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Creation of provisions - Pro-cyclical behavior of banks
Matějovská, Anna ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Gutiérrez Chvalkovská, Jana (referee)
In relation to the latest economic crisis much attention was paid to the bank capital requirements. Many papers discuss the pro-cyclical effect of these capital requirements and the options of how to stabilize the banking industry and financial system. In this thesis I researched another instrument which can cause the pro-cyclical effect - the loan loss provisions. In reaction to this issue the Spanish central bank has adopted the model of dynamic provisioning which acts counter-cyclically. This model is supposed to balance the amount of created provisions and banks' profit over the time. In this thesis I introduce a hypothetical situation in which the countries using the Euro currency adopted the model of dynamic provisioning and I examine the hypothesis that the adoption of this model would mitigate the latest economic crisis as the banks would achieve higher profits during the time of recession. Based on the conducted research I confirmed my hypothesis and conclude that the dynamic provisioning would balance the economic swings. However, the results also showed that the set-up of dynamic provisions model is crucial. In order to make the model efficient the model coefficients have to be precisely determined by central banks or individual banks and approved by independent supervisors. Keywords...
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Banking supervision and regulation: possible changes as a consequence of the global financial crisis
Mihok, Jaroslav ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
Banking supervision and regulation: Possible changes as a consequence of the global financial crisis Master Thesis Author: Bc. Jaroslav Mihok Supervisor: PhDr. Adam Geršl Ph.D. Academic Year: 2010/2011 Abstract The thesis is devoted to the analysis of recent global financial crisis and subsequent reform of the regulatory and supervisory framework. After the discussion of the causes of the crisis the proposed reforms are presented. The presentation of the reforms is divided into three parts. The first one consists of the global initiatives and general recommendations. Subsequent two parts focus on the specifics of the reforms in the United States of America and in the European Union. Afterwards the reforms are compared and subjected to the critical analysis. Key words: Dodd-Frank Act, De Larosière report, financial crisis, reform of the regulatory and supervisory framework
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An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity Situation and Interbank Rates in the Czech Republic during Global Crisis
Lešanovská, Jitka ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; von Terzi, Martina (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on the development of the interbank market liquidity and interest rates in the Czech interbank market with special focus on the period of global crisis. We analyze determinants of the interbank interest rates and their development with respect to the key monetary policy rate. We explain the significant departure of the interbank interest rates from the key monetary policy rate (impairment of monetary policy transmission) during the global crisis by an increase in risk premia on interbank lending. The source of the risk premia is decomposed into the individual components such as liquidity risk, counterparty risk, foreign influence and other factors. Their contribution to the overall risk premia over time during the global crisis is analyzed. We find that the liquidity risk was the key determinant of tensions in the Czech interbank market in the beginning of the global crisis. However, its influence weakened over time while the role of counterparty risk increased. Keywords: interbank market, liquidity, interest rates, crisis, risk premia, credit risk, liquidity risk, counterparty risk JEL classification: G190, G210
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From credit growth to credit crunch: Analysis of responses to credit development in Central and Eastern Europe
Jašová, Martina ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyzes policy measures taken to curb the private sector credit growth in the period 2003-08. The thesis evaluates the excessiveness of the credit development in the CEE with respect to macroeconomic fundamentals. Based on the results, menu of policy options to counter adverse effects of the credit boom is reviewed. The analysis is based on a survey performed on eleven central banks in the region. The findings reveal high intensity of policy intervention: altogether 82 measures were taken in CEE in the period. Deriving from the country experiences, the thesis argues that in order to eliminate adverse impacts, policy measures should include combination of monetary and prudential tools with special emphasis on domestic environment and role of foreign banks in the CEE region.
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Nonperforming Loans in China: Do We (Still) Need to Worry?
Sočuvková, Alžbeta ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Lopušník, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis overviews and discusses the issue of nonperforming loans in general and in China, and financial sector development from the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's reform era in 1978. The focus is put on the underlying institutional framework as it is found to be one of key contributing factors of NPLs in China. Utilizing a sample of 23 countries over the period 2000-2009, we estimate the impact of macroeconomic determinants on nonperforming loans. One of the regressors, output gap, is estimated via Kalman filtering technique based on the multivariate unobserved component (MUC) method. Consequently, out-of-sample method forecasts for five subgroups of countries, thus providing different benchmarks for China, are compared with official data. The conclusion argues the NPLs ratio to be understated in official statistics, especially towards the end of the series, which might be a sign of increasing macroeconomic instability in China.
