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Equity Premium Puzzle: Literature Review and the Czech Data
Hrachovec, Miloš ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis focuses on the equity premium puzzle, risk-free rate puzzle and possible solutions of these two quantitative conundrums. Original formulation of both puzzles is introduced and comprehensive literature survey is presented to show the developments regarding this topic. These include risk-based explanations, non-risk based explanations and behavioral finance perspective. Main contribution of this study dwells in estimation of these two puzzles for the Czech Republic. Using consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences, presence of the two puzzles is estimated employing annual Czech data from 1995 to 2011. The equity premium puzzle is not present in the Czech Republic, as the coefficient of risk aversion 5.57 . On the other hand, the risk-free rate puzzle is as severe as in developed economies. Furthermore, the individual time preference parameter is estimated to be larger than one - a counterintuitive result suggesting consumers prefer unit of consumption tomorrow to unit of consumption today. Robustness of the results is confirmed when different proxy for a risk-free rate is used. Results do not change significantly and the risk-free rate puzzle persists. Direction for future research of the financial market puzzles in the Czech Republic is suggested.
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Equity Premium Puzzle: Literature Review and the Czech Data
Hrachovec, Miloš ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis focuses on the equity premium puzzle, risk-free rate puzzle and possible solutions of these two quantitative conundrums. Original formulation of both puzzles is introduced and comprehensive literature survey is presented to show the developments regarding this topic. These include risk-based explanations, non-risk based explanations and behavioral finance perspective. Main contribution of this study dwells in estimation of these two puzzles for the Czech Republic. Using consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences, presence of the two puzzles is estimated employing annual Czech data from 1995 to 2011. The equity premium puzzle is not present in the Czech Republic, as the coefficient of risk aversion 5.57 . On the other hand, the risk-free rate puzzle is as severe as in developed economies. Furthermore, the individual time preference parameter is estimated to be larger than one - a counterintuitive result suggesting consumers prefer unit of consumption tomorrow to unit of consumption today. Robustness of the results is confirmed when different proxy for a risk-free rate is used. Results do not change significantly and the risk-free rate puzzle persists. Direction for future research of the financial market puzzles in the Czech Republic is suggested.
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Modeling of risk aversion
Navrátil, František ; Lachout, Petr (advisor) ; Kopa, Miloš (referee)
of the master thesis Title: Modeling of risk aversion Author: František Navrátil Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: Doc. RNDr. Petr Lachout, CSc. Abstract: The thesis discusses various theories that are able to model investor's subjective attitude to risk. The goal of the thesis is to clearly recapitulate possible mathematical approaches and to apply them in a real situation. One of the ways to tackle the problem is to use expected utility theory and a specific shape of a utility function. Another way is to choose a suitable risk measure. Especially useful for the modelling of risk aversion is the class of spectral risk measures that enables investor to choose a risk spectrum that meets his perception of risk. The thesis contains basic definitions concerning stochastic programming - a theory essential to solve the related optimization problems. Keywords: Risk aversion, utility function, probability constraint.
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Comparison of the three utility functions and their application to various aspects of consumer behavior
Mišuráková, Mária ; Koubek, Ivo (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
Many economists have tried to measure the utility of wealth and to predict human behavior based on this. In my thesis, I describe three such models - the expected utility theory, the prospect theory and the maximization of the probability of economic survival theory. Using an experiment, I try to figure out which model best represents the reality. For this purpose I developed an economic game to observe decisions of people in situations involving risk which I performed with a group of high-school students. The best representation of their behavior appears to be a convex utility function according to the expected utility theory. The implied risk-seeking is, in my opinion, caused by the fact that the experiment was conducted under laboratory conditions.
