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Prof. JUDr. Cyril Horáček, politician and economist
Smutný, Zdeněk ; Kubů, Eduard (advisor) ; Jančík, Drahomír (referee)
7 The present work deals is a biography of Professor JUDr. Cyril Horacek, who was a prominent national economist, educator and politician during the turn of the century and especially in the first third of the 20th century. It examines his life stories and personal development with an emphasis on his career economist, educator and policy with regard to his private activities and interests. In several chapters, especially those concerning economics, he puts his expert view and work into the context of that time economic thinking and compares them with the work and ideas of others Czech national economists of that time.
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Fiscal Discretion in the Czech Republic in 2001–2011: Has It Been Stabilizing?
Ambriško,Róbert ; Augusta, Vítězslav ; Hájková, Dana ; Král, Petr ; Netušilová, Pavla ; Říkovský, Milan ; Soukup, Pavel
We survey discretionary measures of Czech fiscal policy in the period 2001–2011 and analyze their episodes and macroeconomic impacts. We use bottom-up and top-down methods to identify fiscal discretion and we compare the results with Kalman filtering. Fiscal discretion is found to be used frequently and to be large in several years. At the same time, the results signal that macroeconomic stabilisation has not been major aim of fiscal discretion measures. For example, in the years of economic recession 2010–2011, the government put emphasis on pro-cyclical consolidation.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2012, No.2). No. 2, Vol. 10, November 2012, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
Česká národní banka
The importance of analysing the interactions between financial stability and monetary policy and its effects on macroeconomic fluctuations has risen substantially during the current financial crisis. This edition of the Research Bulletin is focused on five articles which analyse these interactions from various angles. The first article examines the effect of tighter macroprudential and monetary policies on output. According to this research, in comparison to monetary policy, macroprudential policy may be less costly, as it has less adverse effects on bank earnings. The second article examines to what extent financial frictions matter for macroeconomic fluctuations. The results suggest that the effect of financial frictions on macroeconomic fluctuations is sizeable only when financial stress is sufficiently high. The third article focuses on the relation between central bank finances and inflation. The article concludes that central bank losses are unlikely to represent a threat to price stability. The fourth article examines whether low monetary policy rates may increase commercial banks’ risk-taking. It finds that too low an interest rate may lead to a build-up of long-term risks to financial stability, but a lower interest rate during the life of a loan reduces its riskiness. The fifth article examines the interactions between bank capital and bank liquidity creation. The results indicate that greater capital requirements are beneficial for financial stability but may have an adverse effect on bank liquidity creation.
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Economic research bulletin (2012, No.1). Macroeconomic forecasting: methods, accuracy and coordination
Česká národní banka
The first article performs an empirical investigation of the accuracy of Czech quarterly GDP forecasts of various models which extract information from the available monthly indicators. The forecast performance of the eight models is compared mutually and with the historical near-term forecasts of the CNB’s staff. The second article assesses the practical usability of Bayesian fan charts for the purposes of CNB forecast evaluation and financial stability stress testing. The third article evaluates the accuracy of Consensus Economics forecasts by comparison with the alternative forecasts including those of international organisations. Furthermore, the impact of the recent crisis on forecast performance is investigated. The last article analyses the extent to which private analysts coordinate their forecasts with those produced by the Czech National Bank, and whether such coordination changes over time.
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Economic research bulletin (2011, No.2). Macro-financial linkages: theory and applications
Česká národní banka
The first article presents a model that incorporates credit frictions and serves to describe the dynamics of credit spreads in moderate as well as crisis times. The model is then used to evaluate the effects of quantitative easing and credit easing. The second article proposes a model that shows how the conditions of a parent bank might affect the interest rate setting of its subsidiary or branch in a foreign country, and is followed by an empirical assessment of the ten largest banks in the Czech Republic under foreign control. The remaining papers are of an empirical nature. The third article investigates the household credit market in the Czech Republic, proposing a new indicator of default risk and examining its determinants. The fourth article evaluates the extent to which financial variables help predict key Czech macroeconomic indicators. The last article presents evidence on the degree and evolution of financial integration of the Czech Republic and four other EU countries outside the euro area.
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Economic research bulletin (2011, No.1). Monetary policy analysis in a central bank
Česká národní banka
The first article gives a fairly general description of how monetary policy was conducted in a group of developed countries during the last three decades and shows how interest rate setting changed in response to various changes in the institutional framework, such as the adoption of inflation targeting. The second article tackles the classical issue of the money and inflation nexus. Although the benefits of money in policy analysis have been questioned by many commentators, the forecasting exercises carried out in this article lend some support to the role of money for policy analysis. The third article investigates the main channels of monetary transmission mechanisms and finds a well-functioning monetary transmission in the Czech Republic. Last but not least, the fourth article deals with the question of how the Czech National Bank is viewed by the media. The authors show that even surprising policy moves do not reduce the favourableness of media assessment, and emphasise the role of timely and clear central bank communication in this respect.
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Economic research bulletin (2010, No.2)
Česká národní banka
This edition of the Research Bulletin is devoted to the issue of wage adjustment in Europe, based on three articles produced within the European Central Bank Wage Dynamics Network working group. The articles summarise results from a harmonised firm-level survey on wage and price setting conducted in 15 countries of the European Union.
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Economic research bulletin (2010, No.1)
Česká národní banka
The first aticle formed the basis for the current CNB forecasting framework. The second one significantly shaped the discussions about the implications of the CNB’s losses. The third one established which methodologies and which data can be used to identify bubbles in the Czech housing market. The fourth introduced Beveridge curve estimates into the CNB’s policy documents. There are, of course, other papers that have influenced the CNB’s policy thinking. Some of them were featured in previous Bulletins and some are still work-in-progress. It is our hope that the CNB’s economic research will continue contributing to policy debates in the next ten years.
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Economic research bulletin (2009, No.2)
Česká národní banka
The first article in this edition, employing stress-testing procedures, assesses the determinants of the ability of Czech banks as compared to German ones to withstand credit and macroeconomic risks. The second article scrutinises the role of quality of banks’ management in bank failures, also testing whether there were differences between Czech-owned and foreign-owned banks. In the third article a modelling framework is proposed showing how the central bank’s knowledge of the health of the financial system could be used for the optimal conduct of monetary policy. The last article empirically examines developments in the integration of stock markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia vis-à-vis the euro area.
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