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Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market
Vařenka, Jiří ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
The main goal of this bachelor thesis is to characterize technical analysis as a method of foreign exchange rate prediction and its possible ways of use. The first chapter focuses on the foreign exchange market characteristics, the FX market participants and retail trading conditions. The second chapter explains different types of data presentations as well as basic support and resistance approach and brings detailed classification features of indicators, which are commonly used in technical analysis by both dealers and retail traders. The technical analysis is then confronted with the efficient market theory. In the empirical part we test one simple moving average-based trading strategy in 4 modifications.
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Benefits and costs of common European currency adoption in small open economy (on the example of chosen country)
Bábek, Jiří ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Doležal, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyze and assess the benefits and cosi resulting from the implementation of common currency in a small open economy in specific cases in chosen countries. The theoretical part is devoted to the monetary integration itself, its historical development in Europe anf the theory of optimum currency area. Attention will be focused also on the entry criteria of monetary union and the specifics of small open economies within the frame of monetary union. The analytical part evaluates and compares the readiness of chosen economies. Subsequently, the thesis deals with benefits and costs of monetary integration and their significance in a particular situation on the example of chosen countries. Individual benefits and costs will also be put into context with the crisis of monetary union. The results are discussed in conclusion.
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Mutual relations of balance of payments, exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves
Zelba, Michal ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This work assesses influence of balance of payments on exchange rate movement, whether nominal or real, and feed back. First part defines balance of payments and content of its items. Further, main theories of exchange rate movements are presented. In the ensuing empirical section economies of similiar type are compared, firstly two large, rather open economies of USA and United Kingdom. The next comparation analyzes differences between two small, rather open economies, and that is Czech republic and Switzerland.
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Bilateral relations between interest rates and exchange rates (in selected countries)
Kočí, Tomáš ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Kunz, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis deals with the relation between interest differential and exchange rate. First part is about the exchange rate system explanation and about explanation of theoretical background of relation between interest rate and exchange rate (i. e. Asset Market Model, Interest Rate Parity, etc.). The goal of second part is to verify theoretical assumptions on empirical data. There is a sample of ten European countries which is used for applying of graphical analysis, regression analysis and VAR model analysis.
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Monetary policy of NBS and convergence to EMU
Čačková, Anna ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; KUNZ, Tomáš (referee)
Diploma thesis is entitled Monetary policy of NBS and convergence to EMU. Introductory theoretical section describes the development of monetary unions in the past and the causes of their extinction. Subsequently, it is devoted to the foundation of the European Monetary Union in various stages, of its crisis and transition to the ERM II exchange rate system. It characterizes the nominal Maastricht criteria in theory. Following chapters constitute the practical part of the thesis. Chapters 2-4 discuss the monetary policy of the NBS and its roles and objectives. They outline monetary policy of NBS in the individual periods followed by an evaluation of measures and compliance with the main objectives, such as exchange rate stability, inflation targeting and inflation targeting in ERM II. The last chapter discusses the costs and benefits of euro, their comparison and evaluation of the appropriateness of the timing of entry into EMU. Real convergence is emphasised and represented by GDP per capita, the adjustment of price levels, employment and foreign trade. Nominal convergence is represented by Maastricht convergence criteria and their implementation. The development of various criteria is compared with the countries of V4 -- Czech republic, Poland and Hungary. Finally it summarises the overall functioning of the National Bank in the field of monetary policy, the appreciation of the euro advantages and appropriateness of the timing.
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Monetary Policy of the Hungarian National Bank and the Possibility of Adoption Euro in Hungary
Londýn, Radek ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Hejduk, Petr (referee)
Whatever country gives up its currency and adopts the currency of the common union, has to count on some impacts. The country loses its exchange rate convergential channel and the convergency is running throught the inflation. The level of the inflation pain depends on the difference in the economic level between those two areas, i.e. Hungary and the European Union. If Hungary adopts euro, it would lead to high inflation and numerous shocks due to Hungarian low level of convergency and different monetary policy transmission mechanism. Hungary has no chance to avoid adoption of euro in the log run, but if it keeps forint for at least a few years, Hungary can expect a tolerable inflation, more natural convergential process and the possibility to use its own monetary policy, which in Hungary is based right on the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission.
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Reciprocal corelations of interest rates and exchange rate described in the example of selected countries
Mihalik, Miroslav ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
This final work is aimed at the concept of relationship between exchange rate and interest rate differential. The introductory part briefly describes exchange rate as a macro-economical parameter, which can be seen in many different systems of exchange rate. Next part consists of theoretical principles of uncovered interest parity and the dynamics of this process and also the process of international Fisher effect. In the analysis part the relation between interest rate and exchange rate is explored in various conditions of exchange rate arrangements in the countries of Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Slovakia. The uncovered interest parity is valued by graphic analysis made by calculation of the theoretical rate based on uncovered interest parity and the off-set index rate. International Fisher effect is tested on the graph of change in exchange rate depending on the interest rate differential. The graphic analysis is followed by the analysis of linear regression. Afterwards with the use of VAR model we find not only the dependence of exchange rate on interest rate differential but also whether the interest rate differential is dependent on exchange rate or not.
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Inflation Targeting in The Czech Republic: History and Current Situation Under The Circumstances of The Economic Crisis
Kolesár, Michal ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Tomšík, Vladimír (referee)
Diploma thesis analyzes the inflation targeting regime. The theoretical part describes the basic mechanism of the regime, which consists of setting the inflation targets and the exceptions when the inflation rate may deviate from the targeted zone. Further part describes production of conditional and unconditional forecasts and operational steering of central bank interest rates. In the theoretical part are also summarized the advantages and disadvantages of the regime. The empirical part of this thesis consists in application of the theoretical findings to the practical experiences of CNB. It describes the process of setting the inflation targets and forecasting procedure of CNB. Final part of the thesis summarizes the successes and failures of practical application of the regime in the Czech Republic.
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The World Bank - beginning, organization and critique
Doležal, Jiří ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Papoušková, Radka (referee)
This thesis is focused on The World Bank, it's beginning, organisation and analysis of critique. This thesis begins with reasons for foundation, historical aspects and problems. This involved the world stage before Second World War and the beginning of the IBRD. The thesis continues with a frame look at the organization, projects, finance and the World Bank position. The study shows the righteousnees of critique, analyse it and interpret it. The remainder of the thesis is concerned about the decision power in the bank and it's consequences.
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