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Taylor Rule and Its Macroeconomics Relations
Mičúch, Marek ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Kupka, Martin (referee) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
Despite considerable research on the monetary policy rules, little is known about internal relation between policy rules targets. Research approach frequently consists in estimating parameters or identifying variables to make the rule operate accurately. The overall image that emerges from the literature is that there is no contradiction in attaining the targets once set properly. Dissertation switches attention to mutual feasibility of incorporated targets. To contribute to this strikingly overlooked fact hypothesis is tested. Analyzed are variances of inflation and output representing policy rule targets. Time regression processed throughout OLS technique, gap analysis and calculation of variances are applied as principal analytical tools. Examined are data for 14 countries. Countries are divided into two groups according to size of their economy: small economies (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Ireland, The Nederlands and Slovak Republic); large economies (Euro zone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and USA). Results of the analysis show that once monetary authority follows policy rule with multiple targets it faces restriction. Rather than achieving both targets at one time it must respect trade off between them. According to data for selected countries hypothesis is accepted. Variances of output consistently proved to be higher than variances of inflation. Whence it follows that authority need to solve constrained optimization problem. It needs to pick out combination of differently large variances contrary to wining with all reaching low levels.
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Harmonizace fiskálních politik
Kosek, Petr ; Babin, Jan (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
Economies of member states of EU are very dependent on each other, most of them due to common currency. If they want to avoid negative spillover effects of their fiscal politics, they create a collection of ruels, which they have to follow. The main object of this work would be estimation of harmonization of fiscal policies (generally) and estimation of real effects of fiscal harmonization target on economies of EU member states. Another object would be analysis of new fiscal harmonization in EU, which was introduced in spring 2008 by European Commission.
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Financial stability in terms of the Czech republic
Hustolesová, Lucie ; Čermáková, Klára (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
This bachelor thesis is supposed to evaluace financial stability in terms of the Czech Republic. To evaluace financial stability, I adopted three criterions from the economist Frederic S. Mishkin, which are in correspondence with financial stability's assumptions of the Czech national bank. These criterions are 1. the price stability, 2. the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy and 3. the bank sector supervision. I use tools of regression analysis as well as datas international comparison. I evaluate all three assumptions gradually and consecutively I draw a conclusion about financial stability of the czech economy based on the criterions' state of fulfilment.
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Měnová politika a současná krize: Co lze vyčíst z „minutes“?
Gryčová, Marta ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
Abstract Based on the Romer and Romer (1989) methodology this paper analyzes behavior of the US Federal Reserve System (FED) and the Czech National Bank (CNB) during the recent crisis. It explores minutes and press releases from the meetings of the Bank Board of the CNB and the Federal Open Market Committee of the FED, i.e. on one hand from the side of a small open economy that has been hit mainly through decline in foreign demand, on the other from the side of a big closed economy, in which the recent crisis has originated. It compares reaction in interest rate and adequacy of unconventional measures with a prediction of a simple 'Taylor rule' (Taylor, 1993) and tries to evaluate the adequacy of the overall reaction of mentioned central banks to the crisis.
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The analysis of Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank with an emphasis on inflation targeting
Justianová, Lucie ; Mirvald, Michal (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
Thesis bachelor topic is "Analysis of Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank, with an emphasis on inflation targeting." In the introduction to summarize the CNB's monetary policy. Explain what types of transmission mechanisms were used the Czech National Bank. I will focus specifically on the transmission mehcanism of inflation targeting. Subsequently I will analyze how the CNB managed to maintain symmetry between inflation expectations and inflation target, which inspires me to work on empirical studies and Holub Hurnik [2008] and Horvath [2008]. I will analyze using the LM-test [Charemze-Deadman, 1992] and Granger causality tests between the existing impact of inflation and money supply, exchange rate and wage. I make a regression analysis generated by the VAR-model and show how strong the impact of inflation to changes in monetary, exchange rate and wage growth. If there is a stable state of the monitored variables in relation to inflation, I estimate what the rate impact of exchange rate changes, monetary and wages.
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Private health insurance
Sedláček, Petr ; Ducháčková, Eva (advisor) ; Daňhel, Jaroslav (referee)
The theme of work is private health insurance. First is it described in the system of health insurance and then in the territory of Czech Republic. In the work is analyzed a new draft bill of Public health insurance and systems of health insurance in the Europe. Main goal of the thessis is to find suitable privat insurance product for Czech Republic.
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Currency crises and the role of International Monetary Fund
Dostálek, Marek ; Helísek, Mojmír (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
Thesis analyses role of International Monetary Fund in currency crises its proceedings and instruments and thereof arising criticism. In the first chapter there are stated definitions of currency crises, described their causes and possibilities of prevention. Short description of the Fund and used instruments in its operations are also included. The main focus is on analysis of the approach of the IMF to significant currency crises since 1990's. Mexican, south-east Asian, Argentinean and Icelandic crises are analyzed. As a practical aspect of the thesis approach of the IMF to currency crisis in the Czech republic in 1997 is examined as well. In analysis there is always stated overall description of the crisis, approach of the IMF to mitigation of the crisis and thereof arising experts' criticism. In the last chapter there is analysis of certain reports and commissions that dealt with Fund's operations and suggested reforms. Experts' opinions (Kenen, Sedlacek, Jonas) of the IMF's functioning and its summary are also part of the chapter.
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Efektivnost inflačního cílování v tranzitivních ekonomikách, případ České republiky
Chytilová, Helena ; Sedláček, Petr (advisor) ; Halás, Vladimír (referee)
This paper examines Czech experience with inflation targeting. It tries to assess empirically character of deviations from inflation targets throughout the time. It assess situation also in an international context. Consequently it analyse ability of IT regime to anchor inflation expectations in context of CNB?s forecasting performance. Results imply that although deviations were quite frequent in the Czech Republic, their occurrence has not been a barrier for delivering lower inflation and its lower volatility. Notwithstanding, its volatility remains significantly above the range experienced in the EU and the EMU countries. Regarding the inflation expectations, monetary policy surprises tend to be smaller over time,signalising that IT regime is priced by the markets. Thus, credibility of the CNB, concerning anchoring of inflation expectations, seems to improve after introduction of IT regime. It also indicates that IT regime is a quite appropriate regime for the upcoming period of time, which will be end up by the entry in the EMU.
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Indikátory hospodářského cyklu pro Českou republiku
Sedláček, Petr ; Janáček, Kamil (advisor) ; Halás, Vladimír (referee)
Tato práce se pokouší sestavit kompozitní předstihový indikátor pro českou ekonomiku. V diskuzi se objevuje několik metodologických přístupů, ale nakonec je zvolen přístup, kdy se nejprve sestaví indikátory pro jednotlivé složky HDP. Takto sestavené indikátory jsou posléze agregovány do kompozitního předstihového indikátoru čtvrtletního HDP. Výsledky těchto indikátorů jsou smíšené. Musíme mít neustále na paměti problematičnost interpretace výsledků podobných studií v kontextu české ekonomiky. Přesto však lze usoudit, že indikátory dlouhého předstihu mohou sloužit jako první hrubé odhady budoucích tendencí. Indikátor s nulovým minimálním předstihem pak může sloužit jako přesnější odhad nejbližší budoucnosti (dvě čtvrtletí) či jako ?bleskový odhad? vývoje současného HDP.
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