|
| |
|
|
Forecasting Mortgages: Internet Search Data as a Proxy for Mortgage Credit Demand
Saxa, Branislav
This paper examines the usefulness of Google Trends data for forecasting mortgage lending in the Czech Republic. While the official monthly statistics on mortgage lending come with a publication lag of one month, the data on how often people search for mortgage-related terms on the internet are available without any lag on a weekly basis. Growth in searches for mortgages and growth in mortgages actually provided are strongly correlated. The lag between these two growth rates is two months. Evaluation of out-of-sample forecasts shows that internet search data improve mortgage lending predictions significantly. In addition to forecasting performance evaluation, an experimental indicator of restrictively tight mortgage credit standards and conditions is proposed. Nowadays many countries run bank lending surveys to monitor the tightness of bank lending standards and conditions. The proposed indicator represents a complementary tool to such a survey.
Fulltext:  PDF
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
Econometric Analysis of Monetary and Fiscally Policy of the Czech Republic with Impacts to Business Area
Řičař, Michal ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Kislingerová, Eva (referee)
Monetary and fiscally policy together form the main pillar of state policy, which allows responsible institutions to stimulate or damp the development of national economy. Crucial role of these operations should be research of impacts on the sectors of industry, the business entities, respectively. We can expect that stimulation, e.g. in the form of increased government spending or lower interest rate of the central bank, will have different responses across a range of branches. If mathematical model of alternative historical development of the economy is composed with simulations for selected industries, we can analyze how each branch is affected. If significant differences in response of macroeconomic stimulations are found, it is necessary to proceed to an analytical examination of the causal factors that could stand in the background probably. It appears appropriate to apply financial analysis and on its basis it is possible to evaluate the structure of assets, financing, attainment of profits and other factors, whose characteristics is a strong explanatory power of the composition and function of the analyzed branch in the economy as a whole.
|
|
|
Regional external economic relations
VAVERA, Jiří
Thesis about regional external economic relations try to resolve a question how subjects in a selected region (Prachatice district) conduct to economic relations with subjects of other territory and how these economic interactions can be describe. The target of the thesis is to characterize these relations on inferior level than the national economy. Literature retrieval cites authors from the field of regional science. Recherché summarises the base methods of research of the matter. The main part of the study describes collecting data about economic activities on two levels external regional relations LAU1 - NUTS1 and LAU1 - LAU1. Data about turnover of goods between 114 entities and subjects from the EU for years from 2004 to 2009 on LAU 1 - NUTS 1 level was obtained from the database Intrastat. Data about interregional exchange on LAU 1 - LAU 1 level were drawn from accounts of three companies from Prachatice district. All data are presented in several ways in tables, charts and maps and commented too. In the thesis is formulated equation which objectifies interregional distances so that responded to its negative effect to size of economic relations between regions. For prediction of the relations can be used reciprocal of the distance (index). The hypothesis on the validity of the formula (index), is statistically tested and confirmed on the end of thesis.
|
|
| |
|
|
Dynamické modely inflace
Sodoma, Jan ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Lejnarová, Šárka (referee)
In the first part, inflation is desribed theoretically. This part is about cost-push inflation, demand-pull inflation, galloping inflation, hyperinflation, monetarist and keneynesian view on inflation, issues in measuring inflation, effects of inflation and controlling inflation. Second part is empiric research. Inflation is endogenous variable. Price of petrol natural95 and monetary aggregate M2 are delayed exogenous variables. Object of analyse are relations between these variables: Correlation coefficient, F-test, t-tests, multicollinearity, autocorrelation.
|
|
| |
guest ::
