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Recursive calculation of compound distributions
Sekera, Michal ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Pešta, Michal (referee)
The aim of this work is the calculation of compound distributions by using the algorithm known as the Panjer recursion. This algorithm is limited to dis- crete distributions and the (a, b, 0) and (a, b, 1) classes of distributions. The thesis shows which distributions are members of these classes. The thesis then descri- bes the discretization of continuous distributions by using the rounding method and the method of local moments matching; everything is explained on exam- ples. These methods are then applied to the calculation of the premium for mo- del of excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements (XL-reinsurance with re- instatements), and the calculating the solvency capital requirement. Numerical illustrations are included. 1
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Credibility models for claim frequency
Biolek, Jiří ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee)
The work deals with estimation of unknown risk parameters of a driver. Risk parameter indicates how many times more accidents we may expect from this driver compared with the average insurance group to which the driver is assigned according to the precarious classification. Risk parameter is a random variable, which is depending on the damage share of this driver. The second and third chapters describe the derivation of the estimates that minimize the quadratic and exponential loss function. It also compares the level of these estimates and the convergence rate. In chapter four there are several simulations performed and tables with estimates for any specific data created. 1
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Pricing in non-life insurance
Ondrušková, Markéta ; Mertl, Jakub (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to determine the premium of motor third party liability insurance. Thesis explores both direct approach to premium cal- culation and calculation using separately calculated claims frequency and claims severity. Emphasis is put on the use of generalized linear models whose theory is also present. Described approaches to calculation are applied on real world data, compared with each other and then final model for premium calculation is selec- ted. Premium is determined with the inclusion of IBNR reserves and expenses. Keywords: generalized linear model, claims frequency, claims severity, net pre- mium, gross premium, motor third party liability insurance, bonus-malus. 1
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Multivariate GARCH
Maďar, Milan ; Branda, Martin (referee) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
4 Title: Multivariate GARCH Author: Mgr. Milan Mad'ar Department: Katedra pravděpodobnosti a matematické statistiky Abstract: This thesis will examine the regional and global linkages as evi- dence the integrated markets consist of stock markets in Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Prague the U.S. Therefore we will utilize the multivariate GARCH approach that investigates into the dynamics of volatility transmission of related foreign exchange rates. Also, we will define three basic model classes. For each of the model classes a theoretical review, basic properties and estimation procedure with proofs are provided. We illustrate approach by applying the models to daily market data. Our two main aims are discussing and reporting the existence of regional and global stock markets linkages and provide a comparison of such mul- tivariate GARCH models on the data sample. We find out that the estimated time-varying conditional correlations indicate limited integration among the mar- kets which implies that investors can benefit from the risk reduction by investing in the different stock markets especially during the crisis. Keywords: multivariate GARCH, VECH, BEKK, O-GARCH, GO-GARCH, CCC, DCC
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Solvency Internal models
Mertl, Jakub ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee) ; Jedlička, Petr (referee)
Title: Solvency Internal models Author: Mgr. Ing. Jakub Mertl Abstract: The subject of thesis is assessment of calculation methods on capital adequacy of currently implemented regulation in insurance industry called Solvency II. The aim of the thesis is to build up a partial internal model fulfilling the condition of Solvency II. The thesis deals with the premium and reserve risks that are essential part of non-life business. Different approaches of risk assessment are described and aggregation of those risks as well. An important part of the thesis is a numerical example illustrating presented methods.
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Optimal pricing in nonlife insurace
Ďurošková, Zuzana ; Branda, Martin (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
V této práci se zabýváme základními principy tvorby sazeb neži- votního pojištění. Pracujeme s rizikově heterogenním portfóliem obsahující ur- čitý počet rizikových tříd. Cílem je najíst optimální sazbu pojistného pro kaž- dou třídu. K nalezení aplikujeme optimalizační modely a využíváme nelineárního programování. Formulujeme a řešíme optimalizační problém za jistých podmínek. Odvodíme jeho optimální řešení, z kterého vyjádříme a popíšeme r·zné principy pro výpočet pojistného pro každou třídu. Zavedeme taktéž duální optimalizační problém a ukážeme tvar jeho optimálního řešení. V numerické studii vypočítáme z odvozených metod sazby pojistného, kde pro jednotlivá rizika reprezentující úhrny škod, budeme volit konkrétní rozdělení. 1
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Excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements
Čápová, Petra ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis deals with the calculation of the premium for model of excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements (XL-reinsurance with reinstatements). In the first part except the description of the basic model, we devote to derivation of the formula for calculating the pure premium. Furthermore, we show the detailed calculation procedure of the pure premium including the derivation of the probability function for the composite distribution of the total reinsurer's participation in claims here. The thesis also describes the method of PH transformation, which is used to determine the risk adjusted premium. In the second part we show these procedures on concrete examples for various probability distributions of the amount of claims and the number of claims. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Dependence analysis of categorical data from banking
Khýr, Miroslav ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
Title: Dependence analysis of categorical data from banking Author: Miroslav Khýr Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Jitka Zichová, Dr., Department of Probability and Mathema- tical Statistics Abstract: The aim of this work is describing in detail the theory of the log - linear expansion and graphical models for random vectors with a discrete distribution. Such vector can be used for modeling categorical variables for example in a po- pulation of borrowers by a bank . We show how to estimate the probability of an individual category. We use a log - likelihood function. Independence graph can represent conditional independence of discretely distributed random variables. Using this theory, especially using deviance as test statistics, we can examine whether same data correspond to the selected graphical model. At the end of this work we apply the described theory to real data and determine the graphical mo- del best fitting the dependence structure in a database from banking. From this graph we can deduce which variables are dependent and which are independent. Keywords: Log - linear expansion, graphical model, log - likelihood function ,de- viance.
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Risk measures in finance and insurance
Krch, Ivan ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to examine risk measures which are used in finance and insurance. This work is focused on describing their mathematical characterizations and their relationships. In this thesis are discussed coherent risk measures, spectral risk mea- sures and distorted risk measures. Considerable attention is given to value at risk which is connected to a certain extent with all risk measures which are mentioned above. Attention is also aimed on using of these risk measures on illustrative examples which make their characteristic clear. Further there are demonstrated risk measures for quantification risk of portfolio based on real data. 1
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Multidimensional Credibility
Zhuravova, Nadezda ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Pešta, Michal (referee)
The aim of this graduation work is theoretically describe and also demonstrate the practical application of the theory of credibility in the multidimensional case. This theory is one of the most frequently used methods for calculating premiums, expected claims frequency or the expected average amount of damage. In this work we describe multidimensional Bühlmann-Straub credibility model and two- dimensional model with a known distribution. For each of these models we derive credibility estimate and examples of using these estimates in practice. Both models are compared on simulated data. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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