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Equlibrium exchange rate : Effect of the degree of competition on the real equlibrium exchange rate - evidence from a panel of exporting companies
Raková, Marie ; Derviz, Alexis (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the real equilibrium exchange rate. It consists of two parts. The purpose of the first part is to introduce the main equilibrium exchange rate theories and their empirical results. This part also focuses on the present empirical approaches, which are used by economists for testing the equilibrium exchange rate. The aim of the second part is to analyze the impact of market structure, expressed in degree of competition, on the equilibrium real exchange rate. Here we examine the following questions: What are the causes of misalignment of the real exchange rate? Does it depend on the market structure? And could, under certain degree of competition, be every move of nominal exchange rate assessed as equilibrium? Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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On the nature of the divergent economic outcomes during the post-Socialist transition
Skorokhodova, Irina ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Sojka, Milan (referee)
The focus of this thesis is to introduce the reader with the recent developments in the countries in transition from the centrally-planned economy towards a "healthy" democratic system with free market relations. The main aim is to analyze the divergence of paths the countries have experienced in the course of transition, particularly, the rapid recession and a following recovery, since it is critical for any country already experiencing the transition (from any system "A" towards any system "B") or just preparing itself for the process. The comparative analysis in the form of case-by-case and point-by-point methods dominates in the research. The work tries to answer two basic questions: "Why had the post-Socialist countries in transition face a serious output decrease and, generally, an economic recession?" and "Why the developments were divergent throughout the region?" The existence of output recession is proved with the help of several economic indicators, such as evolution of GDP, inflation rate, registered unemployment rate, Human Development Index, composition of GDP by sector, but also G1NI coefficient and poverty ratio, etc. Initial conditions index, Transition progress indicator, Liberalization index, Index of institutional quality, etc. support the second part of the thesis. In search for reasons...
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From Lira to the Single Currency: the Euro's transitional costs and its unexpected side effects. The Italian case.
Dragonetti, Massimiliano ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Sojka, Milan (referee)
T hroughout this thesis I tried to show the numerous aspects of the introduction of the single currency and its impact on Italian society. We started by considering the pre-changeover phase, pointing out the genuine enthusiasm and trust in future perspectives of the Euro as an innovative tool able to contribute in building a more and more unified Europe, that was pretty widespread among Italians. Unfortunately, after this initial positive attitude, the successive four years have been characterized by an increasing mistrust and discomfort. This happened because of the combination of several relevant factors: psychological, political and partially also economic. We analyzed that the Italian population has faced an unexpected amount of psychological difficulties in dealing with the single currency; to clarify the wide range of different attitudes it has been useful approaching this theme following various levels of analysis, as shown in the first three chapters. The considerations built up on these areas of interest have been developed according to my personal re-elaboration of information and data collected by the official survey department of the European Commission, and the so- called Euro Barometer, that during the last four years has carried out a remarkable monitoring work to studying and understanding...
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Human capital and the transition in Serbia : accumulation, allocation and implications for development
Cerović, Irena ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
Developed industrial economies have faced challenging transformations over the past decade, stemming from the increased global interdependence of economic systems and greater reliance on rapidly changing technology. Along with the reassessment of the bases of modern society came the realization that human knowledge and ability to learn have become a key asset for development and growth. As developed economies reform to adapt to this new reality, they are joined by post-communist countries facing added challenges of political and economic adjustments. This study looks at the paths open to the country that was among the last to enter this process in Europe. Serbia's current situation with respect to human capital is assessed and examined in light of the global processes taking place around it, and its unique challenges are presented. The conceptual approach of the study involves looking at Serbia's human resources in terms of their quality, quantity, and distribution between sectors of differing productivity. This is done through a survey of educational reforms, skilled emigration, and forces determining the allocation of human capital. The study shows that there is a need to adopt an integrated strategic vision of human development as a vital component for the success of the transition. It presents this goal...
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The Macro-finance Model of the Czech Economy
Urbánková, Jana ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis introduces the macro-finance model of the Czecheconomy by setting the VAR model, which includes components representing theyield curve estimatedwithin theNelson-Siegel framework. The thesis contributes to the current streamof researchby including both the policy interest rateand the interbank interest rateas endogeneous variables in the VAR model, which allows for differentiation between monetarypolicy shocks and shocks to interbank rates. The above-mentioned model then serves as a frameworkfor analyzing interactions betweenfinancial and macroeconomicvariables in the period from 2000 to 2015. The thesis pays special attention to theperiod 2008-2013 and shows that the introduction of the FX commitment in November 2013 had a significant positive effect on GDP and inflation within 12 months after the introduction of the FX commitment. The thesis concludes that exchangeratemovements affectedalmost uniformly short-term and long-terminterest rates, and thus the yield curve slope stayed largelyunaffected by exchangeratemovements.
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The Impact of Migration on Economic Growth
Jančíková, Denisa ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
Human migration, the movement of people from one place to another with intention of settling there temporarily or permanently, is an integral part of development of human society. The beginning of the Industrial Revolution in late 18th century has resulted in economic growth and improvement of living standards. Countries, in which was industrialisation most intense attracted most immigrants. Second wave of migration was in second half of 20th century caused by development of communication technologies, which gave opportunities to less developed countries improve their economic development. This diploma thesis is aimed exactly on this period. Its goal is to research the impact of migration on economic growth and find out if the flow of migrants is beneficial for the economy or the exact opposite. The impact is examined by regression analysis on panel data for almost 200 hundred countries from whole world for time period 1955-2004.
