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The analysis of the U.S. external economic balance.
Ambartsumyan, Artur ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Gevorgyan, Kristine (referee)
The theme of this Bachelor thesis is an analysis of the U.S. external economic balance. The first part deals with characteristic of external economic balance and balance of payments. In the next part there are named basic elements of the balance of payments and their reporting ability. At the end of the first part is defined the foreign investment position and are given important indicators for evaluating the sustainability of the external balance. In the second part the attention is paid to the analysis of the balance of payments, international investment position and U.S. external debt. The aim of this work is to determine the shape of the U.S. external economic balance.
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Post China 16: Konkurence pro čínský export
Lang, Vladimír ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis examines the evolution of China's economy and the competitive position of its exports in the international market. The thesis explores whether China is losing its competitive edge in export to the group of developing countries called Post China 16. First chapter identifies macroeconomic variables that significantly influence exports of a specific economy. Second chapter discusses the development of selected economic variables in Post China 16 economies. It studies whether the development of selected variables reveals possible changes in the competitive position of China and selected developing countries. Final part of the thesis develops an econometric model that tests the influence of selected variables on development of exports across several industries of The Post China 16 economies. Results confirm that most of the variables influence exports as the theory predicts and that the influence is higher in some industries than others. However, the model has limitations due to the shortcomings of the data.
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Quantitative easing in Japan
Pavlíček, Adam ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Titze, Miroslav (referee)
The diploma thesis focuses on quantitative easing in Japanese economy. In the first part the problematic is set into a theoretical frame and then is connected with the development of the modern Japanese economy. The thesis describes the progress of the both waves of quantitative easing which have been implemented so far as well as the circumstances of their start and their so far known impacts. The application part presents an evaluation of the impacts of the current wave of quantitative easing. The evaluation is based on the impulse-response analysis.
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Foreign currency loans in Hungary as a special case of carry trade
Mikoláš, Martin ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The thesis examines foreign currency (FX) loans in Hungary and tries to compare them to leverage investment strategy known as carry trade. FX loans in Hungary after 2003 enjoyed great development, but only until the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, which fully revealed the negatives associated with this type of financing, which resulted in a threat to the stability of the whole financial sector in the country. This thesis describes the situation in Hungary and examines the consequences connected with mass development of FX loans. There is an analysis of the currency crisis in 2008 as a part of the thesis. At the same time, the thesis aims to analyze the causes that were behind the unusually rapid growth of FX loans. The factors are divided on the demand and supply motivated factors.
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Finanční Analýza a Ohodnocení Společnosti Lufthansa
Hamacek, Michaela Maria ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Pour, Jiří (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to provide investors and other stakeholders with an approach how to calculate the fair value of a company and its stocks to make an investment decision. As stock market prices are influenced by many events, they rarely reflect the true underlying value of the company. The company investigated in this thesis is the German airline company Lufthansa. A strategic, a financial and a ratio analysis are performed before the fair value is assessed using the discounted cash flow method under three future scenarios. The analyses revealed a possible undervaluation of the company, which led to a buy recommendation for shares of Lufthansa.
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Unconventional monetary policy after the collapse of Lehman Brothers
Dragoun, Josef ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Dvořák, Michal (referee)
This diploma thesis is focused on unconventional monetary policy tools that individual central banks introduced into practise as a response to the global financial crisis. It is about quantitative easing policy, foreign exchange interventions with exchange rate commitment and negative interest rates. This thesis also deals with classical tools of monetary policy such as open market operations, discount tools, minimum requirement reserve or foreign exchange interventions. The aim of the thesis is to document the development of central banks policy and then to examine relationship of selected assets in comparison with balance sheet of Federal reserve systems with help of correlation coefficient. The thesis also deals with the thought how should behave in the zero lower bound environment and what are the pitfalls of unconventional monetary policy.
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Construction of automated trading strategies based on market statistics.
Šuffner, Otakar ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Skoupil, Lubomír (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the construction of automated trading strategies, which are built on the basis of market statistics. In the first part are shortly introduced the basic parameters of the E-mini S&P 500. In this chapter is also a detailed description of the process of creating a market statistics. In the second part is described a process of building a number of automated trading strategies. Optimization of these strategies is conducted on historical data. In the second part of this thesis is also shown a discretionary trading system based on market statistics. In order to demonstrate the robustness of automated trading strategies, they are tested on a sample of data outside of the optimization period. The result of the diploma thesis will be an evaluation of the trades and evaluation of the robustness of automated trading strategies.
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Accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in selected Asian economies
Trulik, Jiří ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Pour, Jiří (referee)
This thesis focuses on the analysis and description of the causes of trends in the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in three selected Asian economies, China, Singapore and Hong Kong. In the analysis are examined selected factors whose relationship with the foreign reserves, based on their merits and in the work of this association subsequently investigated on empirical data, mainly from the balance of payments and the statement of net investment position to identify and specify the main causes of accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in individual economies. The general framework of work consists of the theories of international movement of capital, specifically called Lucas's paradox, whose presence adds insight about other possible causes of some capital flows.
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Exchange rate as an unconventional tool of monetary expansion on the example of The Czech Republic
Purnochová, Barbora ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
Recent crisis and economic recession caused in many countries problems with drop in inflation and overall downturn in economic growth. The Central Banks found themselves in so called zero lower bound. This thesis describes the situation of deflation, zero lower bound and liquidity trap. These conditions called for the use of alternative monetary policy tools. The main goal of the thesis is to evaluate the use of foreign exchange rate intervention as unconventional tool in a small open economy with inflation targeting regime represented by the Czech Republic in the analytic part. Thesis examines other non-standard instruments and provides reasons for the Czech National Bank decision. The analysis shows the complexity of the issue and provides the evidence that exchange rate commitment was not displayed to the desired price level. The tool could lead to expected repercussion, but the effect is impacted by factors, which Central Bank cannot control. The effect of the CB way to fight the decreasing inflation will be better shown after the CB exit from the commitment.
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Foreign exchange risk and its management methods in PEGAS NONWOWENS
Nikodem, David ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Pour, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to introduce the reader to the theory of foreign exchange risk, its measurement and finally its management methods, using the example company of PEGAS NONWOWENS. Foreign exchange risk is a serious issue in this day and age, that is concerning every company, directly or indirectly active in international trade. The first part is going to introduce the terms of foreign exchange risk, exposure and position. The second part covers various foreign exchange risk measurement options. The main part of the theoretical section of the thesis deals with the most commonly used methods of foreign exchange risk management. The last and most important part of the thesis uses the theoretical basis established in the first three chapters to analyze the methods of foreign exchange risk management used by a real world company PEGAS NONWOWENS.
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