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Forecasts of the public debt for the Czech Republic
Sentivany, Daniel ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Seman, Vojtěch (referee)
Main goal of this thesis is to forecast future trajectory of the public debt level of the Czech Republic when taking into account ongoing fiscal reforms of the government and the after- math of the global financial crisis. A short survey of existing literature concerning fiscal austerity is presented in the first part, followed by the further motivation for the forecast- ing of the public debt level. Second part of thesis focuses mainly on the most important question, which is sustainability of the debt. We found out, that the public debt of the Czech Republic is clearly unsustainable, we also calculated so called fiscal gap to determine the amount needed to sustain it. The last third part contains numerous scenarios showing the future development of the public debt of the Czech Republic starting the year 2003, up to the year 2060. According to our results when assuming that no strict fiscal reforms will be introduced by the government in the following decades, we found that the level of the debt in the year 2060 will exceed 260% of GDP. Keywords: public debt; fiscal gap; public deficit; public budgets; public debt forecast; sustainability; debt consolidation; debt management Author's e-mail: sentivany.daniel@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail: jansky@fsv.cuni.cz
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Forecasts of the public debt for the Czech Republic
Sentivany, Daniel ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Seman, Vojtěch (referee)
Main goal of this thesis is to forecast future trajectory of the public debt level of the Czech Republic when taking into account ongoing fiscal reforms of the government and the after- math of the global financial crisis. A short survey of existing literature concerning fiscal austerity is presented in the first part, followed by the further motivation for the forecast- ing of the public debt level. Second part of thesis focuses mainly on the most important question, which is sustainability of the debt. We found out, that the public debt of the Czech Republic is clearly unsustainable, we also calculated so called fiscal gap to determine the amount needed to sustain it. The last third part contains numerous scenarios showing the future development of the public debt of the Czech Republic starting the year 2003, up to the year 2060. According to our results when assuming that no strict fiscal reforms will be introduced by the government in the following decades, we found that the level of the debt in the year 2060 will exceed 260% of GDP. Keywords: public debt; fiscal gap; public deficit; public budgets; public debt forecast; sustainability; debt consolidation; debt management Author's e-mail: sentivany.daniel@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail: jansky@fsv.cuni.cz
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Optimality of Maastricht fiscal criteria in the light of the economic theory
Firkaľová, Alexandra ; Šaroch, Stanislav (advisor) ; Jelínek, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis focuses on the subject Optimality of Maastricht fiscal criteria in the light of the economic theory. The first chapter presents the functions of public finances and the discrepancies in their understanding. It is aiming at some types of public deficits and their consequences. It introduces the topics concerning possiblities of public debt solving, Maastricht criteria and Stability and Growth Pact observance. The second chapter brings the opinions about unappropriate current fiscal criteria and offers many alternative possibilities to calculate them. The third chapter presents the European Commission prediction of public finances sustainability in Europe compared to the predictions in stability and convergence programmes of European countries. The second part of the last chapter focuses on the empirical analysis of different scenarios of public finances and other indicators development. The scenarios include fiscal arithmetic used for the Maastricht fiscal convergence criteria determination.
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The objectives and results of the reform of public finances in the Czech republic 2007 - 2010 in the tax area
Zadáková, Klára ; Kubátová, Květa (advisor) ; Schvábová, Andrea (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the objectives of reform of public finances in the years 2007 - 2010, mainly in the tax area. The main objective of the reform was to reduce the public deficit, reducing government debt and the administrative costs associated with collecting the tax due on the taxpayer and the state. The most significant changes were applied in the context of tax on personal income tax so that devote the greatest attention. In the context of public finance reform changes in the tax system are also applied. This is a new law on income tax, new tax rules and creating a single collection point. All these modifications have lead to the simplification of legislation and tax administration and thereby reducing administrative costs. In the evaluation, I compared the determined objectives and actual results and concluded that the objectives were not fulfilled. On the other hand, it must be stressed that the objectives of the reform were and are largely influenced by the impact of economic crisis and an unstable political environment.
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Vývoj veřejných deficitů a státní dluh v ČR
Řeháková, Jana ; Filipová, Vladimíra (advisor) ; Drozen, František (referee)
V první kapitole této práce je vymezena teorie veřejných deficitů a státního dluhu, součástí jsou i subkapitoly o vývoji těchto makroekonomických ukazatelů v České republice. Druhá kapitola se zabývá daňovou problematikou, jsou zde charakterizovány nejdůležitější daně vybírané v České republice. Třetí kapitola je věnována státnímu rozpočtu roku 2009, kde je popisován zhoršující se vývoj veřejných financí na základě působení celosvětové ekonomické krize a dále reakce vlády na tuto negativní situaci. Čtvrtá kapitola je zaměřena na státní rozpočet České republiky v roce 2010 a jeho výdajový rámec, tzv. "Janotův balíček". Závěrečná kapitola se zabývá dvěma vládními dokumenty, Konvergenčním programem a "Exit strategy", ve kterých jsou zachyceny návrhy řešení problému zadluženosti českých veřejných financí v letech 2011 a 2012.
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