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The Trade Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Based on Gravity Model.
Kong, Xiangyi ; Jeřábek, Petr (advisor) ; Chondrogiannis, Ilias (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
In view of the postponement of negotiations for the modernization of the EU-Turkey customs union, this paper is aimed to look back and examine the ex-post impacts of the CU by examining its trade creation and diversion effects. The study tests effects of 44 countries (including Turkey, 28 EU and 15 non-EU countries) with aggregated data for time period from 1989 to 2019 and disaggregated sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2019. For estimation, the gravity model with strong theoretical and empirical foundation is used by combining various fixed effects with PPML method. The results from the aggregated analysis confirm the trade-promoting effects of the EU-Turkey customs union with mixed effects on both trade within the members (intra-trade creation effects) and trade with non- members (extra-trade creation effects). But the trade diversion is not significantly proved in the model. Besides, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU effect is found across different industries, suggesting the CU has significantly improved the trade on textiles, transportation, machinery, metals and plastics/rubbers, but negligibly influence agriculture, mineral and chemicals. Furthermore, the study also evidences that the impact of the CU is stronger in EU's export to Turkey than Turkey's export to the EU. Finally, CU's...
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International Trade of Slovakia: Influence of EU Membership and Euro Adoption
Bušfyová, Lucia ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Hashi, Iraj (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to provide a comprehensive survey on the recent development of Slovak international trade in particular due to the EU accession and euro adoption. Overall, there are mostly predictions for some positive impact on Slovak trade flows stemming from these actions, however their magnitudes differ greatly. This literature review provides an overview of the main articles relevant to this topic and lists their main conclusions.
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Vliv východního rozšíření EU na obchod vybraných nových členských států se třetími zeměmi (Trade Effects of the East Enlargement in the CEECs)
Polášek, Petr ; Němcová, Ingeborg (advisor) ; Joklová, Kateřina (referee)
The thesis analyses the effect of the Eastern enlargement on goods flows into four CEECs. In the beginning, the Eastern enlargement and numerous related economic effects are briefly characterised. After that it focuses on trade diversion and trade creation effects, starting with a concise discussion of the traditional customs union theory and followed by the explanation of the choice of the estimation method. A gravity model applied on a panel data set is then used to model the import flows into the EU15 and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The results showed that a careful choice of the model specification and estimating technique is needed and the model that controlled for four sources of unobserved heterogeneity (time, country pair, importer, and exporter specific characteristics) was chosen. Based on this model's results, we could expect a significant increase of imports from EFTA into these countries but aggregately we should not expect any trade diversion as no further redirecting of import flows from the rest of the world is predicted. Eventually, some of the real trade flow developments (territorial and commodity structures and revealed comparative advantages of selected regions) are described.
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