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National Repository of Grey Literature 1 records found  Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Transition to emission-free personal transportation in the Czech Republic
 Kessler, Daniel ; Ščasný, Milan (advisor) ; Kmeťková, Diana (referee)
What is the future of electric vehicles? Road transportation significantly con- tributes to undesired emissions which can cause health issues and environmen- tal damage. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles can be an adequate solution. This thesis aims to forecast the level of adoption of elec- tric passenger vehicles in the Czech Republic until 2050, using monthly vehicle registry data from 2009 to 2022. Using the Bass diffusion model, we estimate innovation and imitation parameters to forecast (the first) incremental and cu- mulative adoption of battery electric and, partly, of plug-in hybrid vehicles, until 2050. We rely on an exogenously pre-defined passenger vehicle fleet since the approach based on endogenously determined stock fails to provide a cred- ible forecast. Due to the low adoption rate of battery electric vehicles before 2016, we examine how using more recent data or calibration of the innovation parameter may improve the forecasting model. We also model the replacements of battery electric vehicles after their retirement to derive a total number of new registrations. Additional forecasts are performed for different fleet sizes and retirement ages. We have found that the calibration-based forecast pro- vides a larger share of battery electric vehicles until 2030...
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