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Media and pre-election polls:quantitative analysis of the Czech major daily newspapers before parliamentary elections in 2010
Kálalová, Kateřina ; Kunštát, Daniel (advisor) ; Škodová, Markéta (referee)
The thesis titled Media and Pre-Election Polls: Quantitative Analysis of the Czech Major Daily Newspapers before Parliamentary Elections in 2010, deals with the manner in which the media grasp and process the results of opinion polls focused on the theme of elections, namely pre-election polls. The attitude of the author toward this topic is based on the agenda setting theory, which assumes that the media can, to some extent, set the topics and thus determine how (and that) the audience think about them. In the case of publication of pre- election surveys can therefore media, to some, but hardly detectable extent, influence the citizens-voters. For this reason it is important to focus on how exactly the mass media work with the statistic data and how they make them available to the wide public. Media coverage of these data should be complete and clear in order to prevent misinterpretation and for the data to be correctly handled. Through the quantitative content analysis of media outputs (in total 74 articles) from the five most popular Czech daily newspapers in the period January to May 2010 it was researched if the media work with pre-election polls results properly. Based on the analysis and its results, the recommendations were concluded for the situation to be improved.
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Media and pre-election polls:quantitative analysis of the Czech major daily newspapers before parliamentary elections in 2010
Kálalová, Kateřina ; Kunštát, Daniel (advisor) ; Škodová, Markéta (referee)
The thesis titled Media and Pre-Election Polls: Quantitative Analysis of the Czech Major Daily Newspapers before Parliamentary Elections in 2010, deals with the manner in which the media grasp and process the results of opinion polls focused on the theme of elections, namely pre-election polls. The attitude of the author toward this topic is based on the agenda setting theory, which assumes that the media can, to some extent, set the topics and thus determine how (and that) the audience think about them. In the case of publication of pre- election surveys can therefore media, to some, but hardly detectable extent, influence the citizens-voters. For this reason it is important to focus on how exactly the mass media work with the statistic data and how they make them available to the wide public. Media coverage of these data should be complete and clear in order to prevent misinterpretation and for the data to be correctly handled. Through the quantitative content analysis of media outputs (in total 74 articles) from the five most popular Czech daily newspapers in the period January to May 2010 it was researched if the media work with pre-election polls results properly. Based on the analysis and its results, the recommendations were concluded for the situation to be improved.
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Comparison of selected data collection techniques of quantitative research
Utler, Richard ; Tahal, Radek (advisor) ; Forst, Václav (referee)
The thesis analyses the differences that result from using of specific data collection method, computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and computer assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). The main findings are based on election model built by research agency TNS Aisa for elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic in 2013. The aim of the thesis is to determine whether the chosen method of data collection influences the results of the estimated electoral preferences, to determine in which sociodemographic categories it is happening and whether the differences in the obtained data are related to the ideological orientation of the political parties. The dependence of the results on the data collection method is assessed by the chi-quadrate independence test. Further, through personal interviews with researchers, it is determined at what stage of the research process the data may be distorted and what its possible causes are. The benefit of the thesis is the finding that the chosen method of collection influences the established preferences among voters aged 30-44, university graduates and voters living in Prague. In these groups, the left-hand side ČSSD is preferred more by personal interviewing and right-handed TOP 09 through telephone interviewing. The collection of data itself was evaluated by the most risky phase of the research process, in which possible distortion could occur. While the accuracy of personal interviewing depends largely on the interviewer's personality, the sources of distortion of the telephone inquiry result more from the nature of the use of the phone itself.
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