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	Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries Šmídková, Kateřina ; Barrell, Ray ; Holland, Dawn The work employs the concept of the fundamental real exchange rate (FRER), taking into account the specific features of countries in the advanced stage of transition. The FRER model approximates the integration gain with the impact of foreign direct investment on trade and allows for larger current account deficits if external debt is below a safety limit. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes Hlušek, Martin The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Monetary policy and the term spread in a macro model of a small open economy Kotlán, Viktor This paper argues that shortcomings of the single-equation approach may produce results that are biased, and that the predictive ability must be analyzed from within a model framework. It has elected to use a simple macroeconomic model of a small open economy and examine the predictive properties of the term spread from within its framework. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Robust Bayes-type version of classical estimators Hanousek, Jan ; Lachout, Petr Detailed record
	Přeshraniční úvěrová nákaza v nadnárodních bankách Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, J. Lending contagion in multinational banks is studied theoretically and empirically. In the proposed model, contagion arises due to shareholder-manager delegation and precautionary motives. Empirically, more than one half of the multinational banks in our representative sample show signs of lending contagion. Detailed record

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