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Linkages between financial sector and real output - empirical evidence from the Czech Republic
Tomis, Martin ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis studies various ways in which the financial sector may affect the real economy. Particular attention is devoted to the bank lending channel of monetary transmission which amplifies monetary policy through changes in the supply of bank loans. We analyze the theoretical foundations of this channel, review international empirical literature and identify characteristic features of Czech financial system. Due to the important role of bank loans in the Czech Republic and the limited availability of alternative sources of finance, we hypothesize that the channel should be operative in the Czech Republic. Using a VEC model we analyze aggregate data for 2001-2011. Impulse response functions are then used to identify responses of the lending rate and the amount of loans to a monetary shock. Based on these responses we conclude the bank lending channel was operative.
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Central bank communication on financial stability
Vaško, Dan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This research analyses central bank communication on financial stability. First, most important international comparable features of the communication are identified, such as Financial Stability Reports, Stress tests, Financial soundness indicators, etc. These are then used for the construction of Financial stability transparency index (FST index) for 110 countries from 2000 to 2011. FST index is used to determine the most important drivers of central bank communication. In particular, the level of transparency towards financial stability depends most on monetary policy transparency, size and development of the economy. Finally, the impact of financial stability transparency on financial stability is under investigation. Using two proxies for financial stress, for the first time, evidence of the influence of central bank communication on financial soundness was found. It is concluded that the communication still has not reached its steady state and markets have only limited experience using it. However, the communication has a strong potential to influence financial stability in the future.
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Central Bank Independence - Theory and Case of Czech and Slovak National Bank
Ulahel, Jakub ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Melikhova, Oksana (referee)
The topic of this thesis is the central bank independence. It is divided in two parts. The first part is devoted to theoretical concepts that are they key instruments in discussion about an independent monetary authority. Next chapters introduce several possibilities how to measure central bank independence from purely legal indices to indicators capturing the behavioral aspects of central banking. The second part deals with application of previously acquired knowledge to the analysis of current status of the Czech National Bank and the National Bank of Slovakia. The methodological approach of this thesis balances on the borderlines of political economy, institutional economics, purely abstract monetary policy and law.
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Impact of the Global Crisis on Banking Sector Soundness: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
Zsigraiová, Monika ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Kudrna, Zdeněk (referee)
The theses assesses the influence of the Crisis on the soundness of banking sector in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The analysis using bank-specific and country-specific data employs the descriptive and econometric tools. Especially, the fixed-effects method helps to reveal an impact of the Crisis on gross loans, liquid assets, non-performing loans, return on average asset and capital adequacy ratio. The results suggest that the crisis affected negatively the bank soundness of each discussed country, specifically the macroeconomic transmission channel was proven to be significant in all studied countries. The funding transmission channel was significant only in case of Poland.
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Privatization through FDI in the Czech Republic: Effects of Privatization Properties on the Companies' Performances
Nachtigall, Jakub ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Kolouchová, Petra (referee)
This thesis is focused on the large scale privatization in the Czech Republic. It brings the real values of investment into the discussion of direct effects of FDI. A unique dataset obtained in the archive of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic allows us to employ other interesting properties of the privatization in the comparison of the performance of the FDI recipients during the 1997- 98 crisis. A synthetic method approach is used to estimate the most similar competitor of each FDI recipient and control for different situations the MNE affiliates were prior the crisis. The thesis has also a historical contribution as it discusses some yet unknown features of the privatization through FDI during the large scale privatization. Further, the underlying theory of FDI, FDI flows into the Czech Republic, the Czech privatization process and macroeconomic background are described. JEL Classification D24, F21, F23, P31 Keywords Czech Republic, Foreign Direct Investment, Pri- vatization, Total Factor Productivity, Transi- tions of Socialist Enterprises Author's e-mail jakub.nachtigall@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail adam.gersl@cnb.cz
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