in law, there was also a change in the conditions of entitlement to claim foster care benefits and the establishment of efforts to professionalize foster care. The aim of my work is to analyse and compare the legislation of changes to foster care benefits from the perspective of the State Social Support Law and the Law of Social-Legal Protection of Children. I have tried to confirm or invalidate the hypotheses using quantitative research, this forms the empirical part of my work. Hypotheses were focusing on comparing the situation before and after the changes of Law for Social-Legal Protection of Children. As a technique I chose to study documents and using these documents I have provided secondary analysis. I have worked with the statistics of the Ministry for Labour and Social Affairs of the Czech Republic, the Labor Offices and the Regional Offices. The results of my findings have shown that more foster parents should be able to claim foster care benefits. Passing the bill on professional foster care has increased the interest in providing foster care, this must be seen as positive outcome. My research could be used as study material for other students of social science or for people who work in the area of social-legal protection of children. It could also be used as feedback for ministerial officials to sea the real situation since the changes in foster care law.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on a major phenomenon of the day: the migration of people into Europe, and Germany in particular. In this context, we present an analysis of the effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market. We show, among other things, that the incoming migrants will be far from enough to cover the demand for labour in Germany and also that they will compete more with workers arriving in search of jobs in Germany from Central and Eastern European countries than with German citizens.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Design and implementation of e-learning in the area of interest
Marešová, Nikola ; Husa, Jiří (advisor) ; Marek, Marek (referee)
The bachelor's thesis entitled "Design and implementation of e-learning in the area of interest" deals with buying used cars. The essential part of this work is a creation of e-learning course for buyers and other people interested in this area which aims to improve their knowledge. The participants will get an overview of the most common situations and problems they can meet when buying a used car. The theoretical part presents an overview of the topics of the issue of purchase of used cars. It may serve as a theoretical guidance to the e-course, it brings its content. The topics are based on the analysis of information from printed and electronic sources, supplemented by experiences of the author and experts in the field. The practical part deals with the creation of an e-learning course. It contains an analysis of the needs of buyers, the reasons for the creation of the course and the requirements of it, its objectives, a description of the used authoring tool eXe and graphic creation process from the creation of the course after its publication in steps. All this is complemented by the feedback from six volunteers who have expressed an interest in testing the course and then doing a review. Before the creation of the course it was necessary to analyze the situation and find out why such a course is needed. The acquired knowledge was then processed in the course by the synthesis method. For the evaluation method it was used a short personal interview where the author examined satisfaction with the course, its possible shortcomings and suggestions for improvements or enhancements.
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Acceleration Methods for Evolutionary Design of Digital Circuits
Vašíček, Zdeněk ; Miller, Julian (referee) ; Zelinka,, Ivan (referee) ; Sekanina, Lukáš (advisor)
Ačkoliv můžeme v literatuře nalézt řadu příkladů prezentujících evoluční návrh jakožto zajímavou a slibnou alternativu k tradičním návrhovým technikám používaným v oblasti číslicových obvodů, praktické nasazení je často problematické zejména v důsledku tzv. problému škálovatelnosti, který se projevuje např. tak, že evoluční algoritmus je schopen poskytovat uspokojivé výsledky pouze pro malé instance řešeného problému. Vážný problém představuje tzv. problém škálovatelnosti evaluace fitness funkce, který je markantní zejména v oblasti syntézy kombinačních obvodů, kde doba potřebná pro ohodnocení kandidátního řešení typicky roste exponenciálně se zvyšujícím se počtem primárních vstupů. Tato disertační práce se zabývá návrhem několika metod umožňujících redukovat problem škálovatelnosti evaluace v oblasti evolučního návrhu a optimalizace číslicových systémů. Cílem je pomocí několika případových studií ukázat, že s využitím vhodných akceleračních technik jsou evoluční techniky schopny automaticky navrhovat inovativní/kompetitivní řešení praktických problémů. Aby bylo možné redukovat problém škálovatelnosti v oblasti evolučního návrhu číslicových filtrů, byl navržen doménově specifický akcelerátor na bázi FPGA. Tato problematika reprezentuje případ, kdy je nutné ohodnotit velké množství trénovacích dat a současně provést mnoho generací. Pomocí navrženého akcelerátoru se podařilo objevit efektivní implementace různých nelineárních obrazových filtrů. S využitím evolučně navržených filtrů byl vytvořen robustní nelineární filtr implusního šumu, který je chráněn užitným vzorem. Navržený filtr vykazuje v porovnání s konvenčními řešeními vysokou kvalitu filtrace a nízkou implementační cenu. Spojením evolučního návrhu a technik známých z oblasti formální verifikace se podařilo vytvořit systém umožňující výrazně redukovat problém škálovatelnosti evoluční syntézy kombinačních obvodů na úrovni hradel. Navržená metoda dovoluje produkovat komplexní a přesto kvalitní řešení, která jsou schopna konkurovat komerčním nástrojům pro logickou syntézu. Navržený algoritmus byl experimentálně ověřen na sadě několika benchmarkových obvodů včetně tzv. obtížně syntetizovatelných obvodů, kde dosahoval v průměru o 25% lepších výsledků než dostupné akademické i komerční nástroje. Poslední doménou, kterou se práce zabývá, je akcelerace evolučního návrhu lineárních systémů. Na příkladu evolučního návrhu násobiček s vícenásobnými konstantními koeficienty bylo ukázáno, že čas potřebný k evaluaci kandidátního řešení lze výrazně redukovat (defacto na ohodocení jediného testovacího vektoru), je-li brán v potaz charakter řešeného problému (v tomto případě linearita).
