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On multifractality and predictability of financial time series
Heller, Michael ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to examine an empirical relationship between multifrac- tality of financial time series and its returns. We approach the multifractality of a given time series as a measure of its complexity. Multifractal financial time series exhibit repeating self-similar patterns. Multifractality could be a good predictor of stock returns or a factor which can be used in asset pricing. We expected that capturing the complexity of a given time series by a model, a positive or a negative risk premia for investing into "more multifractal assets" could be found. Daily prices of 31 stock indices and daily returns of 10-years US government bonds were downloaded. All the data were recorded between 2012 and 2021. After estimation the multifractal spectra, applying MF-DFA method, of all stock indices, we ordered all stock indices from the lowest to the most multifractal. Then, we constructed a "multifractal portfolio" holding a long position in the 7 most multifractal and holding a short position in the 7 least multifractal stock indices. Fama-MacBeth regression with market risk premia and multifractal variable as independent variables was applied. Multi- fractality in all examined financial time series was found. We also found a very low negative risk premia for holding "a multifractal...
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Valuation in electronic commerce market within the comparison of different economy system
Zhang, Fan ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
Abstract In 2019 e-commerce market become one of the most important part to push the global economic growth especially in China and US. In 2020 Covid-19 has widely spread around the world which caused a severe economic crisis, but e-commerce market has gained benefit from it. In this study will discuss how e-commerce will perform in future and how e-commerce reacts and defend in this crisis. This study used method of discounted cash flow to track the fundamental information of EC market as representative of Alibaba and Amazon, also used event study method to test influence of COVID-19 in the whole industry
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Analýza výkonnosti podílových fondů a ETF fondů
Vystoupil, Jan
This Diploma thesis is focused on performance comparison between mutual funds and classic ETF. In the theoretic part, essence and the principle of functioning of mutual funds and ETF are described. In conclusion of the theoretical part is included an overview of empirical studies that are focused on the same topic. In the empirical part is performed comparison between mutual funds and ETF which are selected from 4 economic sectors and oriented on the American market exclusively. Funds performance comparison is performed from the perspective of chosen investment time horizon and in the context of declining, growing and stagnating of the American stock market. Investment recommendation is made according to results obtained from the empirical part.
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Možnosti voľby vhodných metodických postupov pre ocenenine podniku
Bartko, Patrik
This diploma thesis focuses on the evaluation of suitable methodological procedures in business valuation. Firstly, it means comparison of different ways of every author, depending on international and national valuation standards. Second step is practical application of valuation methods. In the result, there are three values and each of them is looking on valuation from different way. That’s one of the most important aspect in this thesis, and main reason, why is thesis focusing on singularity of each method in particular situations. In the final recommendations, this thesis considers, that main problem are valuations standards in Czech Republic. For higher level of business valuation is important complete these standards.
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Aplikácia modelu CAPM na dlhopisový trh v USA
Zacharová, Beáta
The thesis is focused on the equilibrium single factor capital asset pricing model CAPM and its ability to explain risk-return relationship of corporate bonds in the USA. The CAPM model is applied on historical data of five chosen corporate bonds that represent different economic sectors in the period of last ten years. The examined period begins in October 2008 and finishes in September 2018. The ability of CAPM model to explain returns of chosen bonds with factor beta which represents systemic risk is tested on the investment horizon of three, five and seven years with monthly data frequency. Empirical testing proved that the ability of the model to explain bond returns with the risk factor beta has been weak in the last years, which questions its current relevance in the tested market.
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Performance Evaluation of Real Estate Investment and Mutual Funds
Janková, Zuzana ; Novotná, Veronika (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
Diploma thesis deals with the evaluation and the comparison of the performance of mutual funds and investment funds with a focus on the real estate sector. The essence and principles of mutual funds, ETF and REIT are presented, and the resulting weaknesses and advantages. According to the selected indicators, the profitability, riskiness and expense of the investment opportunities are examined and investment recommendations for management of an investment company and potential retail investors are established.
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The dynamics of the energy sector beta coefficient
Šimečková, Martina ; Frýd, Lukáš (advisor) ; Jindra, Marek (referee)
This bachelor thesis investigates the presence of asymmetric reactions in systemic risk and its development over time. The estimation is done utilising three DCC family models and the OLS model. The asymmetric reactions were found to be significant in both, the volatility of energy companies based portfolio returns and the correlation between this portfolio and a market portfolio. Due to the statistical significance of all resulting parameters of each model, we have also succeeded in confirming that energy sector's beta is time varying. By testing the estimation of each beta coefficient alone, we have come to the conclusion that a statistically significant difference arises only when utilising an asymmetric volatility model.
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Stock Portfolio Selection and Analysis
Filipová, Adriana ; Čech, Tomáš (advisor) ; Krajhanzl, Martin (referee)
The main aim of the thesis is to perform portfolio selection based on principles of Markowitz portfolio theory using ex-post approach, CAPM model, three factor and five factor Fama-French model and to compare their achieved performance with each other and with their expectd values. Intensity of relationship between equity risk premiums and each of the factors - premiums is estimated using linear regression analysis, followed by evaluation of quality of models based on regression results. Eventually, optimal portfolio for each model is selected and empirically tested. The outcome determines which portfolio performance was the best and the most accurate.
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Multifaktorové oceňovací modely
Karpišová, Iveta ; Fučík, Vojtěch (advisor) ; Stádník, Bohumil (referee)
The theme of this bachelor`s thesis is pricing assets with multifactor fundamental pricing models. We cover the theoretical ground of the single-factor model and three multifactor models, the 3-factor Fama and French model, the 4-factor Carhart model and the 5-factor Fama and French model. The practical part aims to evaluate the explanatory power of the models based on the result of their application on the real financial data, the daily price of the 30 assets of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The main achievement is the fact that the best performance on an equally weighted portfolio is that of the 4-factor Carhart model, whereas the market capitalization weighted portfolio`s best estimation is gained with the 5-factor Fama and French model. The difference of the explanatory power of the models is dependent on the way one weights his portfolio and this is proven as statistically important based on the data used in the thesis.
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Analysis of dynamics of beta coefficient in the CAPM model using models of asymmetric volatility and correlation
Staňková, Tereza ; Frýd, Lukáš (advisor) ; Jiránek, Petr (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate the dynamic development of the beta coefficient for the pharmaceutical industry and agriculture to test the influence of asymmetry in volatility and correlation on the estimation of this coefficient. OLS rolling window, Dynamic Conditional Correlation by Engle (2002) and its asymmetric version by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard (2006) were used to demonstrate the dynamic development of the beta coefficient. In the case of agriculture, the asymmetry in scattering and correlation had a statistically significant impact on the beta coefficient estimate. In the case of the pharmaceutical industry, the beta coefficients of these models differed only in shorter periods of high volatility. In addition, the ability to predict beta during crisis was better for these models than for the beta published by Damodaran.
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