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Reexports and indirect exports of Visegrad countries to China via Germany
Wlazel, Marek ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Želinský, Tomáš (referee)
Export of Visegrad countries to China is not only direct but is often realized via third countries. Sometimes this export is simply reexported, sometimes it enters the domestic economy as an input in production of exports of the third country and then we speak about indirect export. Due to data availability, however, it is very difficult to accurately track these flows for every single product and therefore they must be estimated from national input-output tables. This paper calculates the reexports and indirect exports of Visegrad goods led through Germany, as it is the most dominant export destination of all the Visegrad countries and also the main exporter to China in the whole EU. The results show that the V4 exports to China in fact more than suggested by the official statistics. Attributing reexports and indirect exports via Germany increases total exports by 68%. Measured values also show that 55% of Visegrad exports to Germany are not intended to cover domestic consumption but for further exports. Keywords Export, reexport, indirect export, Visegrad countries, Germany, China, statistical discrepancies, Rotterdam effect, input-output analysis
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Gravity model for Czech Republic - Test of the effects of indirect trade
Wlazel, Marek ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to incorporate the effects of the indirect trade into the gravity model for Czech Republic. Using data from the recently released OECD-WTO TiVA database, a panel of 56 countries in 5 years between 1995 and 2009 is constructed. The traditional approach of estimating the log- linear form of the equation is questioned and in line with current academic research, the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method is applied. The empirical analysis does not reveal any unambiguous effect of adjusting the gross exports for their foreign content; it rather confirms that Czech ex- ports are significantly driven by the demand for German exports and finds that they are the higher the greater is the share of services value added. Furthermore, it is found that the destination of Czech exports is not signif- icantly determined by target country's participation in global value chains. JEL Classification C13, C23, C67, F14, F60 Keywords gravity model, indirect trade, trade in value added, Czech Republic, Poisson regression, panel data Author's e-mail marek.wlazel@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vsemerak@yahoo.com
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Reexports and indirect exports of Visegrad countries to China via Germany
Wlazel, Marek ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Želinský, Tomáš (referee)
Export of Visegrad countries to China is not only direct but is often realized via third countries. Sometimes this export is simply reexported, sometimes it enters the domestic economy as an input in production of exports of the third country and then we speak about indirect export. Due to data availability, however, it is very difficult to accurately track these flows for every single product and therefore they must be estimated from national input-output tables. This paper calculates the reexports and indirect exports of Visegrad goods led through Germany, as it is the most dominant export destination of all the Visegrad countries and also the main exporter to China in the whole EU. The results show that the V4 exports to China in fact more than suggested by the official statistics. Attributing reexports and indirect exports via Germany increases total exports by 68%. Measured values also show that 55% of Visegrad exports to Germany are not intended to cover domestic consumption but for further exports. Keywords Export, reexport, indirect export, Visegrad countries, Germany, China, statistical discrepancies, Rotterdam effect, input-output analysis
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