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Sources of Asymmetric Shocks: The Exchange Rate or Other Culprits?
Skořepa, Michal ; Komárek, Luboš
We analyze and quantify the determinants of asymmetric shocks showing up in the form of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock generator. Second, we use data for 21 advanced and late-transition economies to gauge the extent to which medium-term bilateral real exchange rate variability can be explained by various fundamental factors. Using Bayesian model averaging, we find that out of 22 factors under consideration, four types of dissimilarities within a given pair of economies are likely to be included in the true model: dissimilarities as regards (i) financial development, (ii) per capita income growth, (iii) central bank independence, and (iv) the structure of the economy. A regression based on these four factors indicates that these factors explain about one third of the behavior of the three-year RER variability for the whole sample and almost half of the behavior of the three-year RER variability for the RERs involving specifically the euro. The remaining part of the total variability represents an estimate of the influence of the exchange rate market itself (together with the influence of fundamental price level or nominal exchange rate determinants not captured by the regressors used).
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Risks of entrepreneurship in PRC
Znamenáčková, Lenka ; Gullová, Soňa (advisor) ; Klosová, Anna (referee)
PRC is no longer seen only as a "world factory". It gains on importace as an global trading partner and many foreign companies try to succeed in Chinese market as importers of their products. Also Czech businesses have already penetrated Chinese market, invested there or are seriously considering expansion to the market. Main objectives of the thesis are to review and characterize main risks, obstacles and barriers which Czech entrepreneurs have to deal with when entering the Chinese market and suggestions how to obviate them.
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