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Credit Growth in CEE Countries: Empirical Analysis of Early Warning Indicators
Stříbný, Jan ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in financial sector. Basel III regulatory package has introduced countercyclical capital buffer to improve stability of the banking sector and proposed using credit-to-GDP gap as an indicator for calibrating the buffer. In BCBS methodology, Credit-to-GDP gap is counted as a difference between current value and a long term trend obtained from data series using Hodrick-Prescott filter. In this work we used out of sample estimation method to create models for a determination of equilibrium credit to households' assets ratio and applied the results to compute the deviation from the long term equilibrium. We found that these alternative indicators can give signals different to credit to GDP gap, computed by using HP filter or OOS method, and sometimes they could even identify accumulation of risk in cases, where credit to GDP fails. The indicators were especially superior to using HP filter on CEE countries. The weakness is, however, the determination of a clear threshold for the indicator, when the credit growth should be classified as excessive.
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Impact of the financial crises in the period 1992-2014 on the Russian banking sector
Zhuravlov, Valerii ; Dvořák, Michal (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis gives detailed analysis of six bank crises in Russia in 1992-2014. The main objective was to examine their influence on the banking system and consequently on the economy of Russia. The first part covers the theoretical background of banking crises. Attention is paid to both macroeconomic and institutional factors. The second part describes and evaluates individual crisis episodes, analyzes their causes and evaluates their impact on the Russian banking sector. Emphasis is placed on the comparison between the crises in 1998 and 2008 and different policies of Russia and the USA to restore the stability of the banking sector in the context of Global Financial Crisis after 2008. The aim of the thesis is (i) to determine the impact of individual crises on the Russian banking system, economy and what has contributed to it. Consequently (ii) the second objective was to make recommendations on how to overcome these crises or at least reduce their severity.
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Financial and banking crisis
Lysoňková, Jana ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the issue of financial and banking crisis which is shown in relation to a specific case. It is divided into three chapters. The first part discusses general concepts such as currency, banking, debt and systemic crises. The second chapter offers a specific view of the current banking crisis in Italy, its brief historical and geographical development. It deals mainly with the non-performing loans of commercial banks and the slowing economic development. For this purpose, the thesis attempts to describe the Italian banking system, to explain the structure of banks and their main economic indicators. In the last part, a particular Italian bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, is presented. The foundation, growth and its influence on the earth are discussed. The attempt is to demonstrate the reasons for its bankruptcy.
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Indicators of currency and banking crisis
Kašpar, Jan ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on indicators of currency and banking crises and examines their reliability. The analysis is performed on real economic events - the monetary crisis analysiswill be related to the crisis in Russia in 1998 and in the banking crisis we will examine events in Ireland in 2008-2010. In case of both crises we will try to make a strict definition because the economic literature nor any law regulation do not offer any, whereas for time series analysis is the determination of the outbreak and the end of the crisis crucial. We also look at the change in the understanding of the financial crisis, from the concept of monetary, banking and debt crises typical for the end of the last century and gradually transitioning to a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis as a systemic crisis that represents the current direction of economic thought. The main objective is to analyze the reliability of currency crisis and banking crises indicators on the example of selected economic events. We will try to follow the development of indicators within a few years and look for the development trend, predicting the impending problems. There are also described some methodological problems concerning the research of indicators of financial crises. In the end we will have a comparison of both countries and emphasize what they have in common and what is different.
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Credit Growth in CEE Countries: Empirical Analysis of Early Warning Indicators
Stříbný, Jan ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in financial sector. Basel III regulatory package has introduced countercyclical capital buffer to improve stability of the banking sector and proposed using credit-to-GDP gap as an indicator for calibrating the buffer. In BCBS methodology, Credit-to-GDP gap is counted as a difference between current value and a long term trend obtained from data series using Hodrick-Prescott filter. In this work we used out of sample estimation method to create models for a determination of equilibrium credit to households' assets ratio and applied the results to compute the deviation from the long term equilibrium. We found that these alternative indicators can give signals different to credit to GDP gap, computed by using HP filter or OOS method, and sometimes they could even identify accumulation of risk in cases, where credit to GDP fails. The indicators were especially superior to using HP filter on CEE countries. The weakness is, however, the determination of a clear threshold for the indicator, when the credit growth should be classified as excessive.