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Právní a zdravotně sociální aspekty činnosti OSPOD jako ustanovených opatrovníků v zámu nezletilých dětí
BORSKÁ, Jana
The Czech Republic as a signatory of the Convention on the Rights of the Child has vested the practice of state administration in the field of care for minor children to municipalities with extended powers, where the protection of the rights and legitimate interests of minor children is safeguarded by state authorities of social and legal protection of children (ASLPC hereinafter). These authorities are incorporated to the extent laid down by the Act on Social and Legal Protection of Children (Act No 359/1999 Coll., as amended). The position and roles of ASLPC and their competence and jurisdiction are also regulated by the same act. The position of workers of these authorities and its legal embodiment is equally important. Regarding professionality, there are high demands on these workers. In the Czech Republic, significant changes in legislature have been made over the past three years. These amendments have led to the strengthening of the rights of minor children and to the establishing of new tools for their protection. In connection with the adoption of new substantive regulation of family law, which is now exhaustively dealt with by the Act No 89/2012 Coll., the Civil Code, new procedural rules have been established regarding protection of rights of minor children. Such procedural legislation includes (apart from the long-existent Act No. 99/1963, the Code of Civil Procedure) the Act No 292/2013 Coll., on Special Civil Proceedings. The decision-making regarding minor children has been vested mainly by the state into the competence of courts. The courts appoint the locally relevant ASLPC as a guardian who then represents the interests of minor children. The purpose, interwoven with and derived from the first one, was to explore the opinions of selected social workers of ASLPC and of district court judges regarding the defined problems occurring during the work of ASLPCs and courts while protecting the interests of minor children. These particularly include: the use of the tool of precautionary measure; problems of different territorial jurisdiction of courts and ASLPCs; processing of complaints regarding bias in various phases of the proceedings; professional training of workers of ASLPC It is evident from the proposals of both judges and ASLPC workers that it is necessary to unify territorial jurisdiction. The courts are suggesting the priority criterion of the address where the child mainly resides. ASLPC workers suggest the official permanent residence as the prime criterion. Bias causes problems in all phases of proceedings. It is obvious that courts take differing approaches towards the solution of this problem (some courts solve the problem of bias complaints filed by the parties while other courts do not) and for ASLPC workers it is difficult to assess how to act when such complaint is raised against them. The training of ASLPC workers - workers are obliged to educate themselves and their employer is obliged to finance such training. Not all ASLPCs are able to provide training in the required extent - due to financial reasons (the average costs of education of one employee pose from 9,169 to 13,400 CZK annually and they cover approximately 6 days of training). The heavy work-load caused by insufficient numbers of ASLPC employees prevents them from completing such compulsory training. As part of the examination of the "participation of a collision guardian in court proceedings" it has been found out that irregular participation of the worker in the proceedings (absence from participation in appeals proceedings); incomplete reports (directed to courts) from surveys in families. Based on comprehensive examination of the problems of territorial jurisdiction, it was recommended that requests are independently recorded and financial compensation is provided for ASLPCs who are requested to represent minors in front of courts, to draft proposals for precautionary measures.
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Characteristics of the working behavior of Czechs and Ukrainians
BYKOVA, Sofia
The aim of this work is to create a transparent and comparable characteristics of the work behavior phenomenon within the cultures of those states - what is common and what is different between them, or maybe incompatible .It is supposed to have some analysis of possible conflicts and their connection with the mentality. The primary reason of this aim choosing is the specialty I study. My work contains information that could be interesting and useful not only for me and my future job, but also for managers and other employees. Overview of examined issues contains specific points, such as the fundamentals of economic psychology and behavioral economics (symbiosis of psychological and economic opinion on motivation and rationality of individuals), theories of motivation and reaction to different occurrence, characteristic of the term "mentality", general points about the human impact of the world economy. For realizing the goals of my work the following hypotheses have been proposed - Czech and Ukrainian mentality have significant differences, though these cultures are close. - Ukrainian and Czech employees are able to work effectively in a team and find a "common language" in the workplace. The difference in mentality does not obstruct on it. - Employers could be interested in the Ukrainian employees taking into account their high concernment and motivation. All three of the hypotheses were confirmed by observed data and comparison of mentality characteristics. Czechs are often tolerant to other cultures, moreover Ukrainian culture is not much different and does not create difficulties in the working relationship. Based on the fact that the chosen company has no conflicts associated with work behavior and differences in mentality, it's hard to define my contribution to this organization work.
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