|
|
The Impact of International Sanctions on The Economy of Iran
Kraváček, Tomáš ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Palanský, Miroslav (referee)
The pursue of Iran's regional ambitions since the very existence of the Islamic republic has commonly collided with the interests of other regional players such as Saudi Arabia and Israel supported by the U.S. Consequently, Iran has been often a target of various U.S. sanctions. Later, after the continuing Iranian reluctance to abide by the international rules concerning its nuclear programme, the EU joined the U.S. in sanctioning Iran. In 2012, the oil embargo was imposed by the former which dramatically reduced the value of Iranian exports. In this thesis, we apply the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of international sanctions on the economy of Iran. We estimate the possible development of Iranian GDP per capita during the 2010-2015 period had it not been for the international sanctions. Our results show a steady growth of the GDP per capita in the absence of the sanctions. In 2015, the last year of the sanctions, the difference between our estimated GDP per capita and the actual one is 1,911 U.S. dollars. Keywords synthetic control method, nuclear programme, GDP per capita, Iran, sanctions, trade, oil
|
|
|
Do family policies really affect fertility levels?
Jiráková, Zuzana ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (advisor) ; Votápková, Jana (referee)
One of the main objectives of family policies in countries with low fertility levels is to stimulate birth rates and incentivize the citizens to have more children. Nevertheless, the research on whether this objective is being met remains inconclusive. In this thesis, we analyze two reforms which took place in the Czech Republic in 1995 and 2008, which adjusted the period of reception of the parental allowance. We use data from selected European OECD countries along with the synthetic control approach to construct a synthetic counterpart to the Czech Republic which gives us an idea about how fertility levels would have developed if the interventions did not take place. In both cases, 1995 reform and 2008 reform, we do not find any conclusive evidence that the interventions affected fertility levels in the Czech Republic. Moreover, we observe a change in the trend of total fertility rate about 2 years before each reform which suggests that these reforms were more likely reactions to changing fertility rates rather than remedies. JEL Classification J13, J17, J11, J12, E61, E65, F68 Keywords fertility, family policy, synthetic control estimator, parental allowance, parental leave Author's e-mail 31609261@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail barbara.pertold-gebicka@fsv.cuni.cz
|
|
|
The Geopolitics of Repressions
Kosík, Martin ; Chytilová, Julie (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis studies how geopolitical concerns influence attitudes of a state toward its ethnic minorities. Using data digitized from archival sources on more than 2 million individual arrests by the Soviet secret police, I apply difference-in-differences and synthetic control method to estimate how changing German-Soviet relations influenced repressions of Germans in the Soviet Union. The results of both methods show that there was large and statistically significant increase in arrests of Germans following the German invasion into the Soviet Union in 1941. Furthermore, the impact of war appears to be highly persistent since there is almost no decline in the estimated effect on repressions for nearly 10 years after the end of the war. Keywords repression, geopolitics, Soviet Union, difference-in-differences, synthetic control method, archival data
|
guest ::
