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The Effects of Electronic Records of Sales: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis
Besedová, Monika ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the electronic records of sales (ERS) implemented on December 1, 2016, in the Czech Republic. The ERS orders given entrepreneurs to use special cash boxes and to send data about single sales to the Financial Authority immediately after each transaction. Experience shows that the ERS reduced tax evasion and the shadow economy. This thesis fills a gap in literature as no study has yet examined the impact of ERS on macroeconomic variables - gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, unemployment rate and harmonized consumer price index (HCPI). To analyze it, I apply SCM by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Abadie et al. (2010) and Abadie et al. (2015) that proposes the way how to evaluate the impact of political interventions using a quantitative approach. Using data from the Eurostat and OECD databases from Q1 2004-Q3 2019, the method allows me to construct a counterfactual outcome for GDP per capita, unemployment rate and HCPI in the absence of the implementation of the ERS. I also apply the extension of original SCM - generalize synthetic control method by Xu (2017) and augmented synthetic control method by Ben-Michael et al. (2018) as robustness checks. Moreover, the interference procedures include the modified confidence interval by Firpo and Possebom...
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Impact of pardon in 2013 on the crime rate in Czech Republic
Besedová, Monika ; Korbel, Václav (advisor) ; Matoušek, Jindřich (referee)
This thesis studies the impact of Václav Klaus's 2013 pardon on crime in the Czech Republic. The analysis is based on examining a one-time exogenous shock in data on crime and incarceration from 2010 to 2015. The main instruments of the analysis are the elasticity of crime with respect to imprisonment and the incapacitation effect, which is determined in both static and dynamic ways. This helps inspect a progress of relationship between crime and incarceration rate in a longer period after declaration of the pardon. The incapacitation effect, which is the number of criminal offences not committed in one year due to one person being incarcerated, was lower immediately after the pardon, but it sharply increased in the course of six months after the pardon. Nevertheless, it started to decrease afterwards. The hypothesis about increase of crime was confirmed as well. Especially the number of thefts, burglaries and violent crimes rose in the period after the pardon. The pardon caused an increase in crime. In the view of this fact more people are incarcerated in Czech prisons and the incarceration and crime rate started to return to the level before the pardon in a few months. 1
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