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Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
Rychalovska, Y. ; Slobodyan, Sergey ; Wouters, R.
The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey information improves the model forecast for inflation and for other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on an Adaptive Learning setup can exploit survey information more efficiently than their Rational Expectations counterparts. The resulting time-variation in the perceived inflation target, in inflation persistence, and in the sensitivity of inflation to various shocks provide a rich and consistent description of the joint dynamics of realized and expected inflation. Our framework produces a reasonable interpretation of the post-Covid inflation dynamics. Our learning model successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.
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Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y. ; Slobodyan, Sergey ; Wouters, R.
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys.
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Wage dynamics and financial performance: evidence from Czech firms
Babecký, Jan ; Galuščák, Kamil ; Žigraiová, Diana
This paper examines how the financial performance of a firm affects its wage policy. For this purpose, we match data on Czech firms from the Wage Dynamics Network survey covering the period 2010–2013 with balance sheet data. Controlling for a number of firm-specific characteristics and the environment in which firms operate, we find that financial performance matters for wage setting: contractual wages are more likely to grow in firms with a higher ratio of cash flow to total assets and in firms that invest more. Conversely, firms that froze or cut contractual wages during the survey period had lower cash flow over total assets, but not necessarily a lower investment ratio. The flexible wage component exhibits a similar pattern, but is more sensitive to demand shocks and firms’ financial conditions.
Fulltext:  PDF
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Survey on wage and price formation of Czech firms
Babecký, Jan ; Dybczak, Kamil ; Galuščák, Kamil
Using an ad-hoc survey at the firm level, writers investigate the determinants of wage and price-setting practices in Czech firms, the presence and sources of wage rigidity, and reactions of firms to hypothetical shocks. Although the evidence of downward wage rigidity is not widespread, they find particular relevance of efficiency wage models for wage rigidity, while implicit contract theory is relevant in firms employing mainly highskilled labour.
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History and present of Population and Housing Census in our territory
Fabiánová, Jana ; Mazouch, Petr (advisor) ; Závodský, Prokop (referee)
Just completed Census 2011 caused a number of issues, in particular whether this type of investigation is required for the company. The theme of the work presented is not only the last assessment, but in particular the analysis of the previous censuses from the perspective of survey data and information, ways of implementation of the censuses, processing and presentation of data, with emphasis on continuity in these areas. The main objective of the work is to compare the data of survey in each of the censuses from the history to the present. On the basis of the results of this comparison are selected data with continuous time series and these are then analyzed in more detail. Their representation is used in addition to the absolute and the relative data in tables and column, line and pie charts.
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