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The development of banking system in Ukraine during the crisis of 2014-2015
Andrianova, Anna ; Dvořák, Petr (advisor) ; Galuška, Jiří (referee)
In my thesis I analyse the development of the banking system of Ukraine and the assessment of the concentration level of the banking system in conditions of crisis 2014-2015. The theoretical part is devoted to classification and causes of the banking crisis; also, it describes the historical aspects of crisis formation in Ukraine. The practical part is focused on the evaluation of the financial security level and macroeconomic situation in Ukraine. This part emphasises problems and the specifics of functioning of domestic banks. In addition, it considers the concentration level of the banking market. The analysis performed shows that the banking crisis is the result of accumulated macroeconomic imbalances of the past and present mistakes in the implementation of anti-crisis policy. Currently the efficient functioning of most domestic banks remains at insufficient level.
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Co způsobilo vzestupy a pády úrokových měr státních dluhopisů během evropské dluhové krize?
Václavíček, Tomáš ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Kovář, Kamil (referee)
This study examines the determinants of government bond spreads vis-a-vis Germany for eleven EMU member countries in the period 2000Q1 to 2013Q3 with a special focus on the European Debt Crisis. The aim of the thesis is to test whether selected financial, fiscal and macroeconomic variables have an impact on government bond spreads. A novel contribution is testing whether there has been a significant change of government bond spread determinants following the ECB interventions in summer 2012. Variables reflecting the sustainability of public finance, liquidity of government bonds, risk aversion and competitiveness of a particular country were found to be significant determinants of government bond spreads, unlike banking sector indicators. Government bond spreads thus increase in response to rising debts and deficits and the loss of international competitiveness. No significant change in the composition of government bond yield determinants as a whole was found for the period after the ECB interventions, despite changes in several variables. Results of the thesis suggest that it is important to follow a sound fiscal policy and to prevent a deterioration of a country's international competitiveness in order to keep government bond spread of a particular country low.
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Comparison of the impacts of the global financial crisis on the economies of Ireland and Iceland in the years 2008-2014
Šmerdová, Iva ; Ševčíková, Michaela (advisor) ; Štekláč, Jiří (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the impact of the global financial crisis on the economies of Ireland and Iceland. The theoretical part is focused on the theory of the business cycle at first and the associated characteristics of the financial crisis. Then a view of various economic schools on creating the budget deficit and public debt is described. In the practical part the pre-crisis period is analyzed, in which both countries have experienced an economic boom. At the same time, however, this period was accompanied by negative effects which amplified the impacts of the crisis. Despite a starting torque, the collapse of US bank Lehman Brothers, the thesis describes the collapse of the banking sector of both countries and their chosen government measures. Furthermore, the text deals with comparison of the impact of the crisis on the economies of Ireland and Iceland using selected economic indicators. The evaluation results are primarily focused on the current state of the economy and its expected future development. Although both countries managed to re-start economic growth, they still have to deal with some problems that the crisis left. In the case of Ireland it is largely of high government debt and unemployment, Iceland is struggling with set capital controls, currency volatility and associated price stability. Both states also trouble high private debt, restore of the banking sector and its confidence. However their prospects are positive and the situation should steadily improve. The hypothesis that Iceland's economy is doing better now and has more growth potential than the economy of Ireland, was refused based on the analysis and comparison of selected economic indicators.
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Financial system in Germany during the debt crisis
Petrík, Vojtěch ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Čajka, Radek (referee)
This master thesis deals with the impact of the debt crisis on the financial system in Germany. The aim is to prepare an analysis of the impact of the debt crisis on the stability of German financial system, assess individual consequences in the comparison with other world economies and give a prediction of possible future developments in the banking and capital market in Germany. The first chapter defines the financial system in general and describes the theory of the individual components within the financial system. The second chapter focuses on a specific definition of the financial system in Germany and analyzes in detail the various financial markets from a historical perspective. In the third chapter there is an analysis of the development of debt and banking crisis in Germany. The last chapter deals with clearing payment system TARGET2, describes the impacts of the debt crisis, evaluate current state of the German financial system and predicts the future development as well.
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Icelandic way out of crisis
Hendrych, Filip ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Titze, Miroslav (referee)
This diploma thesis is focused on measures, which have been adopted in Iceland due to the crisis. The first part of the thesis follows up causes and a course of the Icelandic banking crisis in order to understand the situation which the Icelandic authorities had to respond. Subsequently there are outlined measures which are adopted and in the last part these measures are evaluated. Emphasis is placed on analysing the measures of capital controls, banking sector restructuring and fiscal consolidation. All measures have achieved their objectives and have had significant impact on current recovery. Therefore at the end of the thesis is discussed the possibility of these measures applicability in other countries.
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