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Behavioural Breaks in the Heterogeneous Agent Model
Kukačka, Jiří ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Víšek, Jan Ámos (referee)
This thesis merges the fields of Heterogeneous Agent Models (HAMs) and Be- havioural Finance in order to bridge the main deficiencies of both approaches and to examine whether they can complement one another. Our approach suggests an alternative tool for examining HAM price dynamics and brings an original way of dealing with problematic empirical validation. First, we present the original model and discuss various extensions and attempts at empirical estimation. Next, we develop a unique benchmark dataset, covering five par- ticularly turbulent U.S. stock market periods, and reveal an interesting pattern in this data. The main body applies a numerical analysis of the HAM extended with the selected Behavioural Finance findings: herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment. Using Wolfram Mathematica we perform Monte Carlo simu- lations of a developed algorithm. We show that the selected findings can be well modelled via the HAM and that they extend the original HAM considera- bly. Various HAM modifications lead to significantly different results and HAM is also able to partially replicate price behaviour during turbulent stock market periods. Bibliographic Record Kukačka, J. (2012): Behavioural Breaks in the Heterogeneous Agent Model. Rigorous thesis, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social...
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Behavioural Breaks in the Heterogeneous Agent Model
Kukačka, Jiří ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Víšek, Jan Ámos (referee)
This thesis merges the fields of Heterogeneous Agent Models (HAMs) and Be- havioural Finance in order to bridge the main deficiencies of both approaches and to examine whether they can complement one another. Our approach suggests an alternative tool for examining HAM price dynamics and brings an original way of dealing with problematic empirical validation. First, we present the original model and discuss various extensions and attempts at empirical estimation. Next, we develop a unique benchmark dataset, covering five par- ticularly turbulent U.S. stock market periods, and reveal an interesting pattern in this data. The main body applies a numerical analysis of the HAM extended with the selected Behavioural Finance findings: herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment. Using Wolfram Mathematica we perform Monte Carlo sim- ulations of a developed algorithm. We show that the selected findings can be well modelled via the HAM and that they extend the original HAM consider- ably. Various HAM modifications lead to significantly different results and HAM is also able to partially replicate price behaviour during turbulent stock market periods. Bibliographic Record Kukačka, J. (2011): Behavioural Breaks in the Heterogeneous Agent Model. Master thesis, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences,...
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Analysis of the collapses of the stock market crash
Ivanová, Jarmila ; Musílek, Petr (advisor)
Bachelor work Analysis of the collapses of stock markets is aimed at dismantling the phenomena when a sudden drop in the stock markets , so called crash or collapse occur. The theoretical part deals with the definition of a stock market collapse and continues with an explanation of the creation and causes of the collapse by means of using the theory of speculative bubbles. Speculative bubble theory focuses on investor psychology and behaviour of investors' public. Clarification of speculative bubbles in this work is described by crowd psychology of Gustav Le Bon and the theory of noisy trading. As a direct contradiction to the existence of speculative bubbles the theory of efficient markets is mentioned here. The subject of the analytical part of the work is to study the stock market for the specific purpose of analyzing the particular collapses of stock markets, their causes, circumstances and consequences.
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Stock Market Crashes
El-Moussawi, Chadi ; Musílek, Petr (advisor)
This bachelor thesis is dedicated to studying stock market situation know as stock market crash, which composes of sudden, unexpected drop in prices of equities. This problem is closely related with the origin of speculative bubbles. Economists often try to explain this phenomenon through the studies of psychological behavior, thus we will refer to psychological analysis as a mean of describing stock market crash. In the theoretical part will also be discussed the theory of speculative bubbles and the theory of efficient markets, which is in contradiction with the former. In the second part of the thesis will be discussed different cases of stock market crashes. I believe that through analysing these situations I will be able to define main causes of the creation of speculative bubbles and the crashes that follow them.
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