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Improving the forecasting ability as a means to improve institutional decision-making
Havlíčková, Viktorie ; Vranka, Marek (advisor) ; Dlouhá, Jana (referee)
The topic of the systematic improvement of decision-making that takes place in institutions is a relatively new area of psychological interest with a potentially large impact. One possible approach to address this issue is to improve the probability predictions made by decision-makers within institutions. Research shows that one way to do this is through training focused on improving judgment and reducing cognitive bias. This work tries to summarize the existing literature on the topic of forecasting, cognitive bias and their improvement. Part of the work is also the design of a research project, which aims to verify the effectiveness of training on the accuracy of individual predictions in the environment of real institutions.

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