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Momentum trading strategy performance before, during, and after the COVID-19 crisis
Řeřicha, Dávid ; Fanta, Nicolas (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis investigates the well-known momentum trading strategy from January 2013 to May 2022 on the US stock market. The goal of this thesis is to examine whether the phenomenal momentum anomalies occurred during COVID-19 crisis. The main part is addressed to the creation of momentum portfolios from the whole US stock market using daily data from 500 firms in the S&P 500 index and additional 11 sectoral momentum portfolios. Results confirm the power of momentum portfolios as the past winners accumulated the highest returns over the whole observed period and clearly outperformed the market. Focusing closely on COVID- 19 period we observed past losers outperforming past winners, which confirms another momentum anomaly on the US stock market. Therefore, this thesis referred to the Carhart Four - Factor Model model that is based on the Fama-French Three - Factor model with additional momentum factor. Unfortunately, results indicate no statistically significant power to explain the momentum behaviour during COVID-19 crisis.
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The Anglo-American "Special Relationship" in the Period of Gordon Brown's Government: the Case Study of Finding Solutions to Financial Crisis
Bábiková, Jana ; Váška, Jan (advisor) ; Raška, Francis (referee)
The central theme of the bachelor thesis is the phenomenon of the "special relationship" between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America. The "special relationship" that is most often associated with cooperation in military and security, is applied on the field of economic diplomacy during the time of financial crisis and finding a solution to it. At first, the thesis argued whether it was possible to claim the "special relationship" in economic cooperation. Then it continued to argue, to what extend could the "special relationship" influence crisis-solution finding. Thesis used the examples of economic diplomacy before and during G20 leaders' summits as the most obvious manifestation of the role of the "special relationship". Another focus of the thesis is the period of Gordon Brown's government. Besides summarizing the events leading to finding crisis solution, thesis also describes the main events that happened and shaped the evolution of the "special relationship" during the period of Gordon Brown's government. Most of the thesis is, however, centered on the role of Brown and Anglo-American diplomacy in finding solution to financial crisis.
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Systemic Risks Assessment and Systemic Events Prediction: Early Warning System Design for the Czech Republic
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...
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Impact of zombie firms on the weak post-crisis growth of the Slovak Republic
Bosák, Martin ; Pleticha, Petr (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
According to the Convergence Analysis of Slovakia from 2017, the current subject of Slovak economic growth and convergence is the slow growth in productivity as relative productivity of Slovakia to the EU average was decreasing in the period from 2014 to 2017. Moreover, it shows that Slovakia is one of the countries with low efficiency of using labour and capital, which means that there is an occurrence of misallocation of resources. A significant role in this downturn according to recent literature might be the occurrence of zombie firms, which are old companies that do not have sufficient profitability to cover their interest expenses for a longer period. This thesis examines zombie firms and their significance in stifling productivity performance. Using a rich firm-level dataset for Slovakia, we research the determinants of zombie companies in Slovakia. Controlling for cyclical effects, this thesis reveals that zombie enterprises over the period from 2003 to 2013 were significantly less productive compared to their healthy competitors. In addition, we find out that occurrence of zombie companies curbs the growth of healthy companies and has a negative impact on the economic output overall. These results are raising several issues for public policy as it needs to mitigate this cause of...
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Impact of zombie firms on the weak post-crisis growth of the Slovak Republic
Bosák, Martin ; Pleticha, Petr (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
Productivity growth is diminishing among OECD countries, coupled with increased differences in productivity development among enterprises and misallocation of resources. A recent literature focuses on the role of zombie firms, defined as old firms that have persistent problems meeting their interest payments, to explain these developments. This thesis examines the extent to which zombie firms are stifling labour productivity performance. Using a rich firm-level dataset for Slovakia, we assess the role of zombies on firm dynamics. We confirm the results that prevalence of zombie firms curbs the growth of healthy firms and thus dragging aggregate productivity down. Controlling for cyclical effects, our analysis shows that zombie firms over the period 2003-2013 are significantly less productive within industries than their healthy counterparts. Furthermore, a higher share of industry capital or employment sunk in zombie firms is associated with lower labour productivity, investment and employment growth of the typical non-zombie firm, which results in less productivity-enhancing capital reallocation. These results highlight the role of public policy in addressing prevalence of zombie firms, fostering a more efficient resource allocation and enabling productivity growth.
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Plausible Effects of the Adoption of the Euro on the Czech economy: Comparison with the case of the Slovac Republic
Goralková, Nikola ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Hedbávný, Petr (referee)
This master thesis deals with the euro adoption in the Czech Republic, comparing the possible effects of the euro adoption on the Czech economy and consequences of currency changeover after the Slovak Republic joined the eurozone in 2009. After introducing the theoretical concepts inevitable for the euro adoption, the process of preparation for the currency changeover in the Slovak Republic and the currency changeover itself will be described. Subsequently, the work focuses on the conditions which the Czech government has already met in the process of preparation for the euro adoption and which still need to be fulfilled. In addition, the Czech Republic's economic alignment with euro area countries is analyzed, especially focusing on particular areas. A significant part of this work deals with the comparison of positive and negative effects of the euro adoption in the Slovak Republic with possible impacts of euro on the Czech Republic. In the end, the emphasis is put on the strength of the Czech economy to deal with the possible future financial crisis.
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Response by Czech Auditors and Audit Regulators to the Financial Crisis
Chudá, Tatiana ; Hollmannová, Monika (advisor) ; Gutiérrez Chvalkovská, Jana (referee)
Auditors play an important role in the reliability of financial statements. Many investors and other financial information users rely on their opinion. During the financial crisis, auditors were critised since they did not warn the markets about financially distressed companies. In our thesis, we examine whether auditors change their behaviour during a financial crisis. Using our collected data for joint stock companies in the Czech Republic, we focus on frequency of modified and going concern opinions, amount of audit and non-audit fees charged by auditors, and audit reporting lag. Our audit fees model showed that there were significantly lower audit fees after the crisis than during the crisis years. The results also suggest that both Big 4 and non-Big 4 auditors increased their frequency of issuing modified opinions (most of which were going concern opinions) during the crisis period. In our logit going concern models for the individual years we observed change of the auditors' behaviour during the crisis years 2008-2010. We have also found out that Big 4 auditors increased their audit reporting lag in 2008 but our overall results suggest that the audit reporting lag was shorter during the crisis.
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The Anglo-American "Special Relationship" in the Period of Gordon Brown's Government: the Case Study of Finding Solutions to Financial Crisis
Bábiková, Jana ; Váška, Jan (advisor) ; Raška, Francis (referee)
The central theme of the bachelor thesis is the phenomenon of the "special relationship" between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America. The "special relationship" that is most often associated with cooperation in military and security, is applied on the field of economic diplomacy during the time of financial crisis and finding a solution to it. At first, the thesis argued whether it was possible to claim the "special relationship" in economic cooperation. Then it continued to argue, to what extend could the "special relationship" influence crisis-solution finding. Thesis used the examples of economic diplomacy before and during G20 leaders' summits as the most obvious manifestation of the role of the "special relationship". Another focus of the thesis is the period of Gordon Brown's government. Besides summarizing the events leading to finding crisis solution, thesis also describes the main events that happened and shaped the evolution of the "special relationship" during the period of Gordon Brown's government. Most of the thesis is, however, centered on the role of Brown and Anglo-American diplomacy in finding solution to financial crisis.
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Systemic Risks Assessment and Systemic Events Prediction: Early Warning System Design for the Czech Republic
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...
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