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Analysis of family formation and dissolution processes using multistate demography modelling
Dušek, Zdeněk ; Rychtaříková, Jitka (advisor) ; Kocourková, Jiřina (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the development of the processes of family formation and dissolution in the Czech Republic between 1993 and 2008 using multistate demography. By this method, we analyze probability of transition between individual marriage states and events, which characterise these transitions. The first part of the analysis deals with the population as a whole, while the second part analyses only the part of population in fertile ages. LIPRO program was used to create a model of marital status based on data for the Czech Republic as well as for producing a forecast of population divided by marital status for the years of 2019?2023. Other parts of this thesis support the main aim of the thesis. The level of marriage and divorce rate were analysed between 1993 and 2008 as well as potential factors that could influence the level of above mentioned processes. Rising number of cohabitations could be one of those factors and therefore a special attention is paid to the development of this type of coexistence. Socioeconomic development and family and social policy are mentioned as well, because they could also have significant impact on the processes of formation and dissolution of families. The above mentioned factors and their relationship to the marriage rate are analysed using the...
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Application of demographic analysis in human resources management: A Case study on elite floorball players
Baťková, Markéta ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Janáková Kuprová, Barbora (referee)
Application of demographic analysis in human resources management: A Case study on elite floorball players Abstract This bachelor's thesis focuses on the possibilities of how to apply demographic analysis in the field of human resources management. Part of the work is also a case study which focuses on elite floorball players. The goal of this thesis is to introduce the concept of human resource management in general and to describe the possibilities of applying demographic analysis to other than just ordinary human populations on a theoretical level. The objectives of the case study include, among other things, demonstrating the different career times between men and women. The case study uses individual data of the 100 historically best male floorball players and 100 historically best female floorball players in the Czech Republic. Among the main methods used in demography and human resource management and also in sports are the construction of life tables and survival analysis. In the case study, statistically significant differences were found in the duration of the careers between men and women and in the average ages at the end of the career and in the average ages of achieving indivually best season. Keywords Human Resource Management, Workplace Diversity, Age, Sports, Applied Demography, Life...
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Application of (geo)demographic methods in education
Šebestík, Libor ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Fialová, Ludmila (referee)
Application of (geo)demographic methods in education Abstract This master's thesis presents the possibilities of application of demographic, geodemographic and statistical methods on data published by the educational sector. The methods of demographic analysis are represented by the usage of rates, the concept of multistate demography (Markov chains) and the application of life tables. The enrollment ratio at particular levels of education, the average length of schooling and the number of dropouts from school grades are evaluated by these procedures. Markov chains which are based on the probabilities of transition between grades are also examined in terms of their use for forecasting purposes. These methods analyze the situation at the preschool, primary and secondary levels and are used on data from the annual Statistical Yearbooks on Education. In the field of geodemography, the so called preferential model of migration flows is presented. This model examines how applicants for tertiary education prefer or reject the regions of the Czech Republic for their tertiary education studies. The last method is the binary logistic regression which analyzes the inequalities in access to tertiary education. Both preferential model and logistic regression are based on data files on the admission process at...
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Application of (geo)demographic methods in education
Šebestík, Libor ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Fialová, Ludmila (referee)
Application of (geo)demographic methods in education Abstract This master's thesis presents the possibilities of application of demographic, geodemographic and statistical methods on data published by the educational sector. The methods of demographic analysis are represented by the usage of rates, the concept of multistate demography (Markov chains) and the application of life tables. The enrollment ratio at particular levels of education, the average length of schooling and the number of dropouts from school grades are evaluated by these procedures. Markov chains which are based on the probabilities of transition between grades are also examined in terms of their use for forecasting purposes. These methods analyze the situation at the preschool, primary and secondary levels and are used on data from the annual Statistical Yearbooks on Education. In the field of geodemography, the so called preferential model of migration flows is presented. This model examines how applicants for tertiary education prefer or reject the regions of the Czech Republic for their tertiary education studies. The last method is the binary logistic regression which analyzes the inequalities in access to tertiary education. Both preferential model and logistic regression are based on data files on the admission process at...
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Selected methods of mortality analysis focused on adults and the oldest age-groups
Hulíková Tesárková, Klára ; Burcin, Boris (advisor) ; Dzúrová, Dagmar (referee) ; Fiala, Tomáš (referee)
Selected methods of mortality analysis focused on adults and the oldest age-groups Abstract Questions about human life span, longevity and mortality in general are natural to almost everyone. This Doctoral Thesis deals with one central question - whether some limit of human life span or of its improvements exists. It is rather a methodological work, therefore its aim is to introduce not only relevant theories but above all the methods usable in the mortality analysis focused on adults or the oldest-old. At the beginning the most important theories and opinions of scientist dealing with mortality are introduced. In the first half of the analytical part mainly the traditional and basic approaches are included. The theme of life tables is opened by an analysis of its construction in the Czech Republic, together with its possible modifications. As a result the independent macro code for the SAS software is attached in the electronic Appendix. This macro enables to calculate the unknown parameters of selected mortality laws by the method of weighted non-linear least squares and to produce the smoothed and extrapolated values of mortality rates. Using the individual life durations, life tables according to education attainment were constructed (also attached in the electronic Appendix). In the second half of the...
