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Ekonomická sladěnost České republiky s eurozónou ve světle finanční krize
Hájek, Jan ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This paper deals with the issue of synchronization of the Czech economy and the economy of the eurozone. The OCA theory which is key theoretical basis for the analysis contained in the paper is briefly described in the first part. In the second part cyclical and structural synchronization is evaluated by the means of correlation coefficients of the development of GDP, industrial production, inflation and interest rates. The obtained results show sufficient level of synchronization, impacts of the financial crisis also rather contributed to the current level of synchronization. Arguments for and against synchronization are discussed in the third part as well as mutual dependency of the both economies. Two quarters time lag of the Czech GDP growth rate behind the eurozone is discovered in the pre-crisis period. At the end OCA- index for the Czech Republic is recalculated, the value of the OCA-index for the Czech Republic is the lowest among tested countries.
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The Evolution of Optimum Currency Area Index: Post-crisis Perspective
Kadlecová, Pavlína ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...
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Economic and legal aspects of euro adoption in the Czech Republic
NOVOTNÝ, Adam
The Czech Republic has committed itself to adopt the euro with joining the European union in 2004. Until today there has not been any political interest of setting the specific date of euro adoption due to low public approval. Currently, there is an increase of positive public opinion about euro so it is the right time to start an objective discussion. The thesis is divided into three parts. The First part describes the history and evolution of the European monetary union, Maastricht convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency area. The second part presents possible economic benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. The third and the main part examines the real effects of euro adoption on sample of selected countries with similar characteristics. The impact of euro on main economic indicators was analysed and there has been carried out a comparison between these countries. Also the role of euro in trade of selected countries has been highlighted. Last but not least, the possible impact of euro on country competitivness has been analysed in the context of optimum currency area theory. It is expected that joining the monetary union leads to a boost of bilateral trade which harmonizes the economic cycles of trade partners. The main purpose of this part is to prove the increase of competitiveness of exporters gained from monetary union measured by the raise of the bilateral trade interconnection. Finally these two criteria - gross domestic product alignment and bilateral trade interconnection have been used to describe the suitability of Czech Republic as a candidate country for the European monetary union.
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The Evolution of Optimum Currency Area Index: Post-crisis Perspective
Kadlecová, Pavlína ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...
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Currency separation of Czechoslovakia in 1993 - any lessons for the Euro area?
Husek, Daniel ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
This thesis analyses important aspects of the Czechoslovak currency separation, its incentives, technical and organizational solutions and the total expense of the operation. The main contribution of this work is (i) comparing the situation in the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic before the currency separation in 1993 with the situation in Euro area countries after 2008 and describing its similarities, (ii) analytical view of a possible application of the solutions used within the separation of the Czechoslovak currency in the context of the Euro area states, and (iii) discussion about possible gains from leaving the European Monetary Union.
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European currency after Greek crisis
Martinek, Petr ; Loužek, Marek (advisor) ; Vlček, Josef (referee)
This thesis describes the current state of the European Monetary Union. Special attention is paid to the development of the recent debt crisis which revealed many weaknesses of the EMU. This paper analyses these problems and suggests some solutions. It explains causes and consequences of the debt crises and concludes with prospects for the future development of the Monetary Union.
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Ekonomická sladěnost České republiky s eurozónou ve světle finanční krize
Hájek, Jan ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This paper deals with the issue of synchronization of the Czech economy and the economy of the eurozone. The OCA theory which is key theoretical basis for the analysis contained in the paper is briefly described in the first part. In the second part cyclical and structural synchronization is evaluated by the means of correlation coefficients of the development of GDP, industrial production, inflation and interest rates. The obtained results show sufficient level of synchronization, impacts of the financial crisis also rather contributed to the current level of synchronization. Arguments for and against synchronization are discussed in the third part as well as mutual dependency of the both economies. Two quarters time lag of the Czech GDP growth rate behind the eurozone is discovered in the pre-crisis period. At the end OCA- index for the Czech Republic is recalculated, the value of the OCA-index for the Czech Republic is the lowest among tested countries.
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Analysis of the Economic and Monetary Union crisis based on the Eurozone example
Ševčíková, Michaela ; Rovná, Lenka (advisor) ; Debnárová, Ľubica (referee)
Global economic and financial crisis uncovered serious structural deficiencies of the EU economies - especially of the Eurozone members. High levels of debt have resulted in inability to honour it and state bankruptcies or necessary debt restructurings are a real possibility. This paper analyzes the current Eurozone crisis on the basis of theoretical and methodical foundations of the Optimal Currency Area literature and theory of economic integration. It evaluates the rationality of the Maastricht nominal convergence criteria and analyzes the role of real convergence criteria in like with the introduction of common currency and common monetary policy. It discusses the non-compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact which was supposed to ensure fiscal discipline also after a country's Euro accession. It also deals with the current developments in the monetary and fiscal crisis of the most affected Eurozone members (Greece, Ireland, Portugal) which have already had to ask for financial aid from the EU and the IMF. Tools and measures adopted in this light by the EU and other national and supra-national authorities are also discussed and their partial evaluation is presented. The final section offers possible alternatives of future development of the Eurozone.
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Je Eurozóna ekonomickou chybou? Přístup teorie optimálních měnových zón
Drobík, Michal ; Petrášek, František (advisor) ; Mládek, Josef (referee)
The diploma thesis is aimed to apply the theoretical concept of optimum currency areas, i.e. probably the most comprehensive approach to analyze the suitability of establishing a currency area, to the real and currently difficulties solving environment of EMU states. The first, theoretical-methodological part shows the development of the OCA theory, as founded by Robert A. Mundell and expanded upon by further contributors and critics thereafter. This part focuses especially on defining the optimality criteria, which are then analyzed in the empirical-analytical section. In order to assess the level of optimality, which the euro area members have reached during the common currency existence period, concrete and empirical data are analyzed - data, showing the previous development of the selected indicators, describing the criteria fulfilling. In the final part of the thesis, the author considers the overall optimality rate of euro area and points out its consequences for the Czech Republic, as a candidate country. Furthermore, the entry-timing question is discussed as well, when finished by a two possible scenarios of our accession to EMU. In relation to this issue, the author also discusses the relevancy to assess the readiness for entering the euro area according to the parameters of Maastricht criteria.
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Analysis of Causes of the Housing Bubble in Spain with Special Regard to Euro Currency
Fišer, Radim ; Babin, Jan (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This paper examines fundamental causes of the housing bubble in Spain in 1999-1997. The thesis also critically evaluates the low interest rates of ECB, which are caused by inherent system fault of one interest rate for every state, even for states with high inflation rate and growth such as Spain or Ireland. I was able to provide evidence that ECB's interest rate was appropriate for France and Germany, but not for Spain. With econometric analysis of time series I was able to prove that low interest rate with regard to Taylor rule lead to a historically unprecedented housing bubble. These rates were even negative after inflation.
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