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Odhad zajišťovacího poměru (Hedge Ratio) v řízení zásob
Máková, Barbora ; Černý, Michal (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
Companies dependent on commodities for their production have to deal with volatile commodity prices and should employ measures for risk reduction as unfavourable spot price development may cause significant losses. A useful tool for diminishing the risk is hedging on futures market; however, this approach faces a crucial question of optimal hedge ratio determination (ratio between spot and futures units). Our thesis examines nine different ways of optimal hedge ratio estimation (naive, Sharpe, mean extended Gini coefficient, generalized semivariance, value at risk, and minimum variance through OLS, error correction, GARCH, and bivariate GARCH models) and evaluates their efficiency using the data on eight different commodities. The results differ across the respective commodities and cannot be generalized. Two conclusions resulting from the analysis refer to performance of naive and OLS hedge ratios and constant vs time varying hedge ratios. We find that complex hedge ratios, such as bivariate GARCH or VaR hedge ratios, do not outperform naive and OLS hedge ratios and that the results of constant hedge ratios are mostly as good as results of time-varying hedge ratios.
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Econometric Analysis of Microeconomic Processes. Application on Wages in the Czech Republic
Kalčevová, Jana ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Arlt, Josef (referee) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis is focused on wages models on the czech labor market in 1996 and 2002. Wages models are built on non-trivial mathematical background and parameters of given models are estimated by methods based on sum of squared residuals and also not often used quantile regression. The quantile regression theory is described in the thesis together with test statistics. Properties of estimations, demonstration examples and proposal of practical application are also indroduced. The theory was applied to two large-size data-files, recieved results show the difference between years 1996 and 2002; a comparison with European Union countries is also given.
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Data Envelopment Analysis – extension and application in automotive industry
Synková, Rut ; Jablonský, Josef (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee) ; Ivaničová, Zlatica (referee)
The Models of the Data Envelopment Analysis are the instruments for benchmarking of homogenous production units. The first models had been formulated by the end of 70th in the last century and since then have been the subject of interest in the theoretical area as well as in the analytical area. The thesis refers to the models of the Data Envelopment Analysis and its development in the theoretical area. The second goal of the thesis is an application of models of the Data Envelopment Analysis in industrial environment and illustration of its possible use by investment decision. The domestic literature on the area of the Data Envelopment Analysis has not been sufficient. The thesis is therefore mapping the present stage of knowledge in this area and further widens by the Allocation Models, Dynamic Analysis and the questions of non-controlled and imprecise variables. Models, which are formulated in the thesis, where afterwards applied on the data of the foreign companies. The numerical experiments were worked out by the software support for the models of the Data Envelopment Analysis, built in the environment of MS Excel. The main contributions of the thesis are in enlargement of the Dynamic Analysis by the partial continuous dynamic analysis and analysis of Efficiency Stability of the evaluated units. The other contribution is the wide application of the models of the Data Envelopment Analysis for benchmarking the companies, which mainly produce the motor vehicles. The thesis gives the overview of the often used models of the Data Envelopment Analysis as well as of the rarely used models. It discusses the possible solution to the special situations which may occur during the application. The thesis is divided into six chapters which, in typical case, contain next to the theory the illustrative application. The first chapter comprises of the subscription of the basic models of the Data Envelopment Analysis. In the second chapter, there are presented the Super-Efficiency Models and discussed the problems with zero inputs and outputs in these models. The overview of the Allocation Models is in following part. The Dynamic Analysis and analysis of Efficiency Stability are subjects of the fourth chapter. The fifth chapter is dedicated to non-controlled and imprecise variables. The last chapter focuses on application of the models in automotive industry and its possible use of results for estimated development of the evaluated units on Investment markets.
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Multiple Marginalization and its Impact on Supply Chains' Efficiency
Zouhar, Jan ; Fiala, Petr (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee) ; Ivaničová, Zlatica (referee)
Double (or multiple) marginalization is often identified as the main source of a decentralized supply chain's (SC's) inefficiency. In its core lies the fact that if the agents constituting the SC choose their output prices according to the golden rule of profit maximization (that normally applies to a single firm that produces independently and sells directly to the end consumer), the prices in the SC tend to spiral up to an inefficient (equilibrium) level where both the consumer surplus and the SC's total profit are diminished. The aim of this paper is to analyze and quantify the impact of multiple marginalization on the behaviour of SC's that vary with respect to their structure (i.e. the number of agents and the links between them) and the shape of their cost and demand functions. The main gauge of this impact is the efficiency of a SC, defined as the ratio of the profit of a SC whose agents behave according to the model of multiple marginalization, and the potential profit of the SC (i.e. the maximum profit attainable under the conditions of complete coordination of prices within the chain). Besides efficiency, some other properties of a SC are studied, e.g. the distribution of the SC's profit among the individual agents or cost externalities within the SC. Three different models of multiple marginalization are studied in the paper. The first one is a linear model of multiple marginalization (i.e. a model with linear demand and cost functions); in this simplified setting we derived explicit formulae for values of the studied indicators. The second model is analogous to the first one only that it allows for non-linear demand and cost functions; in this case, the analysis is carried out using computer experiments with numeric algorithms. The last one is a dynamic model of multiple marginalization which studies the abovementioned price spiral through multi-agent simulation.
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