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Evaluation of China's FOREX policy: equilibrium exchange rate perspective
Qiriga, ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Master Thesis: Evaluation of China's FOREX Policy: Equilibrium Exchange Rate Perspective. Author: - Qiriga Supervisor: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., PhD. Academic Year: 2018/2019 Abstract This thesis investigated China's foreign exchange policy from the equilibrium exchange rate perspective, using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate model with multiregional dimension. The core question is whether Renminbi is misaligned (over- or undervalued) from 2001 to 2017. The result indicated that the bilateral nominal exchange rate of Renminbi against the US dollar was undervalued from 2002 to 2013, reaching a peak of 34.2% in 2007. In the rest of the years, it was overvalued slightly against the US dollar. As to the real effective exchange rate (REER) of Renminbi, it was overvalued in the first three years of the 2000s, then went through the period of undervaluation of 9 years, with a smaller degree compared with the bilateral exchange rate. It is shown that from 2013 the REER of Renminbi had been overvalued for several years until it was undervalued again in 2017 by 2%. Keywords FEER, Renminbi, exchange rate misalignment, multinational model, real effective exchange rate
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Selective Attention in Exchange Rate Forecasting
Kapounek, S. ; Kučerová, Z. ; Kočenda, Evžen
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000 news articles relevant to the six most-traded foreign exchange currency pairs for the period of 1979–2016. We employ a dynamic model averaging approach to reduce model selection uncertainty and to identify time-varying probability to include regressors in our models. Our results show that smaller sizes models accounting for the presence of selective attention offer improved fitting and forecasting results. Specifically, we document a growing impact of foreign trade and monetary policy news on the euro/dollar exchange rate following the global financial crisis. Overall, our results point to the existence of selective attention in the case of most currency pairs.
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The impact of macroeconomic news announcements on the value and volatility of selected foreign exchange rates in EU
Bubniak, Peter ; Fanta, Nicolas (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
Bibliographic note BUBNIAK, Peter. The impact of macroeconomic news announcements on the value and volatility of selected foreign exchange rates in EU. Prague 2019. 47 pp. Bachelor thesis (Bc) Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies. Thesis supervisor: Mgr Nicolas Fanta. Abstract This work analyzes the influence of positive and negative macroeconomic news on the value of exchange rate and volatility. We have chosen EUR/USD, EUR/CZK and USD/CZK as our exchange rates. The influence of macroeconomic news published by Czech national bank and European central bank were analysed. For our purposes were used econometric models GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) with both Normal and Student's distribution of error terms. One of the major outcomes were the importance of macroeconomic news on value and volatility on the exhcange rates. For each exchange rate has effect different macroeconomic index. The crucial are: Consumer price index and Harmonised Index of Consumer Pirces, unemplyoment rate and PRIBOR and EURIBOR. Another conclusion was that our financial dataset displays the main nature of volatility. JEL Classification C22, E00, E52, E58, F3, F4, F31, G1, G13, G14 Key words financial market, exchange rate, ARCH model, GARCH model, volatility Authors e-mail bubniak.peter@gmail.com...
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Transaction currency of Czech companies in international and domestic trade
KOUBOVÁ, Simona
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the impact of the use of foreign currencies, the euro by Czech companies on the accounting and analysis of the use of the euro in transactions. The first sub-objective is to determine the number of customers of the selected group who trade in the euro and the division of enterprises by size according to specified criteria. The second sub-objective is to determine the effect of the euro in the case of exchange rate differences and to be reflected in the financial statements. The work will evaluate the status and development of customers who use the euro as the transaction currency. The impact of the euro on society and the division of enterprises according to different criteria will be described. Part will be devoted to exchange rate differences. The last part of the thesis will deal with the impact of the euro on the financial statements
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Evaluation of China's FOREX policy: equilibrium exchange rate perspective
Qiriga, ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Master Thesis: Evaluation of China's FOREX Policy: Equilibrium Exchange Rate Perspective. Author: - Qiriga Supervisor: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., PhD. Academic Year: 2018/2019 Abstract This thesis investigated China's foreign exchange policy from the equilibrium exchange rate perspective, using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate model with multiregional dimension. The core question is whether Renminbi is misaligned (over- or undervalued) from 2001 to 2017. The result indicated that the bilateral nominal exchange rate of Renminbi against the US dollar was undervalued from 2002 to 2013, reaching a peak of 34.2% in 2007. In the rest of the years, it was overvalued slightly against the US dollar. As to the real effective exchange rate (REER) of Renminbi, it was overvalued in the first three years of the 2000s, then went through the period of undervaluation of 9 years, with a smaller degree compared with the bilateral exchange rate. It is shown that from 2013 the REER of Renminbi had been overvalued for several years until it was undervalued again in 2017 by 2%. Keywords FEER, Renminbi, exchange rate misalignment, multinational model, real effective exchange rate
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Reporting of financial derivate in accounting and its use in a financial deciding
TOULA, Martin
This diploma thesis deals with the issue of financial derivatives, their reporting, classification, accounting point of view and use on the example of a particular entity. The theoretical part summarizes the general theoretical knowledge about the given issue. The main goal of this thesis is to evaluate possibilities of using financial derivatives from the accounting and financial perspective of company named Schäfer Sudex s.r.o. This enterprise produces food containers made of stainless steel. The analysis of receivables and payables shows that the enterprise should ensure against the possible decline in value of foreign receivables as result of exchange rate variability. This thesis presents suggestions for securing receivables. Based on results, recommended solutions were created. Company should secure value of their receivables by using forward. Based at conservative exchange rate development, profit would be 4 mil CZK. But at aggressive change, earnings would exceed 18,7 mil CZK.
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Determination of the Exchange Rate
KRČMOVÁ, Daniela
This bachelor thesis deals with determination of the exchange rate. The main aim of the thesis is verification of chosen methods of the determination of a particular exchange rate in real market conditions. In the first part, the bachelor thesis deals with basic terms related to the currency market and are essential for understanding of a given matter. In this part there are described: the currency market, exchange rate quotation and different exchange rate systems. To understand given matter it is necessary to find out, how the given exchange rate works, what we can expect from it in the following years and thus estimate the future development of currency exchange rate. At the end of the theoretical part there are three basic theories of determination of the exchange rate introduced. Those are the purchasing power parity, the interest rate theory, and the last theory deals with the balance of payments. In the practical part I introduce three methods of determination on the exchange pair CZK/GBP, which is observed in the time frame from 2006 to 2017. To prove the validity and consequently compare the theoretical exchange rates with real exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, absolute and relative version of the purchasing power parity and lastly the theory of balance of payments of both countries were used. The future development according to the theory of balance of exchange rate is compared on the basis of current account and overall balance of payments of given countries. Based on the results, a best method of determining the future exchange rate development is suggested.
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Statistika & My (č. 9/2017): měsíčník Českého statistického úřadu
Český statistický úřad
Měsíčník informující o aktuálním dění v Českém statistickém úřadě. Přináší analýzy, komentáře, výsledky statistických šetření realizovaných a organizovaných ČSÚ, statistické údaje o ČR, jejich obyvatelích včetně mezinárodního srovnání. Uveřejňuje informace o ediční činnosti úřadu, odborných úspěších pracovníků, již uskutečněných a plánovaných tiskových konferencích, seminářích, akcích a dalších aktivitách.
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