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Signaling by IPO Under-Pricing: Evidence from the Central Europe
Čornanič, Aleš ; Novák, Jiří (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
i Abstract This Master Thesis is focused on under-pricing of initial public offering. We examine the possibility of signaling by IPO under-pricing on Polish data over the period 2005 - 2010. Signaling by IPO under-pricing is analyzed using signaling model. Taking into consideration the uniqueness of Polish sample, we also analyze the signaling by IPO under- pricing used to the build up the government reputation as market-oriented. Our results suggest the statistical significant positive effect of IPO under-pricing on probability of seasoned equity issue as well as on size of seasoned issue. These findings together with negative relation between IPO under-pricing and lag between IPO and seasoned issue are consistent with predictions of signaling model. We do not find any statistical significant evidence that the Polish government tries to build up reputation for its privatization policy over time by under-pricing and selling a high fraction at the initial offer. Keywords IPO under-pricing, signaling hypothesis, Central Europe, asymmetric information, seasoned equity offering, privatization
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Government debt policy: modern approach through derivatives and alternative bonds
Čavojec, Ján ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
This master thesis discusses alternative debt management instruments - GDP-linked bonds. It provides concise characterization of sovereign debt management. Additionally, it discusses traditional derivatives, such as futures, swaps and bonds, from the government's point of view. The main goal of the thesis is to verify whether GDP-linked bonds are suitable for the Czech and Slovak debt management. Ergo, the bonds could smooth the cost of serving the debt. Furthermore, it describes the development of the sovereign debt and risk premium of the government bonds of the Czech and Slovak republics. It tries to find out whether the risk premium of Slovak bonds differed after introduction of euro. Additionally, the thesis analyzes the effect of various country specific variables on the development of the risk premium. The last but not least goal is to support or reject the hypothesis whether the GDP-linked bonds should be appealing to European economic and monetary union as the members has to satisfied Stability and Growth Pact requirements. The conclusion of the thesis is that the hypothesis of positive effect of the GDP-linked bonds on the cost of serving debt is partly rejected in case of the Czech and Slovak republics as well as in the case of European economic and monetary union. Furthermore, the risk...
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Speculative versus Fair Price of Crude Oil
Šlechta, Pavel ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
The thesis deals with the topic of speculation on the crude oil market. This topic has been frequently discussed in association with the price hikes in 2008, but since the oil price has recently repeatedly reached levels over USD 100, the topic is still very present. In our thesis we analyze the connection between the increasing open interest on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures market, the supply and demand factors for the crude oil and the crude oil price. Based on an error correction model analysis of monthly observations between 1994 and 2011, we show how an increase in the open interest, which is currently already comprised by the non-commercial traders by one half, can lead to a persistent increase in the crude oil prices. We believe it is the risk premium on the market which stands for the long-run equilibrium of the open interest and prices. Such a risk premium on the market of crude oil could explain the part of the increase in prices which could have not been captured by the simple supply and demand, as for example the concern about the Hubbert's peak oil. We also test whether the oil price volatility increases the open interest on the market, which would mean that the price volatility could attract more speculative traders. Although we find Granger causality, we cannot...
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Analysis of economic methods applied in regulatory impact assessment
Malinská, Barbora ; Gutiérrez Chvalkovská, Jana (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
This thesis analyzes the topic of economic methods applied in regulatory impact assessment (RIA). The sense of a RIA system, assumptions of its effective functioning and its place in the framework of the EU's and Czech Republic's legislative process are introduced. Economic methods often used within the regulatory impact assessment process are discussed. The thesis empirically examines the progress in RIA methods quality between 2008 and 2011 in the Czech Republic and determinants of RIA methods quality are identified. We come to conclusion that the quality of RIA methods in the Czech Republic grows with expected costs of the regulatory policy and in case of RIA carried by an external subject.
