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Evaluating drought risk for permanent grasslands under present and future climate conditions
Trnka, Miroslav ; Schaumberger, A. ; Formayer, H. ; Eitzinger, Josef ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Možný, M. ; Thaler, S. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Over the past years, the changing climate has affected parts of Czech Republic and Austria by drought spells of the intensity and extend that was unprecedented in previous decades. These events had a significant impact on agricultural areas, especially on the grasslands. The idea behind the GIS monitoring relies on hypothesis that the effect of weather and climate conditions on the grassland production can be estimated by models that describe certain natural processes in a simplified manner and in spatialized form.
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System for monitoring and forecast of impacts of agricultural drought
Trnka, Miroslav ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Chuchma, F. ; Možný, M. ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Meitner, Jan ; Bláhová, M. ; Fiala, R. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict soil moisture and drought intensity, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict soil moisture values over a period of up to 9 days is presented through using ensemble of models for numerical weather forecasts. This method brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts during drought events by farmers using such forecasting tools. With regard to the relatively high predictability of soil moisture and drought intensity, the methodology introduces the basic procedures and provides necessary information for the users. In this methodology, the results of 2017 drought event are presented as an example. The drought forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.intersucho.cz.
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Application of multispectral remote sensing indices for sensing indices for estimating crop yields at field level
Jurečka, František ; Lukas, Vojtěch ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Fischer, Milan ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Trnka, Miroslav
Remote sensing can be used for yield estimation prior to harvest and can replace or complement classical\nways of estimating crop yields. This study was undertaken in Polkovice, located in the Czech Republic’s\nHaná region. For 2015 and 2016, two data sets of satellite imagery were used: the Moderate Resolution\nImaging Spectroradiometer and the Landsat 8. Vegetation indices from satellites were compared with crop\nyields at the level of land blocks. Winter wheat and spring barley yield data, representing crops planted\nover the analysed period, were used for the comparison. The results of the index–yield comparison showed\nthat vegetation indices from remote sensing data provide reliable information for yield estimation prior to\nharvest. Indices are also able to evaluate the spatial variability of a crop within the field. The results showed\nthat remote sensing data need to have detailed spatial resolution in order to provide reasonable information\nabout yield at such a detailed level.
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Monitoring of water use, druought and yield impacts of winter wheat using imaginery from satellites
Jurečka, František ; Anderson, M. ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Hain, C. ; Gao, F. ; Yang, Y. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Remote sensing can be very useful tool for drought monitoring, providing valuable information about yield-limiting moisture conditions and crop response under current climate conditions. In this study the Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model was used. The ALEXI model uses the morning surface temperature (LST) rise and provides information on the surface moisture status. In this paper correlations between yields and satellite indicators of crop water use or evapotranspiration (ET) were studied for the period 2002-2014. Correlations were studied for winter wheat at district scale in Vysocina, Jihomoravsky and Olomoucky regions since winter wheat is one of the traditional and most important crops grown in these regions. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) was used for these correlations as an ET-based index. Time series of Pearson correlation coefficient (r) computed between ESI and winter wheat yields at district scale were analysed. Strongest correlations are associated with districts within the Southern Moravian lowlands in Jihomoravsky and Olomoucky region, where frequency of occurrence of severe drought was highest over the period of record. Severe drought resulted in significant yield impacts, particularly in years 2003 and 2012. Correlations tend to be lower over the highlands districts of Vysocina and surroundings. In these districts, yields are more temperature than moisture limited and were more stable over the period of record.
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Agroclimatic analysis of perspective changes of starting production conditions for agricultural entities and related impacts to land valuation system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The aim of this report is to evaluate the analyses prepared within the contractual research collaboration implemented within the project number of the EEA-CZ02 1-039-2015-OV-called "Complex planning, monitoring, information and educational tools to adapt the territory to the impacts of climate change with major focus on agricultural and forest landscape management" funded by the EEA Fund 2009 - 2014 program CZ02 - Biodiversity and ecosystem services /. The study focuses on the South Moravian Region (SMR) and follows a report assessing the impact of expected climatic conditions prepared for the above-mentioned project in October 2016. Like the previous study, this part is processed based on the 5 selected global circulation models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios and the period 2021-2040. Since a detailed description of the scenarios includes a previous report confines itself in this text only on the most important outputs relevant to SMR.
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Drought periods in 2014
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Farda, Aleš
The first half of year 2014 was characterized by the occurrence of extreme weather. Episode without precipitation were alternated with thunderstorms, temperature were mostly above normal and was occurred first heat wave. The year began with a very mild winter, when amount of snow was only 27% of long term average and in agricultural region South Moravia only about 10%. The winter temperature was more than 2 degrees C higher than normal. March and April were characterized by low sum of precipitation mainly again in South Moravia, both months were about 70% of long term average. March and April temperature were significantly above normal (March about more than about 4 degrees C and April more than 2 degrees C). In contrast May was cold and rainy. In the middle of the month there were persistent rainfall, which caused an increase of river levels and flooding several areas. June was again very dry. These weather conditions led to the strong dry episodes during first half of the year.
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Drought monitor for the Czech Republic-www.intersucho.cz
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Balek, Jan ; Možný, M. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Hayes, M. ; Eitzinger, Josef ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Because drought and its impacts are among the worst hydrometeorological extremes (including also Central European conditions), the aim of this paper is to describe the core and use of the Integrated drought monitoring system for the Czech Republic. Land-use, information about soil, vegetation characteristics and meteorological data are used as inputs to validated water balance SoilClim model, which is applied for estimates of actual and reference evapotranspiration and water saturation of the soil profile in % or soil moisture content in mm. Moreover the prognosis of expected soil moisture (based on probabilistic analysis) is calculated for next 1, 2, 4 and 8 weeks. Main results are weekly updated in form of drought occurrence maps, which are published in spatial resolution 500 m for whole territory of the Czech Republic and for all its 76 districts separately. Final maps with detail comments are available at drought topic dedicated web page (ANONYM 3 2014).
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Detection of drought events using combination of satellite data and soil moisture modelling
Semerádová, Daniela ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Bohovič, Roman ; Tadesse, T. ; Hayes, M. ; Wardlow, B. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The use of satellite data offers a potentially well usable tool to accurate drought monitoring. The study examines the space-time possibility of agricultural drought detection using freely available data from the MODIS instrument onboard Terra and Aqua satellites that reflects vegetation condition. Vegetation greenness metrics used in this study are based on the spectral reflectance curves in the visible red and near-infrared part of the spectrum and are expressed in relation to the average for the period of 2000-2014. The results are presented in weekly time step for the whole area of the Czech Republic, and are compared to the drought monitor system, based on the SoilClim dynamic model for soil water content estimates. These data, as well as other parameters, such as soil properties and land use, are integrated at 500 meters spatial resolution.
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Balancing Assessment of Available Water Resources and Moisture Needs within Defined "Irrigation Districts”
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Vizina, A. ; Hanel, M. ; Žalud, Z. ; Lukas, V. ; Dumbrovský, M. ; Růžek, P. ; Daňhelka, J. ; Chuchma, F. ; Novák, P. ; Novotný, I. ; Pavlík, F.
This report is processing research results done within the contractual cooperation of the Institute of Global Change Research (as a research provider) and Státní pozemkový úřad - the Czech National Land Authority (demander), which was prepared in collaboration with other research partners. The report deals with balancing assessment of available water resources and moisture needs within defined "irrigation districts” of the Czech Republic with regard to the ongoing climate change
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