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Analysis of family formation and dissolution processes using multistate demography modelling
Dušek, Zdeněk ; Rychtaříková, Jitka (advisor) ; Kocourková, Jiřina (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the development of the processes of family formation and dissolution in the Czech Republic between 1993 and 2008 using multistate demography. By this method, we analyze probability of transition between individual marriage states and events, which characterise these transitions. The first part of the analysis deals with the population as a whole, while the second part analyses only the part of population in fertile ages. LIPRO program was used to create a model of marital status based on data for the Czech Republic as well as for producing a forecast of population divided by marital status for the years of 2019?2023. Other parts of this thesis support the main aim of the thesis. The level of marriage and divorce rate were analysed between 1993 and 2008 as well as potential factors that could influence the level of above mentioned processes. Rising number of cohabitations could be one of those factors and therefore a special attention is paid to the development of this type of coexistence. Socioeconomic development and family and social policy are mentioned as well, because they could also have significant impact on the processes of formation and dissolution of families. The above mentioned factors and their relationship to the marriage rate are analysed using the...
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Statistical methods in demographic forecasting
Šimpach, Ondřej ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee) ; Palát, Milan (referee)
Dissertation thesis creates a complex and modern scheme for stochastic modeling of demographic processes, which is universally applicable to any population in the world. All calculations are described in detail on the data of the Czech Republic. Throughout the work the attention is drawn to the issues, that every analyst must necessarily take into account in order to obtain correct results. Data comes mostly from the Czech Statistical Office database. However, some data matrices had to be calculated for the purposes of the thesis. Particular demographic processes (mortality, fertility and migration) are modeled using selected modern approaches (ARIMA models, Lee-Carter method) and based on the constructed models these processes are forecasted to the future. Using partially projected results a comprehensive demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic is created up to the year 2050. However, not on the basis of the current state and expert expectations of the future development, but based on sophistically projected demographic events, which are explained using the trends and main components of their previous development. This demographic projection is created in three scenarios (marked SC1, SC2 and SC3), which are made from selected optimal models, presented in particular sections of the work. One part of the thesis is also the backward retropolation of age-specific number of net migrants by sex in the Czech Republic since 1948. On its basis the analysis and prediction of the migration can be done. The thesis is a synthesis of the projections of demographic processess of mortality, fertility, and migration. Final results are confronted with three scenarios of population projections of the Czech Republic created by the Czech Statistical Office and five scenarios of population projections by Eurostat. The purely statistical approach of demographic forecasting in comparison with deterministic models and expert expectations has its positives and negatives. Therefore, the different results due to various methodological approaches are discussed and compared in the conclusion of the thesis.
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Life tables analysis using selected multivariate statistical methods
Bršlíková, Jana ; Vilikus, Ondřej (advisor) ; Miskolczi, Martina (referee)
The mortality is historically one of the most important demographic indicator and definitely reflects the maturity of each country. The objective of this diploma thesis is the comparison of mortality rates in analyzed countries around the world over time and among each other using the principle component analysis that allows assessing data different way. The big advantage of this method is minimal loss of information and quite understandable interpretation of mortality in each country. This thesis offers several interesting graphical outputs, that for example confirm higher mortality rate in Eastern European countries compared to Western European countries and show that Czech republic is country where mortality has fallen most in context of post-communist countries between 1990 and 2010. Source of the data is Human Mortality Database and all data were processed in statistical tool SPSS.
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Territorial differentiation of mortality in the Czech Republic
Šišková, Lucie ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Šimpach, Ondřej (referee)
The aim of this elaboration was to identify the character of the individual regions of the Czech Republic from the point of view of mortality. At the beginning of the elaboration the basic indicators of mortality, direct and indirect method of standardization were described in detail and then life tables were mentioned. Through the basic indicators of mortality was evaluated long-term situation in the regions. It was found out that mortality rate expressed relatively, neonatal and infant mortality rates are declining in the long-term nature, but in the past few years their values were fluctuating more. The common feature of both the Czech Republic and each region is increasing life expectancy. Life expectancy is often discussed indicator as it is closely related to the aging process. The elaboration also includes comparison of values of life expectancy in the Czech Republic with the values of selected European countries and expected trend of life expectancy in the future. Moreover, the attention is also paid to mortality in the Czech Republic in the last 20 years, focusing on the 90 years of the 20th century when there was a significant improvement in mortality rates. Conclusion of the elaboration deals with mortality by cause of death. In this part cause of death is precisely defined, the classification of cause of death is given and also the basic principles of classification are described. The analysis of mortality by cause of death in the Czech Republic and regions follows. The annex describes the procedure to calculate the complete life tables, zoning classification and the classification of cause of death are given and there are also tables with data about mortality in the years 2000-2010 for the Czech Republic and its regions.
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Analysis of Mortality in Czech Republic During Past 90 Years
Říha, Jan ; Fiala, Tomáš (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee)
This Bachelor thesis is aimed on analysis of mortality in Czech Republic between years 1920 and 2009. Thesis is calculated mortality characteristics and done their comparison with some other countries. Thesis is divided into calculation of crude death rates, infant mortality rates, neonatal mortality rates, specific mortality rates in 5 years interval (divided into biological generations), complete life tables (life expectancy) and indirect standardization. Mostly rates are computed different for men and women.
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