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Analysis of the development of the exchange rate on the basis of uncovered interest rate parity
Macháček, Marek ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Obešlo, František (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is based on the empirical analysis to identify the relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rates in selected countries and verify the validity of the uncovered interest rate parity. In the first part, the author deals with basic theoretical and exchange rate determinants from a fundamental analysis point of view, which attempts to explain the causality between these two variables. The actual analysis was performed at three levels on monthly time series from 2010 to 2016. Graphical analysis was selected as the first stage of the analysis, also including verification of the validity of the Fisher International Effect. Later, regression and vector autoregressive analysis followed. However, the conclusions of the individual empirical parts show that the exchange rate is determined by many factors, not only by the interest rate differential, as assumed the theory of uncovered interest rate parity. These results are also related to the low quality of the estimated models. Uncovered interest rate parity has been confirmed in very few cases, but none of the monitored currency pairs has been validated at all three levels of empirical analysis at the same time. The work offers valuable insight into the trend appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rates at the positive interest rate differential in the selected period.
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Manifestation of carry trade on financial markets
Sadykova, Albina ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis concerns with speculative carry trade strategy. Carry trade is based on breach of Uncovered Interest Parity. The theoretical part is focused on traditional fundamental analysis. This thesis deals with the identification of carry trade existence and capture their expressions in the financial markets, verification profitability and attractiveness of carry trade operations, analysis of conditions for carry trade on financial markets before and after global financial crisis 2008. Important part of the work was also description of the consequences of carry trade transactions and their effects on the exchange rate and financial situation
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Analysis of the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate within boarders of a small open economy
Brigant, Michal ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
Primary objective of this thesis was to analyse the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate within borders of a small open economy. Different theoretical approaches often present us with various, sometimes even opposing conclusions when it comes to the matter of direction and intensity of the causal influence between these two variables. From author's point of view it is important to perceive the interaction between exchange rate and interest rate as a dynamic process rather than a static relationship. The empirical analysis was conducted on monthly time series (2000-2012) of three selected small open economies -- Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Graphical analysis, linear regression, vector autoregression and cointegration analysis were selected as suitable tools for meeting the objective of this thesis. Models themselves presented us with interesting conclusions, for example a proof of the international Fisher effect, exchange rate causally affecting the interest rate (interest rate differential) in case of spot rates against euro. Another curious phenomena was the inflow of foreign debt capital, which, as it seems, was actually pulling the exchange rate down rather than pushing it up due to rising indebtedness of the economy.
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Exchange rate and interest rate in the floating exchange rate regime
Skoupil, Lubomír ; Kuncl, Martin (advisor)
This bachelor thesis deals with the relationship between interest and exchange rates in the floating exchange rate regime from a theoretical and practical point of view. The first part of the thesis addresses the covered interest rate parity theory. The second part examines the uncovered interest rate parity theory, which is analyzed on empirical data. The last part describes the overshooting exchange rate model of Rudiger Dornbusch.
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