|
|
Czechia's Choice: Would Euro Make a Difference?
Trubelík, Ivan ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
Euro adoption constitutes a major step in the economic integration within the European Union. The aim of this work is to quantify the effects it would have on the Czech Republic should it join the Euro Area at various dates in the recent past. Employing a Global VAR model to make unconditional and conditional counterfactuals of the 29 modeled economies, the probabilities of a higher real output and of lower prices are estimated. The results suggest that, from the viewpoint of the Czech Republic, entering the Eurozone during the financial crisis of 2009 would deteriorate both the recession as well as the deflation. On the other hand, the most favorable entry date was estimated to be the beginning of 2020 with very high probabilities of a larger real output after a few initial periods of a slower growth. The Euro adoption thus appears to be an economic decision with benefits materializing in the longer term rather than an opportunity for an immediate stimulus. JEL Classification C32, C53, C54, C55, E52, F45 Keywords Euro Adoption, Global VAR, Probabilistic Fore- casting Title Czechia's Choice: Would Euro Make a Differ- ence?
|
|
|
The Art of (In)Accuracy: A Meta-Analysis of the European Values Think-Tank's Forecasts
Štěpánek, Matěj ; Kofroň, Jan (advisor) ; Plechanovová, Běla (referee)
Probabilistic forecasts represent a potentially indispensable tool for policy advising, strategic planning, or provision of possible scenarios of future development. It is clear, however, that inaccurate forecasts can entail serious consequences. At best, unsuccessful forecasting attempts may discredit such potentially valuable method in the eyes of decision-making elites. At worst, wrong predictions may lead to the misallocation of scarce resources or to the unnecessary securitization. Nonetheless, probabilistic forecasts have seldom been used in the realm of the Czech security analyses, studies, or debates. Thus, the European Values Think- Tank's research project is a pioneering attempt to utilize the probabilistic forecasting in the Czech politico-security sphere. Due to the fact that the think-tank developed its probabilistic forecasts to help the Czech security elite with strategic planning, the thesis aims to verify the accuracy and predictive capabilities of the European Values. The broader goal is to bring, by the accuracy assessment, the rigor into the Czech probabilistic-forecasting debate. Additionally, the thesis also compares the predictive capabilities of the European Values with the alternative - foreign - forecasts, as well as with other means of accuracy verification. The results...
|
guest ::
