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CRUDE OIL PREDICTION FOR COMPANIES IN ENERGY DEMANDING PRODUCTION
Vícha, Tomáš ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
The dissertation deals with prediction of crude oil price and is tailor-made for such companies which are heavily crude oil related. The main dissertation target is to make sure that such companies can get ready for price changes and safeguard themselves against negative consequences. Crude oil prices are the main factor which affects prices of such final products as petrol. It is a well known fact that quantitative predictions are not reliable and all those who are forced to real on such vague data set for their decision-making are reluctant to use them. That’s how we would like to have at least the correct trend information. The dissertation introduces some concepts originally developed within artificial intelligence theory for the crude oil predictions. Specifically common sense algorithms and qualitative interpretation of some aspects of theory of chaos are the main contribution towards expanding of available prediction tools described by the dissertation. A systematic analysis of a sequence of qualitative solutions is the key part of the dissertation.
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Vector Optimisation of a Company Based on Trend Evaluation
Přichystalová, Veronika ; Musil, Tomáš (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
This thesis analyzes the impact of political risk for investment decision-ing-on invest-ments into large investment projects. The failure of investors in the field of large in-vestment projects is the vast majority caused by the politic-social grounds, whose quan-tification is extremely difficult. Political risk affects economic conditions and the stabil-ity of the environment, therefore knowledge of its development is essential for the prop-er investment decisions. His predictions are quantitative level problematic. The method used qualitative modeling falls within the field of artificial intelligence and used to model the trend. The work describes the process of creating qualitative model, its inter-pretation and recommendations for use in investment decisions.
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Vector Optimalisation of a Company Based on Trend Evaluation
Tesařová, Lenka ; Válková, Hana (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
The thesis deals with the analysis of the macroeconomic, market and intern environment of corporations in order to analyze the appropriate time to establish a new company or to invest into an existing economical subject. For this purpose the qualitative modeling was used. Thanks to this method there is a possibility to predict the future development of the factors that have an influence on rentability of companies. The choice of variables is the same as with the ones that are analyzed in the process of evaluation rating.
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The use of qualitative modeling in solving problems associated with external credit rating
Krejčíř, Jaroslav ; Kulhánek, Lumír (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (referee) ; Myšková, Renáta (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
The doctoral dissertation studies applications of the methods of qualitative modelling to solve problems associated with external credit ratings. Qualitative modelling is a tool which can solve tasks under shortage of relevant information items. Correlation analysis is used if relevant data sets are available and complement the qualitative analysis. External credit rating assessments are closely related to possibilities of insolvency of business entities and the subsequent bankruptcies. Mutual interlinks of bankruptcy probabilities and qualitative models are presented in details. Two specific models are given. Due to the adopted legislative measures were also tested match of the ratings from a variety of external credit rating agencies using cluster and correlation analysis. The above mentioned results are used to develop a qualitative model of external credit ratings, which is the main outcome of this dissertation. The results of model scenarios of assessment of the influence of regulation external credit rating on the business entity, investors, as well as regulatory authorities are presented in details.
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Vector Optimalisation of a Company Based on Trend Evaluation
Tesařová, Lenka ; Válková, Hana (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
The thesis deals with the analysis of the macroeconomic, market and intern environment of corporations in order to analyze the appropriate time to establish a new company or to invest into an existing economical subject. For this purpose the qualitative modeling was used. Thanks to this method there is a possibility to predict the future development of the factors that have an influence on rentability of companies. The choice of variables is the same as with the ones that are analyzed in the process of evaluation rating.
|
|
|
The use of qualitative modeling in solving problems associated with external credit rating
Krejčíř, Jaroslav ; Kulhánek, Lumír (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (referee) ; Myšková, Renáta (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
The doctoral dissertation studies applications of the methods of qualitative modelling to solve problems associated with external credit ratings. Qualitative modelling is a tool which can solve tasks under shortage of relevant information items. Correlation analysis is used if relevant data sets are available and complement the qualitative analysis. External credit rating assessments are closely related to possibilities of insolvency of business entities and the subsequent bankruptcies. Mutual interlinks of bankruptcy probabilities and qualitative models are presented in details. Two specific models are given. Due to the adopted legislative measures were also tested match of the ratings from a variety of external credit rating agencies using cluster and correlation analysis. The above mentioned results are used to develop a qualitative model of external credit ratings, which is the main outcome of this dissertation. The results of model scenarios of assessment of the influence of regulation external credit rating on the business entity, investors, as well as regulatory authorities are presented in details.
|
|
|
CRUDE OIL PREDICTION FOR COMPANIES IN ENERGY DEMANDING PRODUCTION
Vícha, Tomáš ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
The dissertation deals with prediction of crude oil price and is tailor-made for such companies which are heavily crude oil related. The main dissertation target is to make sure that such companies can get ready for price changes and safeguard themselves against negative consequences. Crude oil prices are the main factor which affects prices of such final products as petrol. It is a well known fact that quantitative predictions are not reliable and all those who are forced to real on such vague data set for their decision-making are reluctant to use them. That’s how we would like to have at least the correct trend information. The dissertation introduces some concepts originally developed within artificial intelligence theory for the crude oil predictions. Specifically common sense algorithms and qualitative interpretation of some aspects of theory of chaos are the main contribution towards expanding of available prediction tools described by the dissertation. A systematic analysis of a sequence of qualitative solutions is the key part of the dissertation.
|
|
|
Vector Optimisation of a Company Based on Trend Evaluation
Přichystalová, Veronika ; Musil, Tomáš (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
This thesis analyzes the impact of political risk for investment decision-ing-on invest-ments into large investment projects. The failure of investors in the field of large in-vestment projects is the vast majority caused by the politic-social grounds, whose quan-tification is extremely difficult. Political risk affects economic conditions and the stabil-ity of the environment, therefore knowledge of its development is essential for the prop-er investment decisions. His predictions are quantitative level problematic. The method used qualitative modeling falls within the field of artificial intelligence and used to model the trend. The work describes the process of creating qualitative model, its inter-pretation and recommendations for use in investment decisions.
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