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Risk appetite estimation on financial markets
Fidler, Vojtěch ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Babin, Adrian (referee)
The thesis studies role of risk appetite on financial markets. In theoretical part, author describes a notion of this concept, refers to known methods and describes the role of behavioral economics in treatment of this concept. In practical part, models are constructed to explain influence of selected indices on CDS which proxy for sovereign risk of individual developed and emerging markets. Across the globe, there is found strong common component which can be explained by selected indices. It is also observed that GRAI indicator can play role in case of emerging markets. In case of developed markets, however, this property is missing. Granger causality does not prove relationship of GRAI explanation power in direction to sovereign risk.
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Sázení na loterie a sportovní události z pohledu behaviorální ekonomie
Mikulka, Jakub ; Koblovský, Petr (advisor) ; van Koten, Silvester (referee)
This thesis deals with the relationship between mood and behavior of bettors using a dataset provided by a betting company, Chance a.s., which operates in the Czech Republic. We consider three types of proxies for the mood: weather in regions, sport successes and the results of elections, and we build a fixed effect model to estimate the effect of mood on betting behavior. We provide strong evidence that the weather proxy has a significant effect on daily turnovers of the betting company and there also seems to be an effect of sport optimism. On the contrary, we failed to find any impact of elections. The results show that better mood tend to discourage clients from sports and lottery betting which is consistent with the increase in risk aversion or the depletion of a common self-control resource due to active mood regulation attempts. Additionally, we provide an evidence that the intra-month cycle in turnovers corresponds to liquidity constraint of bettors which disproves the permanent income hypothesis.
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How much are we afraid of losing? Analysis of risk aversion.
Vokounová, Tereza ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
The whole thesis is focused on exploring how individuals make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. The first section describes several economic theories, regarding explanation of human actions. The study points to the fact that the method of maximization expected utility cannot explain some examples of human decisions (eg. Allais paradoxes or the four-fold pattern) and to explain these effects, it is preferable to use prospect theory or cumulative prospect theory. In the second section, also based on results from the survey, I investigate the actual risk aversion in different situations (willingness to take risk in general, car driving, financial matters, sport and leisure, career and health) based on various factors. Statistically significant factor in all situations is gender when women show greater risk aversion in comparison to men. Age is a significant factor only in the willingness to take risk in general and in car driving. While in the willingness to take risks in general is a positive relationship between age and risk aversion, in car driving the relation is exactly the opposite. Level of education influences risk aversion in three situations - at risk in general (risk aversion increases with higher education), sport (risk aversion increases with higher education) and health issues (risk aversion decreases with higher education). In the health issues are people studying or working in the construction industry more risk-averse compared to people studying or working in the field of economics/finance. In car driving are individuals studying or working in the field of law more risk-averse than students or workers in the field of economics/finance. Another important factor is whether a person is working in public or private sector. In car driving, financial matters, career and health are people working in public sector more risk-averse compared to students and to people working in the private sector. Willingness to take risk in general is influenced by average monthly income - with a rising average monthly income is also growing willingness to take risks (decreasing risk aversion). Willingness to take risk in general, financial matters and career is higher for people who invest. Sportsmen/women are generally more willing to take risk in car driving, sport and career. Entrepreneurs are more willing to risk in career.
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Measurement of the aversion towards risk through the use of the game „Ber nebo neber“
Krkošková, Magdalena ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee)
I explore the decision-making process of the contestats of the TV game show "Deal or no deal" in Czech version "Ber nebo neber". This decision-making process does not require any further skills or knowledge and it is based on the large stakes and deal or no deal decisions by accepting or rejecting possibility of continuing in the game. Based on the panel data set gathered from real played games, it is possible to determine the risk averse or risk seeking attitude of the contestants. The data set contains 28 episodes, 23 obtained directly from TV Prima and 5 of them from private sources, both between years 2007 and 2008. I assume the contestants under myopic and hyperopic framing and I find the average Arrow-Pratt coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA). I consider different wealth levels and generally the RRA is lower for hyperopic framing. The differences in RRA may be most explained by the prior losses variable, which pictures the previous duration of the contestant's game.
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