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Methods of the exchange rate determination and the analysis of the MDL/USD currency pair
Panfile, Mariana ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to describe the basic theories of the exchange rate determination in the case of the MDL/USD currency pair. The first part of the thesis describes the exchange rate as one of the basic economic quantities, its importance in the current economic environment and the basic approaches to its determination. Next part is focused on the three fundamental models of prediction of the exchange rate: the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the international Fisher effect and the balance of payments theory. Application of the described models is included in the analytical part, where the theoretical evidence is verified upon the real economic data. The results of the empirical analysis and the possible reasons that limit holding of the characterized models in the real economic environment are discussed in the conclusion of the bachelor thesis.
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The theory of optimum currency areas and the entry of the Czech Republic into the EMU
Vála, Vladimír ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to determine, whether the Economic and Monetary Union fulfills criteria of optimum currency area, to evaluate the nominal and real convergence of the Czech Republic to EMU and to assess benefits and costs resulting from the implementation of common currency in the Czech Republic. I present basic criteria of optimum currency area and I try to find out whether they are met within the EMU. There are three economic criteria, three political criteria, the criteria of alignment of the business cycle, and also to mention Brown's tests and criteria of Václav Klaus. It also analyses whether the Czech Republic meets the Maastricht (nominal) convergence criteria and the extent to which is achieved real convergence. The benefits and costs associated with membership in the European Monetary Union for the Czech Republic are described in the conclusion.
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Náklady na vstup do EMU a případ Řecka
Trimmi, Argyro ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The introduction of euro in 2002 was considered to be a risky "experiment. Even before its actual existence, many economists have doubted the success of the Economic Monetary Union (EMU) emphasizing the potential costs of such a bold action. The traditional Optimum Currency Area by Mundell (1961), Mc Kinnon (1963) and Kenen (1969) has pointed out the loss of the exchange-rate mechanism and the structural differences among the member states as the main sources of costs within a monetary union. Ten years after the circulation of euro, the ongoing Greek debt crisis has revealed the imperfections of the EMU. Greece has become the "black sheep" of the union, having accumulated unsustainable levels of public debt and deficits that could pose a threat for the future of the Eurozone. It is widely believed that the profligate fiscal policies of the Greek government and the domestic flaws of the Greek economy have played an importan role on the country's debt crisis. However, the impact of Greece's accession to the EMU on the current crisis is still a moot question.
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Dealing with potential break up of Economic and Monetary Union
Shpitontsev, Leonid ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The main principle of the thesis is to address issues concerning structural problems of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and assess economical impact of its potential break up. This in turn implies the need to discuss certain issues. Firstly, since the EMU is based on the concept of Optimal Currency Area (OCA); I start my research with the test whether EMU in its current structure fits the definition of OCA. Secondly, I provide the extensive study on the reasons of current crisis in order to understand the root causes. Thirdly, I assess the potential implications of different ways out of the current sovereign debt crisis.
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Net inventory investment and its importance in business cycle
Kučera, Lukáš ; Mirvald, Michal (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
Cyclical component of aggregate net inventory investment in Czech republic between I.quarter 1996 and IV.quarter 2010 can be described by Production smoothing model, which says, that it is more advantageous for firms to absorb shocks of their product demand into inventories than to adjust their production permanently. This statement stands on a discovery, that cyclical component of net inventory investment is negativelly corralated with cyclical component of final sales and at the same time variability of cyclical component of final sales is higher than cyclical component of production (GDP). Although it is not possible to expect that every firm in the economy will behave according to this model, it seems, with respect to the analysis, that the cost of adjustment is one of the most important factors considered by firms within their optimalization problem.
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Using financial derivatives in government debt risk management
Kučera, Lukáš ; Blahová, Naděžda (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with possible usage of financial derivatives in context of government debt risk management, mainly in the Czech Republic. After the opening analysis of government debt development, the thesis describes risks, which are involved in government debt management. After that it handles with quantification of those risks and of their possible securing, especially with respect to financial derivatives usage. This thesis tries to answer the question, whether using financial derivatives in government debt management is reasonable. To solve this I used an analysis of 2010 data, in which I compare profitability of emission of classical bonds compared to emission of so called structured instruments, i.e. joint of classical bond and financial derivative. In conclusion of thesis there is usage of financial derivatives confronted with their negative characteristics as well as with cases of their abuse.
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The marketing analysis of guest loyalty program implementation at Grand Hotel Zvon
KUČERA, Lukáš
The diploma thesis is dealing with a topic of hospitality, a natural part of the services sector. Under the conditions of a constant development and ever-increasing competition there is necessary for hospitality industry enterprises to impress upon their customers their unique features and quality. Customers always seek a higher quality of services provided, individualization of services, logically they always look for the highest return of their investments. One of partial aims of this diploma thesis was an analysis of preferences of guests in a context of concept and implementation of a loyalty program. Other partial aim was to analyze indoor and outdoor attributes of the hotel. Marketing and management methods of SWOT analysis, questionnaire etc. have been used to achieve these aims. The main aim of this diploma thesis was to propose an optimal structure of the loyalty program for guests. The program must respect guests{\crq} wishes and needs while remaining financially acceptable for the hotel. A questionnaire has been used to detect the preferences of guests which then formed the basis of proposed loyalty program. Setting the conditions and principles of loyalty program membership was the next step to achieve the main aim. Finally, a detailed calculation of every item and benefit used in the loyalty program was created.
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The devolopment of the structure of foreign exchange market in the Czech Republic
Kučera, Lukáš ; Kuncl, Martin (advisor)
Foreign exchange market in the Czech Republic has not existed for a long time in the form as how we know it today. It started to develop after the fall of socialism and it had to catch up everything that the world foreign exchange market already have gone through. It was necessary to pass through several periods which were for developement very specific. The structure of the market was also changing, mainly the instruments. In the beginning there was interest only for spot operations, the more the market was developing it focused more on the term operations-derivatives. Today we meet transactions dealt mainly for speculation, hedging or just because of lack of likvidity of another currency. These transactions can be for example outright forward, FX swap, options or futures.
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