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The Geography of the populist vote in Slovakia
Dusková, Natália ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (advisor) ; Gregor, Martin (referee)
The success of populist political parties depends on a complex system of fac- tors that influence the voters. Researchers connect the phenomenon to several socio-demographic characteristics such as age, income, or education. It is in- sufficient to only study individuals and predict their decisions based on the metrics we know about them and the place they live in. It is also beneficial to examine the regions' influence on each other. This is why we turn not only to OLS, but also to multiple spatial models with various demographic and eco- nomic variables at the county and municipality levels to explain support for populist parties in Slovakia. Data from the two most recent parliamentary elections, in years 2016 and 2020, are analyzed and we zoom on local election results of two Slovak populist parties: SMER and ĽSNS. Analysis results point towards existence of significant spillover effects among Slovak regions - directly in support for both parties, as well as coming from observed and unobserved vote share determinants. Keywords populism, populist political parties, spatial anal- ysis, spatial models, vote share, Slovakia Title The geography of the populist vote in Slovakia Author's e-mail nataliaduskova@hotmail.com Supervisor's e-mail barbara.pertold-gebicka@fsv.cuni.cz
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Do less developed regions vote populistic parties? The case of Slovakia
Dusková, Natália ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (advisor) ; Kotrč, Michal (referee)
Populism has been a widespread issue since the 20th century. Scientific work that has dealt with this political approach in the past is concentrated mainly on influential countries, whereas smaller countries do not receive much atten- tion. Therefore, we investigate the two Slovak latest parliamentary elections taking place in 2016 and 2020 using the data on the county level. As far as one of the Slovak problems are regional disparities, this paper aims to find the key characteristics of the counties that influence the support of populist parties voting. In the first place, we introduce the OLS estimation with the heteroskedasticity standard errors, given that heteroskedasticity is detected in most of our models by the Breusch-Pagan test. We find out a positive effect of unemployment and religious people on voting for populist parties. On the contrary, skilled workers and Hungarians minorities are opposed to voting for such parties. Furthermore, we merge the dataset to create two-period panel data and apply pooled analysis and first-differencing to examine the changes overthe years. However,wedonotrevealanysignificant changes between2016 and 2020. Keywords populism, populist political parties, vote share, voting behaviour, Slovakia, ordinary least squares method, pooled analysis, first-...
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