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How Tax, Labor Market and Product Markets Reforms Influence Foreign Direct Investment
Tydlačková, Stanislava ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
This work analyses industry level Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in order to find out if their determinants are the same for all industries or if they differ and how. The second important question is if various qualitative variables as labour market or product market liberalization or taxation determines flows to individual industries. I analyse seven industries by System GMM model for period from 1994 till 2009. The results suggests that inflows to each industry are driven by distinct set of determinants. While there are nearly non-significant determinants for agriculture among explanatory variables I used, there is many of them significant for services. Concerning qualitative variables, labour market liberalization influence FDI inflows to manufacturing and mining, product market liberalization influence inflows to transportation and electricity, gas and water industry. The level of taxation seem to be significant determinant of FDI inflows to manufacturing. Keywords FDI, Foreign direct investment by industry, Structural reforms, Labour Market, Lib- eralization, GMM, taxation 4
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Empirical Analysis on Multiple Mergers of US Banks
Le Thi Hong, Minh ; Novák, Jiří (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
We use logistic analysis to predict the probability of making non-programmed merger in a data sample of 45 US banks. Non-programmed merger is the merger that happens next to the subject merger but has at least three years apart from the subject merger. We apply logistic regression of the occurrence of the non-programmed merger on main characteristics of the subject merger. We first examine the effects of each of three explanatory variables, which are firstly abnormal return around the approved date, secondly hubris management hidden in the subject merger, and thirdly the value of asset acquired, on the dependent variable. We then try to find the best prediction model by controlling some variables both confounding and rescaling. Our final prediction model shows that the probability of making a next merger at least three year after the subject merger will significantly decrease if there is abnormal return realized in the subject merger. On the other hand, using event study methodology to search for the abnormal return of the acquirer's stock price around the approved date, we prove that the information of FDIC s' merger decision is not totally confidential to public and has significant impact on the stock price of the acquirer
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Effectivity of Czech tax administration in comparison with the EU
Blažková, Vendula ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
The tax systems analysis is quite common nowadays. Though, the tax administration and its institutional background stay in the back of our interests. Anyway, it is as important for the state budget revenues as the tax rates and objects of the tax are. Therefore, this paper focuses on the effectiveness of Czech tax administration with respect to its regulations and the regarding institutions and their organization as well. The purpose of this paper is to determine which of the Czech administration parts are effective in comparison with other EU member states and which still show potential for improvement. After the current Czech tax administration regulation was evaluated the indicator "cost of collection" was chosen. The movement in this indicator was explained by another variables corresponding to the appropriate phase of the tax administration. Although the accuracy of chosen indicator showed certain level of imperfections the accepted conclusions are in harmony with the conclusions made by the assessment using cost of compliance method. According to the conclusions, for Czech Republic there is big potential in debt enforcement improvement and in its performance concerning tax disputes. In case Czech Republic follows the positive trend established by the current complex tax reform we can await...
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Merger Control in the European Union
Moldovanu, Victoria ; Serdarevič, Goran (advisor) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
The main goal in this paper is to make an in-depth analysis of the regulatory situations that can arise during mergers when political involvement takes place. The research is based on four controversial merger cases of undertakings within the same country (E.On-Ruhrgas), European Union countries (E.On-Endesa, Unicredit-Hypoverein) and between companies from the USA (Boeing-McDonnell Douglas) that have effect on the European market. We analyze the four mergers using Michele Ruta and Massimo Motta models from the paper "A Political Economy of Merger Policy in International Markets" (2008). By the end of the research we reached the conclusion that due to some lapses in the European Commission Merger regulation at the time of the mergers, as well as due to government involvement in the mergers, they are not always cleared in the benefit of the market competition or consumer welfare, but due to nationalistic interests of governments to have big players on the market or to keep governmental power in certain industries, even with the risk of harming competition. Along with this, from the mergers analyzed here, it becomes clear that local or union authorities scrutinize the foreign acquirers more.
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CreditMetrics - its application in the Czech Republic's business environment
Čermák, Petr ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
Credit risk is the most important risk a financial institution has to deal with. The Bank for International Settlements proposed an analytical model which allows banks to calculate capital requirements for credit risk of an investment portfolio. Also several optional models were developed by financial institutions to measure credit risk. This thesis compares two different approaches measuring credit risk: the first one, Basel II, was proposed by the Bank for International Settlements and is used by financial institutions, the other one, CreditMetrics, is an optional framework based on external rating and transition matrix. In the theoretical part, problems related to credit rating agencies are described. Furthermore, four optional models measuring credit risk, based on the Value at Risk approach, and Basel II are introduced; the focus is on their advantages, disadvantages and basic principles. However, the main goal of the thesis is the CreditMetrics framework; its assumptions, limitations, advantages and credit risk measuring procedures are described. Building on the theoretical part, a hypothetical portfolio containing Czech corporate bonds is introduced; using the Basel II approach and the CreditMetrics approach, its capital adequacy is calculated. Finally, the results of our research, in which several...
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The Efficiency of Regulation in the European Union
Serdarevič, Goran ; Mejstřík, Michal (advisor) ; Žigić, Krešimir (referee) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
This dissertation deals with the topic of economic regulation, focusing on applying empirical methods to assess the efficiency of regulatory measures used in different areas of the EU economy. It consists of three parts, the first part looks at the functioning of the EU merger control, the second and third focus on the relationship between regulation, competition and investment in telecommunications markets. The first chapter deals with the EU competition policy and the specific area of merger control, analysing empirically the impact of introducing more economic approach in evaluating competition effects of mergers at the EU level. Our key finding is that the regulatory reform introduced in 2004 has, to some extent, enhanced the efficiency of European merger control. This implies that the Commission's assessments of mergers under the new regulation post the 2004 reform are more consistent with the independent market evaluations. We find that the probability of an anti-competitive deal being cleared decreases significantly under the new regulatory framework. Nevertheless, the occurrence of unnecessary remedies imposed on pro-competitive mergers has not decreased as the result of the new merger control. Overall, our results indicate that more economic approach applied post 2004 reform increased the...
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