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Methods of prediction of exchange rate and analysis of the exchange rate of selected country
Burdeláková, Ingrida ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with possibilities of prediction of future development of exchange rate. The exchange rate is shortly characterized at the beginning together with approaches of its determination like technical and fundamental analysis. Further three methods of long-time forecasting like purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and balance of payments theory are explained in more details. Practical part begins with description of the euro and real development of its exchange rate to U.S. dollar from the implementation of the euro in 1999 till the end of the year 2009. The validity of individual theories from the theoretical part is verified through formulas and other methods based on information about inflation rate, interest rate and balances of payments. Results of selected approaches are summarized in conclusion together with suitability of their practical application and possible reasons of differences between theory and reality.
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Exchange rate policy of China
Štursová, Lucie ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Ondřich, Libor (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the topic of chinese exchange rate policy. First part of this thesis describes the theory of exchange rates and their systems. Following parts are dedicated to China, the aim si to analyse the evolution of the regime of chinese currency renminbi from the inception of the People's Republic of China till the present, and read up effects resulted from the actual arrangement. The question of exchange rate reserves, economic growth and indipendence of monetary policy is also mentioned. At last, possible changes in chinese exchange rate system are suggested, namely the transition to more flexible system of chinese currency, and capital account convertibility of renminbi.
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Mutual relations of balance of payments, exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves
Zelba, Michal ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This work assesses influence of balance of payments on exchange rate movement, whether nominal or real, and feed back. First part defines balance of payments and content of its items. Further, main theories of exchange rate movements are presented. In the ensuing empirical section economies of similiar type are compared, firstly two large, rather open economies of USA and United Kingdom. The next comparation analyzes differences between two small, rather open economies, and that is Czech republic and Switzerland.
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The Role of USD in a Globalized Economy
Vávrová, Barbora ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The main aim of my thesis is to describe the development of the American dollar's position within the historical background, its role in a globalized economy and analyze the current position of the dollar as the world's leading currency. The thesis is divided into three parts. First part is dedicated to the theoretical background concerning exchange rates and currency regimes. The second chapter considers the history of the international monetary system with the relation to the dollar. The third chapter analyzes the current situation and characteristics determining the role of American dollar. This chapter also describes some problems of American economy, analyses exchange rate of dollar against Euro and gives possible forecast of dollar's position for the future.
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Exchange rate arrangements in transition economies
Kudličková, Anna ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The choice of the exchange rate regime is the topic substantially discussed in the economic literature and especially it is discussed in the case of the transition economies. The aim of the thesis is to make a survey of the impact of exchange rate regimes on these economies. Within the thesis there are analyzed the regimes and the conomies of the four transition countries, namely Poland, Hungary, Czech republic and Lithuania. The thesis assesses the benefits and costs of the individual regimes in each country since the beginning of the economic transformation up to nowadays.
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The role of exchange rate regimes in monetary crises
Vránová, Jana ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This thesis is devoted to the role of exchange rate regimes in monetary crises. The first chapter elucidates basic terms concerning exchange rate, e.g. quotation, convertibility, central parity. In the second chapter there is every particular regime and its role in crisis described in detail. The term "monetary crisis", its reasons and consequences are explained in the third chapter. This is put into practise in the fourth chapter, which deals with the Czech crown's monetary crisis in 1997. The last chapter analyses the impact of the implementation of the supranational currency on the trend of the macroeconomic indicators.
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The Czech Republic and the Euro Area
Fiedlerová, Lucie ; Ježek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kubelková, Karina (referee)
This graduation thesis is concerned with the Czech Republic's readiness for the entry to the euro area. Our Republic engaged to adopt shared euro currency already before the single admission to the European union, therefore it is not suitable to research, whether the Czech Republic should adopt euro or not, but when this step will be the most appropriate to render. The introductory part of the theses describes the history of the European monetary integration and the Stability and Growth Pact as an important instrument of the budget branch adherence. The theoretical part of the thesis focuses on the theory of optimal monetary areas, which is closely associated with monetary integration. Analytical section examines the rate of nominal and real approximation of Czech economy to the euro area's economies. I deal thoroughly with the fulfilment of convergence criteria and on the basis of GDP growth rate I analyse the real convergence. I solve the current influence of Greece's problems on the admission of euro in the Czech Republic and the Slovak macroeconomic experience with the entry to the euro area.
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Bilateral relations between interest rates and exchange rates (in selected countries)
Kočí, Tomáš ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Kunz, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis deals with the relation between interest differential and exchange rate. First part is about the exchange rate system explanation and about explanation of theoretical background of relation between interest rate and exchange rate (i. e. Asset Market Model, Interest Rate Parity, etc.). The goal of second part is to verify theoretical assumptions on empirical data. There is a sample of ten European countries which is used for applying of graphical analysis, regression analysis and VAR model analysis.
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Impact exchange rates on the companie´s sphere of Czech republic
Borovička, Vladimír ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Pojsl, Zdeněk (referee)
In context of czech membership in the Europen Union we always discuss the question if the acceptance of the euro as official currency is for our country and czech companies beneficial or not. The aim of this thesis is to describe microeconomic benefits of join the euro for company TECHO, a.s. that I have been working for over two years. TECHO, a.s. is an important provider of comprehensive services for the furnishing of commercial interiors in the Czech republic and its products are available on three continents -- Europe, Asia and Africa. Because of this fact is the question of acceptance or non-acceptance of the euro for this company very important and actual. The method of research is the analysis of exchange rates that I apply on economic results of the firm for years 2005-2009. The analysis should answer the question if the acceptance of the euro is for the firm TECHO, a.s. profitable or not.
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