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Ekonomická sladěnost České republiky s eurozónou ve světle finanční krize
Hájek, Jan ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This paper deals with the issue of synchronization of the Czech economy and the economy of the eurozone. The OCA theory which is key theoretical basis for the analysis contained in the paper is briefly described in the first part. In the second part cyclical and structural synchronization is evaluated by the means of correlation coefficients of the development of GDP, industrial production, inflation and interest rates. The obtained results show sufficient level of synchronization, impacts of the financial crisis also rather contributed to the current level of synchronization. Arguments for and against synchronization are discussed in the third part as well as mutual dependency of the both economies. Two quarters time lag of the Czech GDP growth rate behind the eurozone is discovered in the pre-crisis period. At the end OCA- index for the Czech Republic is recalculated, the value of the OCA-index for the Czech Republic is the lowest among tested countries.
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Supervision of the Integrated European Banking Market
Trpčevski, Ivan ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to analyse the Europe-wide banking supervision. The thesis points out the problems and shortcomings of the pre-crisis framework, analyses mutually competitive proposals for change that emerged during the crisis and possibility of their implementation. It incorporates the appraisal of adopted legislative changes prepared by the European Commission and their impact in this context. Therefore, core of the thesis is a pre- crisis fragmented supervision and the European System of Financial Supervisors adopted in November 2010. The thesis points out the need to address fiscal issues along with the supervisory setting. Despite a very narrow focus of the thesis, it is characterized by a holistic approach. The topic of banking supervision at the level of the European Union is considered in a much broader institutional context, in the context of the integration of the banking sector during the past 30 years, and the latest financial crisis, as well. The thesis is evolutionary. It points out that there is no institutional form of efficient banking supervision. The process of institutional change, leading to the achievement of efficient supervision of the banking sector, is perceived rather as a long-run, in-depth process. It follows institutional changes in a much broader context than...
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Theory of protectionism and trade policy of the European Union
Dobrovolný, Jan ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Mertlík, Pavel (referee)
The thesis deals with the issue of protectionism, i.e. governmental policies for restricting international trade, from both theoretical and practical point of view. The first part is concerned with theory of protectionism in the framework of perfect competition in world markets. The emphasis is placed on the tariff on imports as the basic instrument of protectionist international trade policy. The second part is focused practically and deals with protectionist instruments within trade policy of the European Union. The Common Agricultural Policy of European Union is analyzed more properly. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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The financial instability hypothesis of Hyman P. Minsky and its apllication to the current financial crisis
Paulus, Michal ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Skuhrovec, Jiří (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman P. Minsky and its application to the current financial crisis. The first part of the thesis summarizes the hypothesis, and it mentions works elaborating the hypothesis. The second part of the bachelor thesis applies the hypothesis to the current financial crisis. The whole thesis refers to the general discussion about relations of the Minsky's hypothesis to the current financial crisis and to the fall of the insurance company AIG Corporation. The second part concludes that many relevant parts of Minsky's hypothesis can be applied to the recent financial crisis but important differences of the current financial system to the system in Minsky's times should be awared of. There are two most important differences: changes in risk management and new financial instruments. At the end, the thesis discusses the implications of these differences for applicability of the hypothesis on the current financial crisis. The thesis regards the fact that the recent financial crisis is caused by rational behaviour of economic agents and not by exogenous forces as the most important lesson to learn from the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman P. Minsky.
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Supervision of the integrated European banking market : Time to rethink the institutional framework?
Trpčevski, Ivan ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to analyse the Europe-wide banking supervision. The thesis points out the existing problems and shortcomings of the current framework, analyses mutually competitive proposals for change and possibility of their implementation. It incorporates the appraisal of currently proposed legislative changes prepared by the European Commission and their impact in this context. Despite a very narrow focus of the thesis, it is characterized by a holistic approach. The topic of banking supervision at the level of the European Union is considered in a much broader institutional context, in the context of the integration of the banking sector during the past 30 years, and the latest financial crisis, as well. The thesis is evolutionary. It points out that there is no institutional form of efficient banking supervision. The process of institutional change, leading to the achievement of efficient supervision of the banking sector, is perceived rather as a long-run, in-depth process. It follows institutional changes in a much broader context than that of the banking supervision itself.
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Cross-Border Contagion: An Empirical Analysis of the Current Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe
Žáková, Kristýna ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Mertlík, Pavel (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to examine cross-border contagion effects during the 2007-09 crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and from all the possible propagation channels, it chooses to focus on cross-border bank loans. It tries to discover which global and local factors had significant influence on the changes in bank loans from banks in source (lending) countries to banks, as well as households, corporations and government in host (borrowing) countries. The main research method is a panel data regression model. The empirical results suggest that both local and global factors had influence on the changes in cross-border loans, i.e. helped to spread the 2007-09 crisis to CEE. The significant local factors were macroeconomic and financial characteristics of both source and host countries, such as their GDP growth differential, interest rate differential, FDI, or profitability and health of the banking sector. The significant global factors were the expected market volatility and investors' risk appetite/aversion which was an indicator of "pure" contagion. The main contribution of this thesis lies in its focus on CEE and the analysis of investors' behavior based on their changing risk appetite.
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Forecasting the Czech exchange rate : a VAR analysis
Průša, Pavel ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mertlík, Pavel (referee)
This thesis provides out-of-sample forecast of Czech Crown to Euro exchange rate using the vector autoregressive model. We select inflation, output, unemployment and interest rate as the fundamental economic variables interacting with the exchange rate in the ten-year period from 1999 through 2008. As our analysis concentrates on the short-term horizon, we measure the performance of our estimates for 2009 against the benchmark of the naive random walk approach. Surprisingly, for our data the VAR model outperforms the normally distributed white noise significantly. We conclude that the main reason is the systematic and steady appreciation of the Czech Crown during the observed period, which cannot be captured by random walk. This shows that econometric approximation of exchange rate fluctuations can be meaningful even in the short-term horizons.
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Endogeneity of credit or nominal rigidities?
Franče, Václav ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Lopušník, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis presents a theoretical model which tries to explain causes of business cycles fluctuations and which has its roots in the Post Keynesian stream of economic thought. According to this model, investment shocks together with endogeneity of money causes business cycles fluctuations. This model is compared with existing New Keynesian models which assert that causes of business cycles fluctuations are monetary policy shocks together with various nominal and real rigidities. Author uses econometric techniques (impulse-response functions and forecast error variance decomposition) to investigate which phenomenon contributes more to business cycles fluctuations. Unfortunately, results do not enable to draw a straightforward conclusion. It seems that both phenomena play a certain role.
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