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A forecast of Commercial Real Estate Development and Investment Volumes in the Czech Republic
Nguyen, Thanh Tu ; Jandík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This thesis attempts to forecast investment volumes of the commercial real estate market in the Czech Republic in the medium-term from 2017 to 2020, using both qualitative methods and econometric models. Fundamental analysis and chart analysis are employed while judgemental forecasts by market experts are collected. In order to find evidence of historical and upcoming commercial asset price bubbles, a state-of-the-art peak-tagging technique and chart analysis for the graph of commercial real estate capital value index are used before integrating with market specialists' opinions. Neither CRE bubble nor signal for future major downturn has been found since 2000 despite the occurance of minor overpricing periods. ARIMA and several VAR models with endogenous and exogenous variables are run to find the best quantitative forecasts. Final forecasted investment volume for the upcoming years is found by integrating experts' opinion and results from the chosen model. JEL Classification R33 Keywords commercial real estate, investment, investment volumes, prime yields, office properties, shopping centres, industrial properties, Czech Republic Author's e-mail 88176426@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail tomas.jandik@reicofunds.cz
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Microfinance: Fighting poverty vs. sustainable banking
Tesař, Martin ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
The thesis deals with microfinance institutions and their ability to serve very poor clients even without a continuous inflow of subsidies from donors. After disclosing the specificities that distinguish the clientele of these organizations from the clients of commercial banks in the developer world, the analysis of selected institutions from South Asia, includng the famous Grameen Bank of Bangladesh, is performed. Using the data gathered from their annual reports of these microfinance institutions, the individual dependence on subsides during one decade is evaluated. The final part of the thesis utilizes the similarities that appear in the individual axamination and the econometric analysis of the data for the extraction of the key factors and strategies that can help to decrease the dependence of this sector on donor financial support. The analysis finds that higher depth of outreach of an organization to the very poor does not inevitably lead to lower level of self- sustainability. The way to profitability may reside in appropriate interest rate policy and mobilization of savings.
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Real Estate as a Hedge against Inflation
Pivoňková, Alexandra ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
In recent years, real estate has gained vast popularity as an investment tool, as it has exhibited attractive returns both in its direct, and indirect form. Investments are generally sought after for their potential for profit generation as well as protection from the loss of purchasing power of one's capital. The extent to which individual assets hedge investors from inflation has become a widely discussed topic with conclusions varying across different studies. This thesis endeavors to update the research by observing asset returns and inflation in 4 countries, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, the USA, and China, and analyzing the performance of individual assets in terms of inflation hedging by employing the latest data in a regression model. The studied period covers Q1 2009 - Q3 2022, where all data are in the form of annual returns, benched by individual quarters. With the main focus on real estate, comparison with the performance of other assets is included, namely bonds issued by governments of the observed countries, REITs performance, represented by the FTSE EPRA Developed Index, and stock returns, in the form of the S&P 500 index. The study then categorizes each investment tool based on its inflation-hedging properties. JEL Classification: G11, E31, R30, HR39 Keywords: inflation, hedge,...
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Industrial relations'importance for the economic performance
Malá, Barbora ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Štiková, Radka (referee)
The aim of my bachelor thesis is to point out the industrial relations system as one of the key aspects of labor productivity, as well as the character of the economy. At first, I describe briefly the role of trade unions in the Post-Socialist Europe, and then in the advanced industrial democracies, to show the main differences in the interpretation of trade union meaning among these countries. The selected group of western democratic countries is the analysis' object. It's purpose is to try to find out if there exists any correlation between union density and labor productivity. I have at disposal the data for the period of 1990 to 2005 and I have chosen five European traditionally democratic countries to be compared: Sweden, Germany, Italy, France and Great Britain. My intention here is to point out the fact that despite overall weakening of European trade unions' personal resources the current union power and collective bargaining achievements depend predominantly on the traditional industrial relations concept of each country. The question of immediate interest is to what extent the institutional system influence the character of the production process. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Microfinance : fighting poverty vs. sustainable banking
Tesař, Martin ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
The thesis deals with microfinance institutions and their ability to serve very poor clients even without a continuous inflow of subsidies from donors. After disclosing the specificities that distinguish the clientele of these organizations from the clients of commercial banks in the developed world, the analysis of selected institutions from South Asia, including the famous Grameen Bank of Bangladesh, is performed. Using the data gathered from their annual reports of these microfinance institutions, the individual dependence on subsides during one decade is evaluated. The final part of the thesis utilizes the similarities that appear in the individual examination and the econometric analysis of the data for the extraction of the key factors and strategies that can help to decrease the dependence of this sector on donor financial support. The analysis finds that higher depth of outreach of an organization to the very poor does not inevitably lead to lower level of self-sustainability. The way to profitability may reside in appropriate interest rate policy and mobilization of savings. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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The relationship between the European antitrust policy and national competition authorities
Bečičková, Hana ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Hrubý, Zdeněk (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to compare the behavior and the institutional embedding of the national competition authorities of member countries of the EU and to assess the level of harmonization among them and in comparison to the institutions dealing with competition policy on the European level. The main contribution is a complex summary of the most important principles of competition policy functioning, the data collection and the construction of a simple competition policy harmonization index. By applying this index on a set of member countries, a high level of harmonization among the individual competition authorities was found. However, by comparing the results of the index for two non-member states, it is not possible to confirm the hypothesis of the membership in the EU being the only explication of the level of harmonization found.
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The Czech pharmaceutical industry : Do specific features of the relevant market provide sufficient incentives for an effective informal regulation?
Stacho, Miroslav ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Fialová, Kamila (referee)
The bachelor thesis provides an overview of specific features of relevant market. Based on both empirical and theoretical findings it attempts to justify sufficiency of drug producers' incentives for an effective self-regulation of their (un)ethical conduct. The overview in the first part of the thesis includes brief description of R&D process, statutory interventions before and after a new drug is introduced to the market, area and tools of self-regulation enfocement. Subsequently, a model combining conclusions from previous chapters, additional relevant studies and practical experience from Czech market is drafted and tries to answer central question of the thesis whether sufficient incentives exist for the producers to monitor themselves effectively.
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Residential real estate market during the financial crisis : empirical evidence from the CEE region
Hrachovec, Martin ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
1 Abstract This thesis investigates the housing price determinants and possibilities of housing price bubbles in the residential real estate markets of Central and Eastern Europe before and during the economic crisis of 2007-2009. Using data from international institutions, national central banks and national statistical offices three quantitative methods are applied. Price-to-income ratios suggest housing price bubbles that were eliminated during the crisis in three out of five countries covered. Second approach of simple panel data models sheds additional light on housing price bubbles and indicates GDP growth, unemployment and average real wage as the main determinants of housing prices in the region. First indication of severe housing price persistence in CEE is demonstrated by the results of the models as well. More reliable results for housing price determinants are obtained from variance decomposition and impulse response functions of vector autoregression models. Each country is modeled separately and substantial differences exist between the countries. Poland is the only country that does not exhibit housing price persistence and dynamics in Austria are less volatile as compared to the new EU members in the sample. JEL Classification G12, E39, R21, R31, R32 Keywords residential real estate, housing...
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